The Trail 2016: Rubio + Cruz + 0.68 = Trump

by Jonathan Swan - 02/24/16 5:41 PM ET

Welcome to THE TRAIL 2016, your daily rundown from The Hill on all the latest news in the White House, Senate and House races.

After Donald Trump won resoundingly in New Hampshire and South Carolina, a number of political pundits — seemingly unwilling to accept reality — indulged in an fantastical mathematical practice that we will refer to as Trumpmatics.

Trumpmatics works like this: The pundit ignores Trump’s victory, and instead focuses on cobbling together vote percentages of the second, third, fourth, even fifth placegetters. If Rubio’s “establishment lane” vote could be added to John Kasich’s and Jeb Bush’s, then throw in a few evangelicals from Ben Carson, etcetera, then… Trump loses!

As Trump likes to point out, elections don’t work like that. But even if they did, Trump’s victory on Tuesday night in Nevada would have confounded even the most delusional practitioner of Trumpmatics. When Rubio’s 23.85 percent is added to Ted Cruz’s 21.38 percent, it gets to 45.23 percent, which is still 0.68 percent short of Trump’s winning percentage.

Cut another way: Trump won more votes in Nevada last night (34,531) than the total number of votes cast in the 2012 Nevada caucuses (32,894). And even the Trumpmatically-minded pundits are now conceding that the 2016 GOP nomination is now the front-runner’s to lose.

TheHill.com will keep you posted on all the latest shocks and rumbles in this unprecedented presidential campaign, including a report on how Washington Republicans are handling Trump’s fortunes, a look at lobbyists who have donated to “outsider” candidates and a glance into what promises to be a brutal House race centering on ethical questions.

RACE TO 1600 PENN

MITTENS ATTAX: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: Mitt Romney is going after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump for not yet releasing his taxes. “Frankly, I think we have a good reason to believe that there’s a bombshell in Donald Trump’s taxes,” the 2012 GOP nominee told Fox News on Wednesday.

THE CAPITOL WAKES UP TO TRUMP: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Donald Trump has secured his first two endorsements from members of Congress following his big win in Nevada’s caucuses. Reps. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.) and Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) on Wednesday both endorsed Trump, who looks increasingly likely to become the party’s nominee.

THE KINGDOM COMES TO CLINTON: The Hill’s Jesse Byrnes reports: Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid has officially endorsed Hillary Clinton for president. Reid is the highest-ranking Democrat to throw his support behind Clinton; and he also happens to helm the most powerful political machine in Democratic politics. Reid’s endorsement comes days after Clinton won his home-state Nevada caucuses.

SCOTUS CURVEBALL: The Hill’s Harper Neidig reports: Among the most important 2016 storylines concerns the fight to replace the late justice Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court. President Obama will be trying to put vulnerable Republicans — who have pre-emptively rejected his pick — in the most politically awkward spot possible. One way to do that? Float a trial balloon in the shape of the popular Nevada Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval. This intriguing story was broken Wednesday by the Washington Post.

DONALD’S TO LOSE: The Hill’s Jonathan Easley reports: The delegate math is starting to look grim for Trump’s rivals, with the front-runner poised to close in on the 1,237 needed to win once the GOP contest turns from proportional states to winner-take-all.

MARCO-MATICS: The Hill’s Jesse Byrnes reports: Marco Rubio argued Wednesday that his Republican presidential rival Donald Trump had “underperformed” in the Nevada caucuses the previous night, which Trump took handily for his third consecutive win.

NOT FEELING THE BERG: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Over half of Americans would not vote for former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg for president, according to a poll released Wednesday. Nearly six in 10 voters in the Associated Press/GfK survey have no interest in backing a hypothetical Bloomberg bid.

WEEKEND IS BERNIE’S: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders insists he has not given up on winning the South Carolina primary this weekend. “No, no, no,” he said when asked by reporters whether he is writing off the Palmetto State, where Clinton holds a strong lead, driven by her popularity among black voters.

ODDS AND ENDS:

WOE IS HILLARY: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: Hillary Clinton complains that she is held to a different standard than other candidates when discussing the release of transcripts of paid speeches she’s made. “Why is there one standard for me and not for everybody else?” she said.

THE ACCOMPLISHMENT QUESTION: The Hill’s Jesse Byrnes reports: John Kasich’s campaign on Wednesday tweaked GOP presidential rival Marco Rubio after a surrogate for the Florida senator struggled to name one of his accomplishments in Congress.

