How Biden and Xi can save the climate

The most eye-catching outcome of President Biden’s long-awaited meeting with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, was the resumption of U.S.-China cooperation on climate change. Although the two countries maintained informal contact during the ongoing UN international climate summit COP27 that just concluded in Egypt, no formal talks have taken place since Beijing suspended them in response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) visit to Taiwan in August. The resumption of formal climate cooperation is a chance for both sides to reset the critical relationship between the world’s two largest emitters. But unlike in the past, when they focused primarily on cutting emissions, the U.S. and China should now focus on adaptation — equipping the world to respond to climate impacts already taking place.

In contrast to mitigation, which centers on cutting emissions, adaptation focuses on helping countries and communities deal with the reality of more frequent and severe floods, droughts and heatwaves. There are three big reasons that adaptation should take precedence over mitigation in U.S.-China climate cooperation. First, cooperation between the two countries on reducing emissions has already achieved many of its goals. With Beijing committed to reducing China’s emissions to net zero by 2060, and Washington on track to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050 thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, both countries have ambitious plans in place to cut emissions. The job now is to make sure these plans stay on track — a task for domestic policy rather than diplomacy.

Second, adaptation is increasingly becoming the focus of international climate action. So far, 2022 has been a year of climate-linked disasters around the globe, from the United States and China to Britain and Pakistan. The sheer scope of these disasters underscores that the world is nearly out of time to avert catastrophic climate change. Given these clear signs of accelerating climate change, the COP27 talks have put adaptation front and center. The U.S. and China, as the world’s two largest emitters, have been roundly criticized for not contributing enough to adaptation efforts. This criticism has already prompted both countries to pledge more resources for adaptation, although in China’s case not in the form of hard cash.  

Third, the U.S. and China themselves are facing increased adaptation pressures in response to climate change. This past summer, China suffered through what was, by most measures, the most intense heatwave on record anywhere in the world, slashing growth forecasts and straining China’s power grid to the breaking point. In the United States, a record-shattering drought in the U.S. Southwest signaled that water scarcity may permanently curb growth in one of the country’s fastest-growing regions. Even more recently, Hurricane Ian has proven to be the one of the most deadly and costly in U.S. history. These recent calamities give Biden and Xi good reason to shift their immediate focus to how both countries respond to climate risks.

A focus on adaptation instead of mitigation in U.S.-China cooperation would require both countries to reset their climate ties. First, it would mean pivoting away from Washington’s approach to COP27, which involved publicly pressuring China to commit funds for adaptation and compensation to countries severely affected by climate change. Second, it would mean working more closely with other countries. In the past, U.S.-China climate diplomacy was widely credited with motivating global climate action, including helping save last year’s COP26 climate talks in Glasgow from stalemate. Because they account for such a large share of total global emissions, joint U.S.-China mitigation initiatives were a powerful catalyst for pledges by other countries. But because so many parts of the world are subject to growing climate risk, driving action on adaptation will require working with a much broader range of countries. 

Even so, U.S.-China cooperation can do two big things to help the world adapt to a new normal of drought, deluge, and extreme heat. The first involves finding ways to prevent major disruption to the world’s water supplies. Here the United States and other countries could benefit from China’s experience. Beijing has adopted some of the world’s most ambitious policies to counter drought and water scarcity, including a cap-and-trade system for water as well as carbon. Chinese scientists are also in the forefront of research in areas like artificial precipitation that can help boost water availability in water-starved regions. These solutions could play an important role in protecting ecosystems and agricultural livelihoods throughout the American West, too.

The second contribution U.S.-China cooperation on adaptation can make is building capacity to climate-related extreme weather events. China, for its part, needs know-how from the U.S. and others on how best to implement important adaptation solutions like flood insurance and disaster risk management. The latter is especially important, because it aims to orient disaster aid and assistance toward helping farmers switch to drought-resistant crops, for example — rather than simply cutting checks when disaster strikes. And across the globe, new and more sophisticated financing mechanisms are needed to harden power grids, water supply networks and other infrastructure against climate change shocks.   

To be sure, political realities could limit U.S.-China cooperation in climate adaptation.

When Republicans regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in January, they are unlikely to support any additional climate cooperation with Beijing. It is also unclear whether Chinese leaders have much appetite to launch ambitious new initiatives with their American counterparts. With these realities in mind, U.S.-China dialogue on adaptation should start small and include other major emitters like the European Union and India. And it should focus on sharing know-how, not technology, as well as emphasize protecting people and livelihoods from flooding, drought and extreme heat.

Biden’s sit-down with Xi is a start toward resetting the relationship between the world’s two most powerful countries, including on climate change. And while Biden and Xi walked away with plenty of differences, they can find common ground in helping the world adapt to the growing risk of climate disasters.

Scott Moore is director of China Programs and lecturer at the University of Pennsylvania and previously served at the U.S. Department of State, where he was a U.S. delegate to the Paris Agreement climate talks. His latest book is “China’s Next Act: How Sustainability and Technology are Reshaping China’s Rise and the World’s Future” (Oxford University Press, 2022).