Ryan, Vance locked in dead heat in Ohio Senate race: poll

Ohio Senate candidates Tim Ryan (D) and J.D. Vance (R) are locked in a dead heat less than a month out from Election Day, according to a new survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill. 

The poll found 46 percent of voters said they planned to back Vance, while 45 percent said the same about Ryan, falling well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Another 9 percent said they were undecided. 

The poll showed increases in support for both candidates. Vance’s support went up by 2 points since last month, while Ryan has seen his support grow by 5 points. 

The findings appear to match up with other recent polling out of the race, which has grown tighter over the past month. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Vance leading Ryan by just 1.4 percentage points.

While the race is considered red-leaning, Ryan has run a strong fundraising and ground operation in the state, which former President Trump won by 8 points in 2016 and 2020. 

The two candidates faced off in a debate hosted by The Hill’s parent company, Nexstar, on Monday, which saw Ryan and Vance clash over economic issues and their ties to their respective party’s establishment. The survey was taken in the days before the debate.

Ryan, who represents Ohio’s 13th Congressional District, reiterated his view that he did not believe President Biden should run for reelection in 2024 and called for generational change. According to the survey from Emerson College and The Hill, Biden holds a 57 percent disapproval rating in Ohio. Only 37 percent of voters said they approved of him. 

Unlike the Senate race, the polling out of the governor race shows a wide gap between incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) and his Democratic opponent, Nan Whaley. According to the Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey, DeWine leads Whaley 50 percent to 36 percent. 

The Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey was conducted Oct. 6-7 among 1,000 very likely general election voters.