Cotton takes lead over Pryor in Ark.

Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) might have seized the upper hand against Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) in an important Senate battleground following months of hard punching by both sides.

Cotton has inched ahead of Pryor in most recent public polling of the race, as Pryor struggles to overcome an unpopular president and attacks on his own record. 

{mosads}Strategists on both sides say the race remains close, but Republicans are feeling increasingly hopeful about their chances in the critical contest. 

“It’s a very close race, and it’s really a race that’s all about turnout,” said Hendrix College professor Jay Barth. “I’d give Cotton the slight advantage.”

Cotton has led in five of the last six nonpartisan public polls of the race going back to late July, with his lead ranging from 2 to 5 points in most surveys. Internal GOP polling is even more bullish for Cotton.

Democrats privately admit that the race has moved toward Cotton since early in the summer, but they say it is still a pure toss-up. An NBC News/Marist poll over the weekend pegged Cotton with a 5-point lead, 45 percent to 40 percent.

A recently released survey conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm had Pryor up by 2 points, narrower than the 5-point edge he had in a poll conducted for the state Democratic Party in early August. 

Democrats believe the race remains very competitive and argue their superior ground game operations will help boost Pryor by a few points if the race remains deadlocked heading into the homestretch.

For months, Cotton and Pryor have been trading sharp attacks over Medicare, Social Security, ObamaCare, immigration and a panoply of other issues. Arkansas observers say both campaigns had long ago reached saturation point on the airwaves.

“I don’t see any major message out there that’s going to change the trajectory of this election. … Barring a mental mistake that trips one of them up, this is going to be close,” said Roby Brock, editor of the nonpartisan Arkansas Talk Business.

As both sides look to cut through the noise, they’ve taken a few more risks — and the more controversial hits might be moving the needle slightly toward Cotton.

Nonpartisan observers say Pryor’s ad accusing Cotton of “voting against preparing America for pandemics like Ebola” might have backfired. Local commentators knocked the spot has being hyperbolic. Cotton and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have also been focusing on immigration, accusing Pryor of supporting “amnesty.”

Cotton, meanwhile, has been on the airwaves looking to undo damage Pryor has inflicted with attacks on entitlement programs. In one spot, featuring his mom, Cotton promises to protect the programs. Another hard-hitting spot says Pryor voted to give illegal immigrants Social Security benefits.

Pryor shot back immediately on the “amnesty” claims with an ad pointing out Cotton was attacking a bipartisan immigration bill backed by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

In two new ads out this week, Pryor seeks to tap into Arkansans’ populist economic anger.

One spot ties Cotton to the “New York billionaire[s]” Charles and David Koch, whose conservative groups have spent heavily in the race, featuring laid off former Koch Industries employees saying the Kochs “killed” the economy of Fordyce, Ark., before saying Cotton “promised to protect their special tax breaks for moving jobs overseas.”

The other spot features the senator touting his “made in America” bill that would end tax breaks for outsourcing companies.

Pryor allies argue he’s in good shape and say any movement in the race toward Cotton could be attributed to a higher number of undecided Republicans early in the race and heavier ad spending on the GOP side in the last month, especially in smaller markets across the state, where the two sides will be spending equally in the coming weeks.

They also argue that, if the race stays close, their field game will crush the GOP’s. Democrats have spent millions of dollars to boost their ground game in what they say is their largest field program in Arkansas. They have more than 40 offices open across the state. Pryor performs better among registered voters — the key is getting them to turn out. 

“We’ve always said this race would be close. That continues to be the case. We are not only competitive but have a clear path to victory that we are following and expect nothing but a positive outcome,” Pryor spokesman Erik Dorey said.

“At the end of the day, we win this race on the strength of our ground game and the strength of our message, and Arkansans are deeply skeptical of Congressman Cotton and his votes against Arkansas seniors, students, women and working families,” he continued. “We have a number of tools on our side they don’t, and those tools are going to make a difference in the end.”

Republicans say there hasn’t been a major shift in the race for months, but they believe President Obama is dragging Pryor down.

“The polls go up, and the polls go down, but the one number that has remained constant is 90 percent, which is the number of times Sen. Pryor votes with President Obama on everything from ObamaCare to bailouts to immigration,” Cotton spokesman David Ray said.

Cotton recently sought to undercut one big, local issue, saying he supports increasing Arkansas’s minimum wage, but Democrats have long said getting the referendum on the ballot was more about turning out their base than using it as a wedge issue against the GOP.

Republicans point out that more of their voters than Democrats have registered to vote in the past year. The GOP has 11 field offices across the state and routinely tout the party’s new and improved canvassing phone app as evidence Republicans have caught up on the technology side.

Some in the GOP privately admit their field game will likely be outpaced, but they remain skeptical that Democrats can turn out their voters at significantly higher levels than in past elections.

“They can do all the turnout they want on the Dem side. There just aren’t enough votes,” one top Arkansas Republican said. “You don’t think Democrats turned out for Obama in 2008 and 2012?”

Some Arkansas Republicans worried early on that Cotton’s record and awkward demeanor on the stump could doom him. But they say that since then, he’s vastly improved.

“He’s gotten better on all fronts, period. He’s shown practicality in some recent votes; he’s shown more attention to the retail side of politics,” one GOP operative said. “This may have been a 50-50 race six months ago, but it ain’t now. I think Cotton wins.”