Republicans to watch amid the House Speaker election

As the House convenes Tuesday to elect a new Speaker, Kevin McCarthy’s path to leadership could be blocked by a number of his fellow Republicans.

A range of GOP stakeholders inside and outside the chamber could play key roles in the lead-up to and during the vote and its aftermath.

If McCarthy cannot secure the support of a majority of those voting on Tuesday, the Speakership election will go to a second ballot. That has not happened in a century. With Republicans holding only 222 seats in the House, McCarthy could only afford to lose four votes and still win the speaker’s gavel if every House member votes.

Here are the Republicans to watch Tuesday as the House chooses its next speaker:

Kevin McCarthy

McCarthy addresses reporters during a press conference on Wednesday, December 14, 2022 to discuss the on-going budget negotiations. (Greg Nash)

McCarthy engaged in recent days with members of the Republican caucus to try to gather enough support to become Speaker, but he has not locked that up yet.

He has been trying to work with a group of five members who have directly said or strongly indicated they will not vote for him on Tuesday, along with Republican House members who have made demands of him in exchange for their support.

McCarthy has said some of these requests have his backing, including the creation of a 72-hour requirement between when the final text of a bill is released and when the House votes on it, as well as a proposal for House GOP to block legislation from Senate Republicans who supported the omnibus government funding bill late last month.

He has also agreed to a rule that allows for five House Republicans to make a motion to “vacate the chair,” which would launch a vote to remove the Speaker. House rules have required a majority of a party to support the motion for a vote on removing the Speaker to occur. But some Republicans had pushed for allowing a single member to make the motion.

Biggs, Gaetz, Good, Norman, Rosendale

From left to right: Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bob Good (Va.), Ralph Norman (S.C.) and Matt Rosendale (Mont.). (AP Photos)

Republican Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bob Good (Va.), Ralph Norman (S.C.) and Matt Rosendale (Mont.) have been the most adamant about not supporting McCarthy, and reportedly plan to vote as a bloc on McCarthy’s candidacy.

The five could be enough to deny McCarthy victory, at least on the first ballot, or possibly altogether if McCarthy cannot organize a winning coalition.

McCarthy told conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in December that he expects they will come around “in the end” but acknowledged they have not moved from their position as their talks have continued.

Biggs challenged McCarthy to be the Republicans’ choice for Speaker in November. McCarthy easily won in a closed-door vote, 188 to 31, but Biggs’ challenge demonstrated McCarthy’s lack of full support, at least at the time.

Gaetz wrote in an op-ed in The Daily Caller last month that McCarthy “has no ideology” and would cave “to liberals.” Norman told The Hill earlier this month that he does not plan to vote for McCarthy but is still meeting with him, adding that “miracles do happen.”

Lauren Boebert

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) arrives to meet with fellow Republicans behind closed doors as Republicans hold its leadership candidate forum at the Capitol in Washington, Monday, Nov. 14, 2022. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) on Tuesday said for the first time she would not vote for McCarthy.

She previously had withheld her support, but not clearly said she would be a “no” vote while drawing a line in the sand for what he must agree to in order to win her support.

Boebert said at a Turning Point USA conference last month that she would not support his bid unless he agrees to the “accountability mechanism” allowing members to make a motion to removing the Speaker.

The rule governing a motion to vacate under Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has required a majority of a party’s caucus members to support its use. Boebert has said that revising the rule is her “red line” for supporting McCarthy and that all negotiations must start with that.

Crane and Ogles

Reps.-elect Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) and Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) speak at rallies. (AP Photos)

Reps.-elect Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) and Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) will have their first day in Congress on Tuesday and could almost immediately play a key role in determining McCarthy’s fate. The two, along with five other GOP lawmakers separate from the group of five potentially operating as a bloc, signed a letter sent to Republican colleagues in December outlining a list of demands they expect from a future House speaker.

The demands include the ability to force a vote on removing the speaker, declining to raise the debt ceiling without having a plan to cap spending and balance the federal budget in 10 years, and banning House Republican leadership and leadership-affiliated PACs from getting involved in primaries.

The sitting House members who signed the letter are members of the House Freedom Caucus, which is made up of some of the most conservative members of the Republican conference.

Scott Perry and the Freedom Caucus

Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) speaks to reporters as he arrives for a House Republican Leadership Forum for the 118th Congress on Monday, November 14, 2022. (Greg Nash)

Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), chair of the House Freedom Caucus and one of the signers of the letter that Crane and Ogles backed, stood by the letter as members of Congress left Washington ahead of the holidays.

“Nothing’s changed. Requests are still there,” he said.

Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.), another signer of the letter, issued a separate statement noting that the letter is not aimed only at McCarthy but anyone wishing to become Speaker.

But caucus members are not united on whether to support McCarthy. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has been one of McCarthy’s most vocal backers, arguing that an alternative to him could be less supportive of the far-right members of the conference.

Gaetz has called on another Freedom Caucus member, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), to run for Speaker, but Jordan has fully thrown his support behind McCarthy.

Perry was also part of the group that threatened to “thwart” any legislative proposals from Republican senators who voted for the government funding bill.

Steve Scalise

House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) addresses reporters following the House Republican Leadership Election for the 118th session of Congress on Tuesday, November 15, 2022. (Greg Nash)

One of the challenges facing McCarthy’s opponents has been the lack of a clear alternative who could be elected Speaker instead. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) would be an obvious choice.

Scalise, selected as House majority leader for when Republicans retake control of the chamber on Tuesday, has said he supports McCarthy, but he would be among — if not the most — plausible alternative if McCarthy is unable to get the necessary votes to win.

Scalise expressed confidence that McCarthy would prevail, when asked on Dec. 23 about speculation of him being another potential option.

“Kevin’s going to get there, and he’s going to have a lot of meetings with members to make sure that we get this result on January 3,” he said.

But Politico reported on Thursday that some allies of McCarthy have said Scalise could be doing more to help with McCarthy’s Speaker bid.

Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump announces he is running for president for the third time at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., Nov. 15, 2022. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

McCarthy criticized Trump in the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, but the two have returned to being close allies since then.

Trump voiced support for McCarthy becoming the Speaker in an interview with Breitbart in December. He said he warned the group of five GOP House members who are opposing McCarthy that they are “playing a very dangerous game.”

“Look, I think this: Kevin has worked very hard,” Trump said. “I think he deserves the shot. Hopefully, he’s going to be very strong and going to be very good and he’s going to do what everybody wants.”

He pointed to the situation following former House Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) resignation in 2015, which led the party to eventually turn to former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.). Trump said Ryan was a “disaster” for the party.

Updated at 12:22 p.m.