Pakistan policy reset key to Trump’s foreign policy legacy

Every American president is sensitive to his legacy. American relations with Pakistan will likely shape President Trump’s legacy even though South Asia does not currently appear high on the American foreign policy menu.

President Trump’s policy could take a departure from the poor stance of his predecessor toward Pakistan. Both countries have few key common interests.

{mosads}Eliminating terrorism is the top priority for both President Trump and Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Trump has vowed to revive the American economy while in office. Sharif began his term in 2013 making a similar promise to the people of Pakistan.

Both leaders desire to reduce the security cost of hosting refugees and defeating terrorism. In pursuit of these common interests, Pakistan can play a vital role. In return, Pakistan would expect, at minimum, an end to the eight years of hostility under President Obama.  

Trump is being ostracized for his “America First” policy. His method is analogous to the procedure in an aircraft during low cabin pressure — an individual should don his or her own oxygen mask before assisting others.

Notwithstanding his xenophobia and singular focus on so-called ‘Islamic terrorism’, Trump should be lauded for standing up for common Americans who were previously neglected. 

The U.S. and Pakistan can apply some minor course-settings to better fight terrorism. Islamabad has signaled that it is amenable to readjustments. House-arresting Hafiz Saeed, the alleged mastermind behind the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, seemed to be the first step.

Washington, D.C. could reciprocate by nuancing its policy and eschewing the word ‘Islamic’. Islam is an anathema to terrorism and it is a religion of peace. As one of the most populous Islamic states, Pakistan wants to defeat terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.

Stabilizing Afghanistan is a key common interest between the U.S. and Pakistan. A peaceful Afghanistan would allow the Trump administration to focus on defeating militant organizations elsewhere.

Of late, Pakistan has demonstrated dramatic improvement in reducing terrorist activity within its borders.

According to the Institute for Economics and Peace’s 2016 Global Terrorism Index, Pakistan has seen a 30 percent drop in terror-related fatalities from 2014 to 2016 “due to infighting within the largest active group, the Tehrik I Taliban Pakistan (TTP), as well as to the operations of the Pakistan Army in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.”

Trump’s intent to play a role in the resolution of Kashmir would not only stabilize the Pakistan-India subcontinent but also the larger South Asian region overall. There are signs that America may reach a détente with Russia and China under Trump.

Trump has walked back past threats and has agreed to honor the “One China” policy. It seems to be a fantastic idea. A U.S.-China-Russia détente would reduce global security overloads, particularly those in South Asia.

Being a successful entrepreneur and pragmatic businessman, Trump has taken an unprecedented approach in stabilizing the global order that came under considerable strain in the last decade. Even before entering the Oval Office, he took charge of policy toward China.

The Trump administration stepped out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership that sought to contain China economically. If the U.S. and China can reach an agreement over trade and currency valuation issues, the “Pivot to Asia” policy of the erstwhile Obama administration would scale down.

Stability in Sino-U.S. relations and their economic rebalance would help improve the American economy. The U.S. could then participate in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the flagship project of China’s “One Belt, One Road” policy for Asia, Europe and Africa.

If the desired rapprochement eludes the Sino-U.S. relations, Trump’s America First strategy would be the initial casualty. The economies of the two countries are intrinsically linked to each other and military competition does not suit America’s long-term interests. 

A reset in Pakistan’s relations with the U.S. would depend on the initial steps that the Trump administration takes in its policy toward the region. Reinforcing the poor choices of the past would only exacerbate instability, complicate the goal of eliminating terrorism and fail to reduce external stresses on the ailing American economy. No time should be lost in taking a fresh start and setting mutually agreed rules of engagement between both countries. 

No American administration can afford to adopt a collision course method with its domestic and international players. Such an approach can quickly isolate the nation and the Trump administration is mindful of this pitfall.

American power structure has a system of checks and balances in which every ambition is made to counteract with another ambition. Trump is aware that he cannot afford to be a self-determining architect of the country’s strategic roadmap.

His hedging approach is exceptional and that has unsettled those who are used to the status quo. A fresh approach in Pakistan-U.S. relations would be key to a positive Trumpian legacy. 

Atia Ali Kazmi is a senior research & policy analyst at NUST Global Think Tank Network, an international public policy research, analysis and advocacy initiative that seeks to bring together Pakistan’s thought leadership.

The views of contributors are their own and not the views of The Hill.