How US Patriot missile systems could impact the Russia-Ukraine war

The United States announced Wednesday it will send a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine, in a move that experts say will immediately bolster the country’s defense capabilities and dull the threat of Russia’s relentless aerial attacks. 

The announcement ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington marks a significant increase in U.S. military support almost 10 months into the war, and news of the transfer ahead of the announcement quickly spurred warnings from Moscow that it would target the weapons in Ukraine. 

The Russian Embassy in Washington called the move a “provocative step” that “can lead to unpredictable consequences.”

However, the vehicle-mounted Patriot missile systems are largely used defensively, to protect military and civilian targets. The missiles are designed to hit mid- and high-altitude targets such as missiles, fighter jets, bombers and drones. 

“This will overnight protect key places like Kyiv, unlike they’ve ever been able to protect before from anything that Russia has,” John Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies at the Madison Policy Forum, said of the Patriot systems. 

“So it really is a trump card to bombing of Ukrainian civilian positions and infrastructure and key locations,” he added. 

The Pentagon said Wednesday the Patriot will “add to a layered defense to counter the full range of threats currently menacing Ukraine’s cities and civilians” and bolster previous air defense capabilities the United States has given to the embattled country.   

The Patriot batteries also have advanced radar systems that will enhance Ukraine’s ability to locate and target threats at higher altitudes. The cost of the full Patriot battery is estimated at about $1 billion, while each missile costs some $3 million to $4 million.

The systems require significant training to operate; however, Spencer said he was confident solutions to that challenge were part of the Pentagon’s planning. U.S. troops have been training Ukrainians counterparts in Poland throughout the war, and the Pentagon said Ukrainian military members would be trained on the Patriot in a third country.

Piotr Żochowski, a senior fellow at the Warsaw-based OSW Centre for Eastern Studies, said the weapons could be crucial in stemming the damage from Russia’s aerial bombardment of energy infrastructure in what has been called an effort to “weaponize” Ukraine’s harsh winter. 

“Ukraine facing the threat of a blackout must focus on ensuring the safety of power plants,” he said, noting the number of systems and training would be key factors in success. “If this happens relatively quickly, it will help Ukrainian forces significantly reduce the effectiveness of Russian attacks.”

Żochowski called the Kremlin’s response to reporting of the weapons shipments “standard.”

“In my opinion, Russian threats are part of the information war. Each strengthening of Ukraine’s defense potential causes problems for the Russians and makes it difficult to escalate air attacks,” he said. 

The Biden administration had reportedly been mulling sending Patriot batteries to Ukraine, but as recently as two weeks ago, the Pentagon was still saying it had “no plans” to ship the systems. 

Since the start of Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February, Kyiv has repeatedly called for more Western air defense systems.

Those calls have gained traction amid an aerial onslaught from Russia in recent weeks, using missiles and Iranian-made drones to pound power stations and other military and civilian targets across the country. 

John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine now with the Atlantic Council, said the Biden administration was apparently responding to pressure from Congress and public criticism but that Moscow’s own actions were likely the deciding factor. 

“Patriots are coming out because of this absolutely atrocious, large-scale Russian bombing of infrastructure in Ukraine,” he said. 

Specifics of the U.S. plans remain unclear, such as which version of the Patriot battery is being provided, where it is coming from, how long it will take to reach Ukraine or whether additional batteries might follow. 

Herbst predicted the first battery would be deployed in Kyiv, where it would help protect key government and military targets and defend the most populous city from blackouts. 

The former ambassador, who served in Ukraine under former President Bush from 2003 to 2006, said the Biden administration has always been “timid” and “a day late and a dollar short” in responding to Ukraine’s needs. 

However, he noted that fears of Russian retaliation for perceived “escalation” by the U.S. were subsiding after repeated warnings from Moscow have not resulted in follow-up actions. 

Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder last week said the U.S. would not be deterred by Russia’s warnings, noting it was “ironic” that the country waging a brutal war would call the deployment of defensive systems a provocation. 

“So despite Russia’s propaganda to portray themselves as victims, it’s important to remember that Russia is the aggressor here,” he told a press briefing. 

“And when it comes to escalation, they could de-escalate this situation today by withdrawing their forces and saving countless innocent lives, but clearly they’ve chosen to double down,” he said.