Analysis: No winner in New York 20

As the vote count seesaws between two candidates in New York’s 20th Congressional District, both parties are trying to claim a victory neither has actually achieved.

Democrats and Republicans will do their best to spin a win by venture capitalist Scott Murphy (D) or Assemblyman Jim Tedisco (R) as having broad national meanings. But political observers and analysts have largely drawn the conclusion that such a razor-thin election can only be seen as a draw.

{mosads}With most of the district-wide recanvassing complete as of Friday, Murphy leads Tedisco by 35 votes. Saratoga County, from which about one-third of the district’s vote comes, and the smaller Washington County remain to be counted next week.

Republicans have contended a Tedisco victory will indicate the end of President Obama’s honeymoon, fueled by anger over major bonuses for AIG executives and distress with big-spending Democrats in Washington.

GOP strategists say a Tedisco win would be a major achievement, pointing out that Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), who held the district for two terms, won re-election in 2008 with more than 60 percent of the vote. Tedisco’s victory would run counter to recent history in the Northeast, where Democrats have achieved significant gains.

Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, refused to directly comment on the importance of the race to the national GOP, focusing instead on the continuing count.

“Jim Tedisco was ahead going into the absentee ballot count, and we are confident that he will remain ahead once every eligible vote is counted,” Lindsay said. “Until then, our primary focus is to preserve the integrity of this election process.”

Democrats, on the other hand, have portrayed a Murphy win as further evidence that the national Republican Party remains adrift in the electoral wilderness, void of ideas and bereft of hope of reclaiming their erstwhile congressional majorities.

The party points to the major advantage Republicans held in voter registration — there are about 70,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats who live in Gillibrand’s old district. Democrats constantly call it a red-tinted district despite President Obama taking a majority there.

Gillibrand, too, Democrats say, beat an ethically-troubled Republican and spent millions on her way to a big win. They note Murphy climbed on top from an early deficit, indicating a significant comeback.

“In a Republican-leaning district, Scott Murphy went from 21 points down to winning the majority of votes on Election Day by focusing on the President’s economic recovery plan,” said Jennifer Crider, communications director at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “That shows the power of voters’ desire for progress over obstruction and the impact of running a better campaign on economic issues.”

Both parties, to be certain, realized the importance of a win and threw all they had at the seat. And in doing so, both parties made political errors they may come to regret.

Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele made the contest a central focus of his first two months as head of the GOP, and NRCC chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas) and Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) have each invested their own reputations on Tedisco’s behalf. Without a clear win, some could lose confidence in all three leaders.

Tedisco also publicly distanced himself from the national party and said he would run a local campaign without the NRCC’s message, giving pundits the opportunity to recall that having an “R” after one’s name, at least in the Northeast, is still political suicide.

Democrats spent less on Murphy’s behalf, but by allowing both Obama and Vice President Joe Biden to get involved in the race, they ensured any result would be seen as a national referendum on the early days of the administration, when many bold economic policies dominated headlines. A loss for Murphy would certainly be viewed as a reproach of the president.

With much risked and with such a close election, either Scott Murphy or Jim Tedisco will be headed to Congress. But both parties failed in their quest; Democrats did not win a sweeping victory for Obama’s agenda, while Republicans — most notably Steele — could not prove the party is on an early course for a comeback.

Party strategists will spin even the smallest win as a major storyline, proof that whichever party is victorious is the country’s dominant political force. But in truth, the race to replace Gillibrand should be seen as little more than a push.