Campaign

Dem holds slim lead in Pa. special election: poll

by Ben Kamisar - 03/05/18 11:48 AM ET

Democrat Conor Lamb holds a slim lead in a new poll ahead of next week’s high-profile special House election in Pennsylvania, a sign that Democrats could pull off an upset in the deep-red district.

A new poll from Emerson College, released Monday, shows Lamb with 48 percent of the vote, compared to GOP state Rep. Rick Saccone’s 45 percent. Only 7 percent of voters are undecided ahead of next Tuesday’s election.

The polling shows Lamb voters as more enthusiastic and engaged than Saccone voters. The Democrat also has a stronger net-favorability rating than Saccone.

{mosads}Both sides are hoping that a victory could help set the narrative ahead of the midterms, since the race is one of the last competitive special elections before November.

Republican outside groups have been furiously spending in the district in the hopes of avoiding an upset in a district President Trump won by 20 points. They’ve tarred Lamb by attempting to link him to former President Obama and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), although Lamb has said he wouldn’t vote for Pelosi to keep her leadership role. Republicans have also challenged Lamb’s record as a prosecutor.

But Lamb has largely weathered those attacks and is seeking to distance himself from the national party and frame himself as the pragmatic choice in the race. He’s significantly outraised Saccone, and has received a modest boost from outside groups.

The White House has sent significant resources into the district for Saccone. President Trump will return to the district next week for a campaign rally. Vice President Pence campaigned for Saccone there last month.

Lamb’s campaign is also bringing a high-profile surrogate into town — former Vice President Joe Biden is set to join Lamb on the trail this week.

Emerson polled 474 registered voters by calling landline telephones and through an internet panel from March 1-3. The poll has a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.

Tags Donald Trump Joe Biden Nancy Pelosi