PHILADELPHIA STORY: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: Bernie Sanders will take the Democratic presidential fight all the way to the convention, his spokeswoman says. “We believe… we’re in this for the long haul,” campaign spokeswoman Symone Sanders told CNN on Wednesday. “This is a fight that’s going to go all the way through to the convention.”

POLL POSITION

THE LONE PERCENTAGE STATE: The Hill’s Jesse Byrnes reports: Trump is within 1 point of Ted Cruz in Cruz’s home state, a new poll states. Cruz has 29 percent support in Texas, followed closely by Trump, at 28 percent, and Marco Rubio, at 25 percent, according to an Emerson College poll released Wednesday.

TRUMPING OKLAHOMA: The Hill’s Bradford Richardson reports: Republican primary front-runner Donald Trump has widened his lead in Oklahoma, according to a new poll. The poll by Cole Hargrave Snodgrass and Associates finds Trump leading the state with 29 percent support, followed by Marco Rubio with 21 percent and Ted Cruz with 20 percent.

THE DAILY TRUMP

BIBLE BASHING: The Hill’s Jesse Byrnes reports: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump claimed Wednesday that Secretary of State John Kerry hasn’t read the Bible. “Obviously Kerry did not read ‘The Art of the Deal,'” Trump told a religious audience in Virginia, referring to his own book before adding, “Probably didn’t read the Bible, either.” The billionaire GOP front-runner had previously complained about Pope Francis questioning Trump’s own faith.

A SWEET INSULT: The Hill’s Jonathan Easley reports:The Donald Trump on Wednesday mocked Hillary Clinton for cozying up to President Obama, saying she’s “like a marshmallow” and trying to avoid prosecution for mishandling classified information. “Boy, did you ever see somebody so nice to the president?,” Trump asked at a Christian Broadcast Network forum in Virginia.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“I’ll cross that bridge when I get there, but we’ll lose.”

— Republican South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, when asked whether he would vote for Trump if the billionaire is the GOP nominee.

CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGNS

NECK-AND-NECK: The Washington Post reports: The two Democrats vying to succeed retiring U.S. Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) are neck and neck with less than two months before the primary, and a large chunk of likely Democratic voters remain undecided, according to a new poll from Goucher College.

MONEY WATCH

CROSSING PARTY LINES: The Hill’s Cristina Marcos reports: Florida Republican Senate candidate Rep. David Jolly took to the House floor on Wednesday to lament the pressures lawmakers face to raise money for reelection. The second-term lawmaker has introduced legislation that would prohibit members of Congress from personally soliciting campaign donations, though they could still attend fundraisers and speak to donors.

MEGA CAUTIOUS: Politico reports: As Donald Trump picks up momentum, the chances of a well-funded assault to block him from the Republican presidential nomination are dramatically dwindling, according to interviews with about a dozen donors and operatives who are appalled by the billionaire real estate showman’s campaign.

WHAT WE ARE WATCHING FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW:

(All times Eastern)

Megyn Kelly hosts Texas town hall at 9 tonight with Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Ben Carson on Fox News.

Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Ben Carson have a debate sponsored by CNN and Telemundo at 8:30 pm. Thursday.

Hillary Clinton holds four campaign events in South Carolina on Thursday — Kingstree at 11:30 a.m.; a 2 p.m. event with New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker in Florence; Myrtle Beach at 5 p.m. and North Charleston at 7:45 p.m. Meantime, husband and former President Bill Clinton stumps for her today at 7 p.m. in Richmond, Thursday in South Carolina (Rock Hill, Spartanburg, Winnsboro) and Friday in South Carolina (Aiken, Bluffton).

Bernie Sanders holds a rally in Tulsa, Okla., tonight at 8 p.m. and at Baldwin Wallace University in Berea, Ohio at 10:30 a.m. Thursday. He joins MSNBC’s Chris Matthews for his Hardball College Tour at 7 p.m. at University of Chicago, and then holds a rally at Chicago State University at 9:30 p.m.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Attention sane Republicans. The number to stop Trump is 1236 delegates. Learn it. Love it. LIVE IT. 1236. 1236. 1236. 1236. 1236. 1236. 1236

— Jay Cost (@JayCostTWS) February 24, 2016