Dems face tough odds for Louisiana Senate seat

Triumphant Democrats, still buzzing from taking the governor’s mansion in Louisiana over the weekend, face long odds in carrying that momentum into the 2016 Senate race to replace outgoing Sen. David Vitter (R-La.).

Independent political watchers in Louisiana say Democrat John Bel Edwards benefited from a perfect storm in defeating Vitter in the state’s gubernatorial election. In his concession speech, Vitter announced he would not seek reelection to the Senate next year.

{mosads}But few expect a similar confluence of events will propel a Democratic challenger in the open race to replace Vitter, even in a presidential election year with the Senate majority hanging in the balance.

Ambitious Republicans in the state are already moving quickly into the race, sensing opportunity in a red state that has become emblematic of the difficult political terrain Democrats face in the Deep South.

“The governor’s race was an anomaly,” said Robert Mann, a political analyst in the state. “I don’t expect we’ll see a lot of Democrats suddenly rushing into this race. Objective observers don’t see Louisiana as a state where Democrats can suddenly start competing just because of Edwards’s victory.”

After beginning the race as the prohibitive favorite to succeed outgoing Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-La.), Vitter was clobbered by Edwards on Election Day, following weeks of nasty infighting among Republicans.

Vitter had accumulated high-powered enemies in the state over the years, from Jindal on down. In the heat of the race, Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne (R-La.) accused Vitter of being “corrupt” and crossed party lines to endorse Edwards.

Vitter entered the weekend badly damaged by Republican attacks stemming from a 2007 prostitution scandal and allegations that he had hired a private investigator to snoop on a political adversary.

Edwards, who falls on the conservative end of the Democratic spectrum, was viewed as an acceptable successor to Jindal, who will leave the governor’s mansion deeply unpopular in the state.

The drama was a sobering reminder for Republicans that they can’t wholly rely on underlying fundamentals to achieve victory in the state.

“Louisiana should be a lesson for Republicans running for state office, that it’s hugely counterproductive to develop super-PACs to spend all their money attacking each other,” Fred Malek, a top GOP fundraiser and finance chairman of the Republican Governors Association, told The Hill over the weekend.

But barring a replay of the intraparty attacks as governor’s race, the results don’t indicate a structural shift in a state where white voters have abandoned the Democratic Party and African-Americans make up only about 30 percent of the population, said independent pollster Bernie Pinsonat.

“Nothing has changed,” Pinsonat said. “Republicans are still firmly in control. It just shows that if you have an election where they spend all of their energy destroying one another, they’re going to have a more difficult time.”

Vitter’s exit paves the way for several Republicans, who began positioning themselves for higher office after Saturday’s election. 

Reps. Charles Boustany, Jr. (R-La.) and John Fleming (R-La.) were the first to jump into the race on Monday, and both will have an initial money advantage based on their proximity to a national fundraising network.

Fleming, a co-founder of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, will enter the race the best-funded candidate, with $2.3 million cash on hand. 

Boustany, a member of the powerful Ways and Means Committee who was recently named chairman of the Tax Policy Subcommittee, is not far behind, with $1.5 million in his campaign account.

State Treasurer John Kennedy and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle are also believed to be eyeing the race, and each has strengths.

Kennedy, who has already run and won statewide, is among the most popular elected officials in the state.

Angelle, meanwhile, raised his profile running for governor this year. He finished third in a jungle primary where only the top two advance. Some Republicans believe that had Angelle finished second in the primary instead of Vitter, he would have defeated Edwards in the runoff.

Former Air Force Col. Rob Maness, who ran for Senate in 2014 but finished behind now-Sen. Bill Cassidy in the jungle primary, is also believed to be considering another bid. 

Still, Democrats are not giving up on the state, believing that another bitter primary could potentially provide an opening.

“Louisiana voters resoundingly opted for new leadership focused on leveling the playing field to help grow the middle class, and we will recruit a strong candidate who can present exactly that choice next fall,” said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokeswoman Lauren Passalacqua.

Sources tell The Hill that former Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) is not interested in running again. However, her brother, Mitch Landrieu (D-La.), the mayor of liberal New Orleans, is considering a run.

Mitch Landrieu has strong name identification and could raise money, but some believe he would be more likely to run were Vitter still in the contest.

“There’s a sense that the timing isn’t particularly good for him,” said Mann. “I’m not sure he’s in the same mold of a Democrat like Edwards, so he might not be able to replicate that success.”

A Democratic candidate is expected to make it through the jungle primary next November into the Dec. 8 runoff, but the race will become a steep climb from there, and political watchers are doubtful that outside liberal groups or national Democrats will be eager to spend on the race.

While President Bill Clinton won Louisiana twice, his 1996 effort was the last time a Democratic presidential candidate carried the state. President Obama is deeply unpopular in Louisiana, and few believe Democratic presidential Hillary Clinton, who opposes the Keystone XL Pipeline, is capable of replicating her husband’s success in the energy-rich state.

“Really, it’s just a matter of Republicans acting civil toward one another and not destroying each other’s chances to keep the seat,” Pinsonat said.

Still, the gubernatorial election is a reminder that anything is possible.

“Back in May I said there was no chance Edwards would ever be elected governor,” said Mann. “A lot of us were proven to be spectacularly wrong.”