NotedDC — White House is Biden’s to lose in 2024, analyst says

The dust isn’t anywhere near settled for this year’s midterms, but already eyes are looking ahead to the next White House race, with major implications for both parties.

While Democrats are bracing for a potential drubbing in next week’s midterms, one prominent political scientist says at this point the next election is President Biden‘s to lose.

“If the Democrats have any hope of winning in 2024, they have to nominate Joe Biden,” American University professor Allan Lichtman told NotedDC.

Lichtman, who has accurately predicted every presidential election dating back to 1984 (with the exception of the controversial 2000 election), said that two years out from the White House battle, the usual figures remain the parties’ best chances.

“On the Republican side there are only two candidates — [Florida Gov. Ron] DeSantis and [former President] Trump. I don’t see anyone else who has any chance whatsoever,” he said. 

The White House and the president have maintained he plans to seek reelection in 2024, but Biden — who turns 80 later this month — is already the oldest president in history and it remains to be seen how the midterms might impact Democrats’ views.

Trump has teased announcing another White House run soon after the midterms, and he’s hit the campaign trail hard in recent weeks stumping for Republican candidates he sees as potential allies.

DeSantis is currently locked in a bid for reelection that will be decided next week, but when asked during a recent debate whether he would commit to a full four-year term, the potential contender for the GOP nomination in 2024 wouldn’t say.

He’s steadily grown his national profile and become a darling of the conservative media. Still, Lichtman says the Florida governor “will not find it easy to consolidate the Trump wing of the Republican Party,” adding, “He just isn’t Trump.”

Lichtman’s model doesn’t rely on polls or issues but instead factors the circumstances around a candidate and which of 13 identified “keys” work to their advantage or disadvantage — from incumbency to social unrest.

Biden’s holding the most “keys” at this point, the professor says.

“He’s got a lot going for him already,” Lichtman said. “I have no prediction yet, but it’s going to be tough for [Biden] to lose six other keys, particularly if the economy is not in recession in the election year.”

Conventional wisdom is that politicians try to let the current elections pass, see what happens and then plot out their futures, but election timelines are increasingly shrinking.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who has stoked speculation that he could jump into the 2024 race if Biden decides not to run, drew attention this week when he took aim at his own party’s messaging.

“We’re getting crushed on narrative. We’re going to have to do better in terms of getting on the offense and stop being on the damn defense,” Newsom told CBS News’s Major Garrett in an interview that aired Wednesday.

Other names floating around on the Republican side: Former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and term-limited Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, among others.

Some, like Pence, could struggle appealing to both moderate Republicans and the Trump wing of the party. “He lacks a natural constituency,” Lichtman said.

On the Democratic side: Vice President Harris and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg generally top lists if Biden forgoes another run.

“There’s no heir apparent,” Lichtman noted. “Presidential elections have zero to do with issues — a lot of candidates who are ahead on the issues get trounced.” 

This is NotedDC, looking at the politics, policy and people behind the stories in Washington. We’re The Hill’s Liz Crisp and Amée LaTour. 

📨 Have a tip or some feedback you want to send us? Email us at ecrisp@digital-staging.thehill.com and alatour@digital-staging.thehill.com.

🤝 Cross-party endorsements lay bare party fissures

Recent cross-party endorsements by high-profile political figures have thrown into stark relief the tensions building between different factions of the major parties.

Outgoing Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii), who ran in the Democratic presidential primary in 2019, are among the latest to make headlines for crossing party lines. 

Cheney made her first Democratic endorsement last week, backing Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) for Michigan’s 7th District. Cheney, who lost her primary to Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman earlier this year, also recently said that if she were an Ohio voter, she’d vote for Senate candidate Tim Ryan (D) over J.D. Vance (R), the latter of whom has Trump’s endorsement.   

Slotkin’s GOP challenger, state Sen. Thomas Barrett, has expressed doubt about the fairness of the 2020 election.  

Cheney serves as vice chair the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol and has been one of Trump’s most vocal critics from within the GOP. Cheney said at a campaign event with Slotkin on Tuesday, “If we want to ensure the survival of our republic, we have to walk away from politics as usual. … If the people in our party are not doing the job they need to do, then we’re going to vote for the people in the other party.”  

