What Lula’s victory in Brazil means for Latin America

While the smoke of protests continues in some parts of the country, there is no doubt, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — often referred to as just Lula — won the Brazilian presidency for a third time with 50.9 percent of the vote, narrowly beating the far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro, who obtained 49.1 percent of the votes.

Lula’s victory in Brazil could mean many things: A mockery of justice, a story of redemption, hope for the people, a democratic setback, an opportunity for unity, or further division and class hatred. Any of the above may be possible. Despite this, I would like to focus on what the presidential change in Brazil means for Latin America.

A red momentum in the region

The leader of the Labor Party (PT) is closing the cycle of the left, becoming the missing piece in the geopolitical puzzle of Latin America and the Caribbean. For the first time in history, the left controls more than 85 percent of the governments of the hemisphere and holds five of the main economies of Latin America (Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia).

Lula the father of the Sao Paulo Forum

Lula, 77, is part of the old leftist school who grew up reading Eduardo Galeano andidealizing Fidel Castro’s Cuba. In 1990, Fidel convinced Lula to create the Sao Paulo Forum, a political and ideological tool with a wide presence throughout the Americas, including the United States. One of the premises established by the forum is, “To move forward with proposals for unity of action agreed upon primarily in the anti-imperialist and the struggle of the people.” That is why, although Lula came to power democratically, his loyalties and principles appear rooted in the Cuban dictatorship.

The arrival of a red tide throughout the Americas will also affect the election of the new president of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the almost imminent changes in the secretary general of the Organization of American States (OAS), which for years has been a target of Mexico and Argentina ideological agenda, but now they finally have the political steamroller to crystallize their darkest ambitions.

The reconfiguration of the political map of the left will impact macroeconomic issues, the fight against poverty, politics, democracy and human rights. All these sectors and perhaps others will be under the selective gaze of a left that favors and defends the dictatorships of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.

Brazil is a key player in the economy and beyond

Although it is true that Mexico and Argentina are large countries with a high political and economic weight, Brazil continues to be the Latin American giant. The country of 215 million people is one of the world’s top 10 oil and gas producers and remains the third largest food producerglobally. Brazil’s exports and investments have significant weight in America and its alignment with other leftist countries could mark a change of direction in hemispheric priorities.

Dangerous liaisons

Latin America and the Caribbean are entering a stage in which the new leaders lack good political credentials and have an erratic record on macroeconomic issues. The new roster of heads of state of the Americas includes former guerrillas, ex-convicts and consummate dictators. With its differences and nuances, there is a clear strategy to strengthen integration regardless of integrity, particularly when it comes to the dictatorships of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.

In November 2021, Lula said, “Why can Angela Merkel be in power for 16 years and Ortega not?”

In August of this year, Lula referred to the Venezuelan opposition and Juan Guaidó saying, “Europe and the United States should not have recognized an impostor who proclaimed himself president… he should be in jail.”

In July 2021, Lula praised the Cuban dictatorship and assured that “If Cuba would not have an embargo it would be like the Netherlands.” 

And in May 2022, Lula said, “This guy (Zelensky) is as responsible as Putin,” referring to Russia invasion of Ukraine. This is optic of Lula when it comes to foreign policy.

Regardless of these sad and polemic statements, I want to believe that Lula has seen what a lack of democracy can cause in Latin America, especially in countries like Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. I hope that at the end of this trilogy of mandates, Brazil and Latin America achieve more democracy, security, prosperity and unrestricted respect for human rights. Boa sorte, President Lula.

Arturo McFields Yescas was a member of the Peace Corps of Norway (FK) and former ambassador of Nicaragua to the Organization of American States. Follow him on Twitter: @ArturoMcfields