The GOP may have reached the political limit of abortion extremism

Buoyed by high inflation and a Democratic president whose popularity is hovering around 40 percent, Republicans hyped a red wave that would lead to huge gains in both Houses of Congress and in statewide races nationally. Yet, this red wave amounted to more of a trickle, in no small part because of the new abortion landscape that has emerged in wake of the Dobbs decision.

The overturning of Roe was broadly unpopular — my organization, Public Religion Research Institute, found last month in our 2022 AVS Survey that just 35 percent of Americans favored this decision. More importantly, Democrats are now more likely than Republicans to say they would only vote for candidates who shared their position on abortion, 35 percent to 21 percent, respectively. This finding is a striking reversal from 2020 when Republicans (32 percent) were more likely than Democrats (17 percent) to say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion.

The survey was conducted in September among a representative sample of 2,523 adults (age 18 and up) living in all 50 states who are part of Ipsos’s Knowledge Panel. 

Making abortion illegal in all cases is an extreme position that finds virtually no support nationally — just 8 percent of Americans agree with this position according to the 2022 AVS Survey. Yet, the nomination of many Republican candidates who supported outright bans on the procedure hurt GOP chances more broadly — and was also likely unpopular among many Republican voters, too. While most Republicans have historically opposed widespread access to abortion, support for complete abortion bans has recently decreased among Republicans. In just two years, the percentage of Republicans nationally that favored making abortion illegal in all cases fell from 23 percent to just 11 percent — a dramatic decline.

The specter of abortion bans loomed particularly large in battleground states where Republican candidates should have been more competitive, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, where GOP primary voters nominated candidates with extreme abortion positions.  

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer leaned heavily into her support for abortion rights as she faced off against Tudor Dixon, a staunch abortion opponent, and was rewarded with not only a second term but with the first Democratic legislative majority in her state in decades. 

In Pennsylvania, exit polls suggest that abortion ranked as voters’ top concern, edging out inflation, which no doubt helped John Fetterman withstand a close challenge from Dr. Mehmet Oz in the Senate contest.

Moreover, in states where abortion policy itself appeared on the ballot, voters chose to solidify abortion rights, even in ruby-red states such as Kentucky. As we saw in Kansas last summer, Kentucky voters rejected a state constitutional measure that would have declared no right to abortion. Unlike in Michigan or Pennsylvania, where PRRI finds majorities believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases (64 percent and 59 percent, respectively), fewer than half (48 percent) of Kentuckians support abortion rights broadly. Yet, when faced with a possible abortion ban, voters in this state also chose to reject that path, likely because PRRI finds that just 15 percent of Kentuckians believe abortion should be illegal in all cases.

These results should give pause to Republicans in Congress, who are likely to hold a slim majority in the House once the final votes are tallied. A majority of current House Republicans have backed legislation that defines fetal life at conception — a bill that experts believe would result in a national ban on abortion. While the chances of such legislation passing the Senate or surviving what is certainly a presidential veto by Joe Biden are slim to none, if House Republicans choose to introduce such a measure again in the next session of Congress, it sends a message to voters in 2024 that making abortion completely illegal remains a GOP priority.

Such a move would certainly spell more political liability for the GOP in the years ahead. We find at PRRI that Americans are becoming more supportive — not less — of abortion rights over time, especially younger voters. Gen Z women, in particular, are trending far more pro-choice, and show up to vote at higher rates than their male counterparts. Many analysts credit strong midterm election turnout among Gen Z — who voted overwhelmingly in favor of Democrats — as helping to stave off big Republican gains. It is important to remember as well that Generation Z will become nearly 30 percent of the electorate by 2032.

Simply put, as Americans confront the policy reality that abortion is no longer a national constitutional right, as opposed to a theoretical possibility strongly sought by abortion opponents within the Republican Party, its salience as a political issue is clearly shaping the voices of many voters today in a direction that some GOP leaders may not have anticipated.

Melissa Deckman, Ph.D. is CEO of PRRI (Public Religion Research Institute), a non-profit, non-partisan research organization dedicated to conducting independent research at the intersection of religion, culture and public policy.