Governing Magazine’s Alan Greenblatt said there’s “a mini trend this year of Republicans endorsing Democratic candidates,” citing outgoing Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s (R-Ill.) endorsement of several Democrats, as well as a number of Republicans backing Arizona gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly.  

Kinzinger, one of 10 GOP representatives who voted to impeach Trump last year, decried partisan extremism when announcing he wouldn’t run for reelection.  

Greenblatt quoted vice president of political studies at the Niskanen Center Geoffrey Kabaservice: “I do think there’s a real fault line running through the Republican Party right now. … It comes down not to moderates vs. conservatives. This is really traditional Reaganite conservatives against Trumpian populists.”

In Virginia’s 7th District, former 5th District GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman starred in an ad supporting Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), touting her bipartisan credentials. Riggleman lost the 2020 GOP convention to Bob Good not long after Riggleman officiated a same-sex wedding. 

A cross-party endorsement in Virginia might not be so surprising. Stephen Farnsworth, political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, said, “If you look back to the days when Senator John Warner was active in Virginia politics, for example, you really did see a real concern about conservative Republicans undermining the state of the party as well as not being the best choice for the country.” Warner, a senator from 1979 to 2009, endorsed several Democrats, including Hillary Clinton in 2016, WVTF reported.  

Yesli Vega (R) is challenging Spanberger and got Trump’s endorsement last week. Vega downplayed it, saying, “I’ve gotten a lot of endorsements. I’ve gotten the most important endorsements for me, which is the voters of the 7th District.”   

Not all party-crossing endorsements have gone right-to-left.

Also active in Michigan’s 7th, Virginia’s 7th and Ohio’s Senate race — and a host of others — is Tulsi Gabbard, who’s gone on a GOP endorsement spree after announcing her exit from the Democratic Party to become an independent last month. She said the Democratic Party is controlled by “an elitist cabal of warmongers who are driven by cowardly wokeness.”   

Along with Barrett, Vega and Vance, Gabbard’s list of endorsees includes Senate candidates Don Bolduc in New Hampshire and Adam Laxalt in Nevada as well as gubernatorial candidates in Arizona, Illinois and Michigan.    

A few other notables: 

• Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) recently said she’d rank Alaska’s sole U.S. representative, Mary Peltola (D), first on her ranked-choice ballot, referring to a longstanding friendship between the two. Murkowski said she doesn’t “toe the party line just because party leaders have asked or because it may be expected.”
  
• Peltola likewise backed Murkowski. So did Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) earlier this year.  
  
• Former Rep. J.C. Watts (R), who served in the House from 1995 to 2003,  endorsed Joy Hofmeister (D) in Oklahoma’s gubernatorial race, saying in an ad, “All this scandal and corruption is just too much.” Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is seeking re-election. Our colleague Jared Gans has more on the race, and allegations of corruption, here.   
  
  

📺 The late must-see ads of 2022

The 2022 elections have brought out tension, hurt feelings and more, with candidates going up on the air with millions of dollars in ads in the closing weeks of the midterms to make their final pitch to voters.

Here are some of the ads we’ve seen late in the cycle that stand out:

1. ‘I’m not your candidate’

“Politics used to be about serving…” Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) leads into her ad that features raw footage from the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. “Today, it’s about winning, at all costs.” She then ticks through a list of positions, telling viewers if they want a candidate who supports those things they should not vote for her.

2. ‘Not sexy’

The Senate Leadership Fund, the leading super PAC for Senate Republicans, went after Wisconsin Democratic Senate candidate Mandela Barnes in a dramatic ad that paints him as soft on crime. After playing an edited clip of Barnes stating “reducing prison populations is now sexy,” a narrator retorts, “Actually, releasing criminals isn’t sexy — it’s dangerous.”

3. Walker cites mental health battle

Republican Herschel Walker, the former football star from Georgia, has had a rough path trying to find the political end zone. Allegations of abortion, abuse and neglect have plagued his campaign. In an ad last month, Walker accused Democratic rival Sen. Raphael Warnock of “nasty” campaigning against him. “As everyone knows, I had a real battle with mental health, even wrote a book about it, and by the grace of God, I’ve overcome it,” Walker said.

