Cook Political Report shifts seven House races toward Dems

The Cook Political Report has shifted seven House races toward the Democratic Party.

The nonpartisan elections analyst announced Wednesday it had updated the races in seven districts, all currently held by Republicans, to reflect “improved Democratic prospects” ahead of the November midterm elections.

Four of the seats were shifted from “solid” Republican to “likely” Republican, and the other three from “likely” Republican to “lean” Republican.

The newest FEC filings are out. We’re shifting the rating in seven house races: #AZ08 Solid to Likely R#AR02 Likely to Lean R#IL14 Likely to Lean R#MI01 Solid to Likely R#OH14 Solid to Likely R#SC05 Solid to Likely R#VA05 Likely to Lean Rhttps://t.co/AfDnnv6730

— CookPoliticalReport (@CookPolitical) April 18, 2018

Cook moved the race for the Arizona House seat formerly held by Rep. Trent Franks (R) — who resigned after reportedly discussing paying a staffer to act as a surrogate mother — shifted from “solid” to “lean” Republican.

{mosads}Also no longer considered “solid” by the election handicapper: GOP Reps. Jack Bergman (Mich.), David Joyce (Ohio) and Ralph Norman (S.C.).

The three Republicans downgraded from “likely” to “lean” by Cook on Wednesday are Reps. French Hill (Ariz.), Randy Hultgren (Ill.) and Tom Garrett (Va.).

Cook now lists 179 House seats as “solid” for Democrats, compared to only 156 for Republicans. 

The rating changes come after the newest Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports show Democratic challengers out-raised Republicans in at least 60 GOP-held seats in the most recent cycle.

“Even before last week, Democratic donors had been demonstrating far more enthusiasm on a race-by-race basis, a fact reflected in the newest House fundraising reports. The newest FEC filings spell danger for Republicans, ” Cook election analyst David Wasserman wrote in a new blog post on Wednesday.

On top of the quarterly reports, 15 Republican incumbents had less cash on hand than their likely Democratic challengers, according to Open Secrets.

Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats in the midterms to retake the majority in the House. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Democrats currently have a 5.5-point lead over Republicans in a generic congressional vote.

Ben Kamisar contributed.