Garner case hangs over NY special election

The special election to replace former Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) could become a proxy fight in the national debate over race relations and police force.

With the GOP in New York City rapidly coalescing around Daniel Donovan, the Staten Island prosecutor at the center of the investigation into the death of Eric Garner, Democrats may have the opening they need to nationalize the race — something that’s helped them win long shot Empire State special elections before. 

{mosads}But even Democrats caution that in blue-collar Staten Island, with a heavy police population that’s far more conservative than the rest of the city, that strategy could backfire. 

But with Donovan as the nominee, the national implications could be far-reaching. The district attorney has faced criticism because a grand jury decided not to indict New York City police officer Daniel Pantaleo in the death of Garner, an unarmed black man. Pantaleo put Garner in a chokehold for allegedly resisting arrest after he was approached for selling loose cigarettes.

Garner’s last words, “I can’t breathe,” have become a national meme displayed on T-shirts and other accessories worn by famous athletes and artists. 

With Donovan as the candidate, Democrats could seek to turn the race into a national referendum on the racially charged case, which followed the lack of indictment in the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Mo., that provoked protests across the country. 

John Zogby, an independent pollster in New York, said a Donovan candidacy would be “made to order” for Democrats, and said the party would be wise to “pump money into the race and make it a national cause.”

“If the district attorney is running, you have a candidate who becomes a symbol of that controversy,” he said. “It may have been the grand jury that made the decision [not to prosecute], but it becomes about something else when you run that kind of in-your-face candidate.”

Strategists and pollsters say there is little chance for a Democrat to win the conservative Staten Island district unless money and national attention is heaped upon the race and it becomes about something more than a local head-to-head matchup between a Republican and a Democratic candidate.

 The Conservative Campaign Committee, a Tea Party-affiliated PAC, is already fundraising on the prospect that Democrats will do just that.

“Democrats immediately announced that they would make the death of Eric Garner, who died while being arrested by NYPD officers, a central issue in this campaign — in effect nationalizing the election, and providing Barack Obama and Al Sharpton yet another platform from which they can divide Americans,” the group said in a fundraising email.

The New York special election, which could come at a slow time in the campaign cycle, will likely garner outsized media attention even without Donovan. If the prosecutor of the Garner case is running, Republicans expect an even bigger sideshow.

“Absolutely it would turn into a media circus,” said Bill O’Reilly, a New York-based Republican strategist.

But Republicans in New York say Donovan has an unimpeachable record and is wildly popular in his home district. He won a third term in 2012, taking nearly 70 percent of the vote.

“He has about as good a reputation as you could possibly have in politics,” O’Reilly said. “He’s considered one of the good guys and a straight shooter.”

O’Reilly noted that Staten Island is among the most pro-police districts in New York, and said attacks against Donovan over the Garner case might actually help him. Even some Democrats say that the party would be wise to focus elsewhere.

“If Democrats try to make it a national referendum on police practices they’ll get their heads handed to them,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a New York Democratic strategist. “Staten Island is full of cops, firefighters and civil servants. If [Democrats] try to mess with the cops, Donovan’s supporters will be there for him quicker than lightning.”

This dynamic is further exacerbated by the icy relations between police in New York City and its Democratic mayor, Bill de Blasio. In a series of high-profile snubs, police upset with de Blasio’s reaction to the Garner case have booed and turned their backs on him at public events.

In addition, legal challenges surrounding the Garner case are ongoing, so that another shoe may drop in the case. On Monday, a Staten Island judge listened to arguments from civil liberties activists about why the grand jury transcripts and other information from the case should be made public.

“If something more comes out, that’s a whole different story,” said a Democratic strategist.

National referendums have become a hallmark of recent special elections in New York.

In 2011, Republicans picked up what was believed to be a safe seat for Democrats in the race to replace former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.). That special election became a national referendum on President Obama’s agenda, especially on his policies toward Israel in the heavily Jewish district. 

Earlier that year, Democrats won an upset victory for the seat held by former Rep. Chris Lee (R-N.Y.) by making the election about the GOP’s proposed cuts to Medicare and Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget more broadly.

But even if Democrats can successfully turn the Grimm special election into a national affair, the seat remains a tough pickup for them.

Grimm trounced his Democratic opponent by double-digits to win a third term in office in November, even though he spent little money and had a 20-count federal indictment hanging over his head. Grimm pleaded guilty to tax evasion last month as part of a deal and resigned from Congress at the beginning of the week. 

Democrats’ only recent success in the district came when the party was at a high point in 2008 and the Republican incumbent, former Rep. Vito Fossella (R-N.Y.), declined to run for reelection because of a DUI and revelations that he fathered a child out of wedlock.

Former Rep. Michael McMahon (D-N.Y.) won the election to succeed Fossella, but lost the next time around to Grimm.

Assemblyman Michael Cusick (D-N.Y.) is currently the top choice among Democrats in the state to run for the open seat. He’s seen in the party as a strong candidate, but any Democrat running in the conservative district would have their work cut out for them. McMahon could also bid for a comeback. 

“It’s still an uphill fight for Democrats,” the Democratic strategist said. “Especially when you consider the kind of electorate that will turn out for an off-cycle special election.”