Want more? Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics last month reviewed tons of campaign ads to distill the information. A few takeaways from their reviews of more than 300 ads:

• Abortion has dominated messaging for Democrats, while Republicans have mostly shied away from the topic.
  
• Crime is big for Republicans, and Democrats have increasingly been featuring law enforcement officers in their ads.
  
• President Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) remain the boogeymen for Republicans in their ads. 
  
  

🚓 Lofgren seeks answers on Pelosi attack response

House Administration Committee chairwoman Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) wrote a letter Tuesday pressing U.S. Capitol Police chief Thomas Manger on security measures for members of Congress and the response to the attack of Paul Pelosi last week.

Lofgren wrote, “The incident and related circumstances, including the manner in which the Speaker and her family were targeted, raise significant questions about security protections for Members of Congress, particularly those in the presidential line of succession.” 

The suspect, David DePape, was reportedly looking for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who is second in the line of succession.  

The committee, which includes six Democrats and three Republicans, oversees the Capitol Police. Lofgren was the letter’s sole signatory.  

We wondered: Will pursuing these questions be a priority for the committee? Are Republican members on board? NotedDC contacted the office of Rep. Rodney Davis (IIl.), the committee’s ranking Republican member, to ask about the level of interest among Republican committee members and hasn’t heard back yet. 

Some questions Lofgren’s letter posed: 

• “Under either any current or prior [Memorandum of Understanding] and/or [Mutual Aid Agreement] between [U.S. Capitol Police (USCP)] and [San Francisco Police Department (SFPD)], was a SFPD police vehicle to be stationed outside of the Speaker’s residence? Was a SFPD vehicle positioned outside of the Speaker’s residence on October 28? If not, why not?”
  
• “Prior to the October 28 attack, did the USCP receive input and/or collaborate with the United States Secret Service (USSS) regarding appropriate physical security requirements to protect these officials?”
  
• “Has the USCP previously put forward a plan of action or request to the [sergeant-at-arms] and/or Capitol Police Board to extend coverage to the spouses and/or other family members of the congressional leaders in the presidential line of succession? If not, why not?” 

Our colleague Mychael Schnell has more on the letter here. 

– – — BRIEFLY  💰  🔵  🏥  🛍  — – –

Former President Trump (R) said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) should be impeached if he backs an effort, supported by at least 31 House Democrats, to eliminate the debt ceiling.  

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) told The Associated Press he thinks Democrats “will hold the Senate and maybe even pick up seats,” while FiveThirtyEight shifted its forecast slightly in Republicans’ favor two days before.

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.) released a report calling the health care sector “uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks” and recommending ways the government can make the sector more secure.

The National Retail Federation estimates holiday retail sales will grow 6-8 percent this year. The predicted growth would be less than in 2021, when holiday sales rose 13.5 percent over 2020’s. 

WHAT WE’RE READING

• ‘Chaos and Confusion’: The Campaign to Stamp Out Ballot Drop Boxes via Stateline and the Center for Public Integrity.
  
• 5 key takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes via The Hill
  
• Republicans dial down rhetoric in closing messages as Democrats attack in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania via CNN
  
• If You’re Playing the Powerball Lottery, Here’s How to Improve Your (Infinitesimal) Chances of Winning via Gizmodo

What are you reading or what’s something others aren’t talking about? Email us here.

NUMBER TO KNOW

6,278 

Number of state legislative seats on the ballot next week — 85 percent of total seats.

⏰ That time again

We are falling back this weekend. Be sure to set your clocks.  

Daylight saving no more? A push in Congress to make daylight saving time permanent unanimously passed the Senate earlier this year but ultimately failed to generate traction in the House. 

• Dubbed the “Sunshine Protection Act,” it would have ended the biannual tradition next year in the name of brighter afternoons and potential economic activity.
  
• It has bipartisan support so could become one of the most impactful changes if lawmakers opt to take it up in the lame-duck session after next week’s elections.
  
  

Stay with TheHill.com for the latest and recommend NotedDC to others: digital-staging.thehill.com/noted. See you next week!