Game plans for tonight’s GOP debate

The televised presidential debates have a way of reshaping the presidential race, signifying the end of one chapter and launching the beginning of the next.

{mosads}Since the last debate six weeks ago, Dr. Ben Carson has surged to the lead in four polls of Iowa Republican primary voters and also led in yesterday’s CBS News/New York Times national poll over Donald Trump — breaking Trump’s streak leading in national polls.

The field is taking shape and it is becoming clear that only four to five candidates have an existing path to the nomination in what remains a very unpredictable race.

Let’s look at the strategic objectives each candidate faces tonight.

Donald Trump: Trump’s polling has remained incredibly durable, with his national lead lasting over 100 days. While the real estate mogul is losing some support in Iowa, he remains in the lead by a very healthy margin in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Has Trump peaked? Tonight Trump will again need to convince voters that he is a credible GOP nominee who can win the presidency and that he is worthy of the title of commander in chief. He should focus on his outsider approach, which has differentiated him so far. He will want to go after Carson, since as Carson is his greatest competitor currently, but that is risky since Carson has the highest net favorable rating in the field.

Ben Carson: Carson has the most riding on this debate. He is now viewed as the national front-runner, and he will get more time and attention at the debate because of it. His calm demeanor and thoughtful, commonsense approach is appealing in person and on interviews, but it translates as low energy on TV. He needs to be polished, clear and strong tonight. I expect him to have to play defense on recent comments about the federal role in education, a desire to essentially end Medicare and questions about whether he was involved in fetal donation as a surgeon. He is the new front-runner going in; will he be the front-runner coming out?

Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.): Rubio is the most naturally gifted candidate in the field, and he is beginning to be a real threat. The Jeb Bush and Rubio camps despise each other and Bush’s team appears to be moving into a contrast phase with Rubio, with unfavorable comparisons to President Obama and attacks over his missed votes in the Senate. Rubio should rise above that and continue to be the best-positioned candidate to unite the mainstream and grassroots wings of the party in March. I expect more of a focus on the economy tonight, which will give Rubio less of a chance to show off his foreign policy depth of knowledge.

Former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.): Bush has gone through a brutal few weeks. He has cut staff pay and continues to make mistakes on the trail that raise questions about whether he can win. His first debate performance was underwhelming and his second was better, but still not good enough. Does Bush really want this? Is he willing to do what it takes? Can he slay the Trump dragon? He needs to show fire, poise and gravitas. There is very little enthusiasm for Bush right now — he needs to create it. A renewed focus on his excellent record as governor would be a good place to start.

Carly Fiorina: The former Hewlett-Packard CEO was the clear winner in the last debate, but her campaign appears to have let the moment slip away, as her polling spike only lasted a few weeks. She may be the winner again tonight, but will it matter? What is her path through the early states?

Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas): Cruz’s moment appears to be around the corner. He is being widely credited for running the best campaign, he has the most money in the bank and he is built to compete for the nomination with a savvy delegate strategy. He has not won the previous debates, but he’s done well and has not created any problems for himself. Will he finally contrast his background and views with Trump and Carson? I suspect he plays it safe again as he and his campaign like where they are. Expect him to trash the bipartisan budget deal.

Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.): Huckabee needs to win social conservatives back to his side and create momentum. He is getting lost in the race right now, losing altitude to Carson and Cruz. I do not expect this debate to offer much time on social issues.

Gov. Chris Christie (N.J.): Christie has been thoughtful and substantive as a candidate, but he is getting lost in the noise. He can get some of his mojo back by going after Trump. Will he go after his friend? For Christie, it’s New Hampshire or bust.

Gov. John Kasich (Ohio): Kasich has been a nonentity as a candidate: the Jon Huntsman of the cycle. He has put all his chips in New Hampshire and has focused on a John McCain-like town hall strategy. Bush is floundering, but his support is going to Rubio, not Kasich. The Ohio governor flashed anger yesterday over “ridiculous” policy comments made by Carson and Trump. Will he use his famous temper tonight to create a viral moment?

Sen. Rand Paul: Paul is on life support. I suspect he will go after Cruz tonight. In politics, you punch up, and there is no one below him right now.

Mackowiak is syndicated columnist; an Austin, Texas-based Republican consultant; and a former Capitol Hill and George W. Bush administration aide.