Five reasons why Tillerson is likely to get through

President-elect Donald Trump surprised Washington this week when he announced his plan to nominate Exxon Mobil Chairman and CEO Rex Tillerson to head the State Department.

Senators in both parties have expressed uneasiness with Tillerson’s ties to Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), an influential member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he had “serious concerns” about the nomination, and Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), members of the Armed Services Committee, also expressed reservations.

{mosads}By the weekend, however, the obstacles facing Tillerson’s nomination receded as the GOP establishment coalesced behind him and critics within the party tamped down their concerns.

Here are five reasons why Tillerson is likely to win Senate confirmation next year.

Deference to the incoming president

Tillerson benefits from the Senate’s long tradition of giving an incoming president wide latitude to pick his Cabinet, something that potential swing votes on both sides of the aisle have cited in recent days.

Unlike judicial appointments, which are usually tougher to move through the chamber, senior executive branch nominees only serve for a few years. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack is the only member of President Obama’s Cabinet to serve all eight years of his administration.

“I tend to give the president wide deference as long as the person is qualified. I voted for Loretta Lynch much to the consternation of many Republicans,” said Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), a potential swing vote on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who faces a tough reelection in a state Trump carried with nearly 70 percent of the vote, says he will let Trump’s Cabinet picks go through unless extraordinary circumstances arise.

“As a former executive, I believe that the president should have a chance to pick his team,” he stated in a public letter this week.

If Flake and Manchin back Tillerson, it’s hard to see four Republicans voting no and derailing the nomination. Republicans will control 52 seats and incoming Vice President Mike Pence would break a 50-50 tie to advance the nomination.

Strong support from the GOP establishment

Heavyweights in the Republican Party have come out strongly in favor of the Tillerson pick.

Former President George W. Bush called Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) to praise Tillerson’s credentials and express his support, according to a tweet Corker posted Friday.

Tillerson also has backing from former Republican Secretaries of State James Baker and Condoleezza Rice and former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who served under Bush and Obama.

“They’re very significant. For certain senators who don’t know Tillerson, the endorsements from Baker, Rice and Gates will calm some nervousness,” said a senior Senate GOP aide.

The Washington Post reported Friday that former Vice President Dick Cheney is also lobbying for Tillerson. He called Rubio to make the pitch personally, according to The Post.

Democrats will focus on more controversial nominees

To defeat any of Trump’s nominees, Democrats will have to keep the 48 members of their caucus unified, and already Manchin is signaling he’s likely to vote with Republicans barring damaging revelations in the vetting process.

Incoming Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) knows he doesn’t have unlimited political capital, and there are other nominees that his party views as more problematic than Tillerson, namely Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), who has been tapped to serve as attorney general, and Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.), who is slated to head the Department of Health and Human Services.

Sessions has good relationships in the Senate, but allegedly racist comments from his past and his potential authority over civil rights makes him one of the most objectionable nominees to the liberal base.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D), the most influential liberal voice in the caucus, has indicated she plans to fight a major battle over Sessions, urging her colleagues not to “compromise with racism.”

Price has alarmed many Democrats because as secretary of Health and Human Services he could unilaterally neuter much of the Affordable Care Act, Obama’s signature accomplishment, even without action from Congress.

Beyond Sessions and Price, Trump Labor secretary pick Andrew Puzder has drawn Democratic fire for criticizing minimum wage increases and praising increased automation at the workplace.

AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka said his record was “defined by fighting against working people.”

Trump’s choice to head the Environmental Protection Agency, Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, has sparked outrage among Democratic lawmakers and environmentalists because of his skepticism about climate change science.

With the Democratic base focused on fighting Sessions, Price, Puzder and Pruitt, there will be little energy left to wage a fight over Tillerson.

Lower threshold for confirmation

Most of Obama’s nominees had to surpass a 60-vote threshold, which didn’t pose much of a hurdle — none of his Cabinet nominees were blocked by Republicans.

Of his major appointees, only Richard Cordray, who was picked to head the controversial Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, needed the so-called nuclear option — which lowered the threshold for confirmation from 60 votes to a simple majority — to pass.

Obama had to recess-appoint his controversial choice of Donald Berwick to head the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in 2010, but that’s because the Democratic then-chairman of the Finance Committee, former Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), refused to have a hearing on him.

Despite their loud complaining over Trump’s Cabinet picks, Democrats acknowledge there’s little they can do to stop them.

“At the end of the day we’re the ones that changed the rule that allowed presidents to get a cabinet with 51 votes so ultimately — assuming all the Republicans vote for the Cabinet members — other than pointing out flaws, it will be very difficult to defeat any of them,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.).

She noted that Senate Democrats used a rare procedural tactic known as the nuclear option in November of 2013 to lower the threshold for executive branch nominees from 60 votes to a simple majority.

The power and influence of the oil industry

The oil and gas industry traditionally has been one of the most powerful interests in Washington and exerts considerable lobbying muscle on Capitol Hill, especially among Republicans.

This was on display a year ago when the industry, in which Exxon Mobil is a giant, persuaded Congress to lift the 40-year ban on oil exports.

At a time of super PACs and anonymously funded advocacy groups, few if any Republican senators want to become an overnight target of the oil industry by derailing its dream pick to head the State Department.

The oil and gas industry spent $88.6 million on lobbying in 2016, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks the influence industry.

Energy and natural resources interests gave $104 million to candidates and parties in 2015 and 2016, according to the group, and nearly 80 percent of that total went to Republicans.

“The oil and gas industry typically spends tens of millions of dollars between lobbying expenditures and campaign contributions, plus independent expenditures,” said Aaron Scherb, director of legislative affairs at Common Cause, a nonpartisan government watchdog group.

“I know Sen. Rubio expressed some strong reservations about Rex Tillerson and pretty quickly afterwards you saw a lot of pressure on Rubio from oil and gas industry to approve him. It’s a sign of how quickly they mobilize to put pressure on members of Congress,” he added.