Harassment allegations roil 2018 House field

Both Democrats and Republicans are bracing for a wave of sexual misconduct allegations that could roil key races and inject further uncertainty into the battle for the House in 2018.

Allegations leveled against incumbent lawmakers and challengers have already upended several must-win races for Democrats.

Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D-Nev.) highlighted that uncertainty when he announced on Saturday that he wouldn’t seek reelection amid sexual harassment charges, opening up a swing seat in a district that Hillary Clinton won by 5 points in 2016.

{mosads}Sexual misconduct allegations have also shaken up Democratic primaries in competitive GOP-held seats. Businesswoman Andrea Ramsey, who was considered a top recruit, dropped out of the race against Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.). And state Sen. Daylin Leach said he’s “taking a step back” from his campaign to unseat Rep. Patrick Meehan (R-Pa.).

Both parties expect that future allegations that could upend other critical House and Senate races next year.

“I think the surprise factor is something that is very difficult for them to plan for,” said Doug Heye, a former Republican National Committee spokesman.

While the allegations against Democrats in Nevada, Kansas and Pennsylvania currently give Republicans a boost in several targeted House races, Heye warned that more claims could hit either party at any time.

“The problem is everyone has to operate under the assumption that any shoe can drop, in either party, at any moment, anywhere throughout the country,” he said.

It’s unclear how many open-seat races will be part of the 2018 map, and the possibility that future sexual misconduct allegations could open new seats includes both the House and the Senate.

Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) resigned after a series of allegations and his departure means Democrats will need to defend both of Minnesota’s Senate seats in 2018. Lt. Gov. Tina Smith (D) was appointed to fill his seat, and plans to run in next year’s special election. The unexpected vacancy has also drawn some high-profile Republicans to consider the race.

So far, though, sexual misconduct allegations have had the biggest impact on the fight for the House majority.

Democrats need to flip 24 seats to take back control. That path requires holding onto Kihuen’s seat, as well as picking up GOP-leaning suburban districts where Clinton won last year.

In Kihuen’s Nevada district, Democrats will need to kick their candidate recruitment efforts into overdrive. While the primary isn’t until June, the party only has three months to find a competitive challenger before the mid-March filing deadline.

Facing an ethics probe into the allegations against him, Kihuen announced he wouldn’t run for reelection. He had originally faced pressure from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and top Democrats to resign immediately.

Kihuen’s decision to serve out the rest of his term will avert a special election, meaning that Democrats and Republicans will be able to hold primaries where voters select their respective nominees.

Potential Democratic candidates in the Las Vegas-area district include former Rep. Steven Horsford (D), who represented the seat from 2013 to 2015, state Sen. Yvanna Cancela and Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani. Candidate Amy Vilela, who is backed by a progressive group, was running prior to the Kihuen allegations.

Las Vegas City Councilman Stavros Anthony, a top GOP recruit, is the only Republican currently in the race. But former Rep. Cresent Hardy, who lost to Kihuen in 2016, could also mount a comeback bid.

Democrats already have a number of credible candidates in Kansas and Pennsylvania who can replace the candidates facing sexual harassment allegations.

In Kansas, Ramsey dropped out amid a report about a 2005 lawsuit against her former company in which a male subordinate alleged he was fired after rejecting her sexual advances.

While the DCCC didn’t endorse in the primary, the former business executive tore into the committee as she left the race over the allegations, which she has denied. The DCCC has called on candidates to end campaigns in light of sexual harassment claims.

Before leaving the race, Ramsey led her primary rivals in fundraising, pulling in $443,000 from April to September. But two other Democrats running in the August primary, teacher Tom Niermann and labor attorney and former Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) campaign staffer Brent Welder, also raised six figures.

Defeating Yoder, who has represented his Kansas City-area district since 2011, will still be an uphill climb for Democrats. He has $1.4 million cash on hand and won reelection by more than 10 points, while Clinton carried the district by just 1 point.

In Pennsylvania, it’s unclear if Leach is ending his congressional campaign, but his lawyer told The Philadelphia Inquirer that “it doesn’t mean he’s quitting the race.” Leach’s statement comes after a report that he allegedly made sexual jokes and inappropriately touched female campaign staffers. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf (D) has called on the state senator to resign.

Leach, who has been running from the left in the Philadelphia suburban district, has also led his crowded primary in fundraising, bringing in about $400,000 from June to September.

But Dan Muroff, a Democratic ward leader in Philadelphia, has also been a strong fundraiser and raised about $300,000 over five months. Muroff was endorsed by former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell. Molly Sheehan, a biomedical engineer, has also raised six figures.

Meehan has been a top target for Democrats. He won reelection by 19 points and has nearly $2.5 million cash on hand, but Clinton carried his district. While Meehan voted against the ObamaCare repeals — a vote that’s likely to be held against other GOP lawmakers in November 2018 — Meehan did vote for the Republican tax bill.

Despite a string of sexual harassment allegations against some Democratic candidates, the party is still feeling optimistic that their midterm candidates will win big with women voters.

“Any short-term damage that may be done to Democrats by losing good candidates may very well be compensated by the mobilization of women voters in those districts,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon.

Still, strategists worry that damage from future high-profile allegations could drag down other candidates in 2018.

“This is something that cannot just derail a campaign, but as we’ve seen … can also impact other candidates running for other offices, and that’s something that they’re mindful of as well,” Heye said.