Democrats hold a double-digit lead over Republicans on the generic ballot ahead of the midterm elections in November, according to a new American Barometer poll.
The survey, conducted by Hill.TV and HarrisX polling company, found that 43 percent of those polled said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 32 percent of respondents said they would cast their vote for the Republican candidate.
The percentage of respondents who said they would vote for the Democratic candidate remains unchanged from a Harvard Caps Harris poll conducted in July, with 43 percent of respondents saying in July they would support the Democratic candidate in the ballot box.
However, support for the Republican candidate appears to have dropped 4 points in the latest survey.
“There’s a difference in enthusiasm. Democrats [are] much more eager to come to the poll than Republicans. [It’s] sort of a flip of 2010, the Tea Party year, when the Republicans were much more active, and much more enthusiastic,” the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion Lee Miringoff, told Hill.TV’s Joe Concha on “What America’s Thinking,” referring to voter enthusiasm in Democratic primaries.
“These generic ballot questions are tapping into that, although, ultimately in November it’s district by district, and there’s no national election. So the generic may slightly distort what might occur in November,” he added.
Republicans are preparing to defend both houses of Congress from Democrats in November.
The House map appears to bode well for Democrats, who need to flip 24 GOP-held seats to take back control of the lower chamber.
The Cook Political Report has rated three Republican-held districts as likely being won by Democrats, while it has another seven leaning toward Democrats.
There is only one House seat currently held by a Democrat listed as leaning or likely Republican.
Cook also lists 35 GOP held seats as toss-ups, while only 3 Democratic seats are also listed as toss-ups.
Taking back the Senate could prove to be more of a challenge for Democrats, who need to hold onto more than two dozen seats that are up for reelection this year and flip at least two Republican-held seats.
The American Barometer poll was conducted on August 12-13 among 999 registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
— Julia Manchester
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