A split GOP

But they can also reverse in a matter of weeks. 

{mosads}In late October, President Obama was trying to convince Congress to pass his comprehensive jobs package. But a fair number of Democrats balked at the plan, sparking stories (including in this newspaper) that highlighted the defections. 

When the Senate GOP offered its jobs plan this fall, Obama threatened to veto it, but 10 Democrats backed the narrow measure.

The White House, at the time, was scrambling, seeking to spin the vote counts by noting that a majority of Democrats was with the president.

Republicans in Congress, meanwhile, were united.

Six weeks later, the political landscape has a much different look. 

Obama and congressional Democrats now have the upper hand, bashing the GOP for refusing to embrace their payroll tax legislation. 

Republicans are divided, with some saying they are against the tax cut and others calling for the cut to be paid for. 

Obama, and a few Republican members, have said they are baffled as to why Republicans are even talking about paying for a tax cut. The president and these lawmakers note that the GOP has long made the argument that tax cuts pay for themselves.

Last week, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) offered a payroll tax extension bill, the costs of which were offset. The measure was rejected by the majority of McConnell’s colleagues, including leadership lawmakers. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) voted for the legislation and defected on the Democratic alternative. Every Democrat rejected the GOP leadership amendment.

Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) is expected to unveil his bill soon. But the GOP is stuck in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t situation. Obama is using the bully pulpit every day to lambaste Republicans for inaction. And once the GOP acts, it faces a rebellion within its own ranks.

One way or another, the payroll tax holiday will be extended, and Democrats know they have the negotiating leverage.

Republicans are divided in other areas, too. Rank-and-file members on both sides of the Capitol are objecting to plans to pass an omnibus measure over the next couple of weeks.

And many Republicans on Capitol Hill are fretting that former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) will win the Republican nomination. So endorsements for ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) have been rolling in.

Without a doubt, the post-Thanksgiving period has been a good run for Democrats and a rough patch for the GOP.

But, as we say, the winds can shift quickly and without notice.