Spy balloon offers worrying trial run for a bigger US-China crisis

The U.S. downing of a Chinese spy balloon over the weekend is offering Washington and Beijing a dress rehearsal for an unexpected crisis — and the results are concerning. 

While the incident has deepened distrust and suspicion between U.S. and Chinese officials and delayed strategic talks meant to stabilize the relationship, the risk of dangerous confrontation between the two global superpowers appears low. 

Still, the battle between Republicans and Democrats — in a partisan atmosphere where China is seen as America’s biggest foe ideologically and economically — has the potential to inflame crises into dangerous territory. 

The chorus of GOP criticism of President Biden’s delay in shooting down the balloon “shows just how charged the atmosphere is in Washington as it relates to China,” said David Sacks, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, where his work focuses on U.S.-China relations.

Sacks said that both parties don’t want to “look weak on China,” but that raises concern over how much space U.S. officials would have to cool down an even more explosive confrontation. 

“If you had a real crisis on your hands, it would be very difficult to de-escalate and it would be really difficult for a president of either party to find the decision space that he or she needs to try and work out a diplomatic resolution, because there will be loud calls to take as strong of an action as possible,” he said. 

And the potential for real crises is high, given flashpoints of tension between Beijing and Washington that include Taiwan, the nuclear threat from North Korea or China’s tacit support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Chinese officials are signaling they are prepared to cut off communication at the highest levels with U.S. officials. The Pentagon on Tuesday said that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was rebuffed by his Chinese counterpart when he sought to reach him by phone after the U.S. shot down the balloon.

“We believe in the importance of maintaining open lines of communication between the United States and the PRC in order to responsibly manage the relationship,” Ryder Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a statement. “Lines between our militaries are particularly important in moments like this.”

But analysts say the Chinese response to the U.S. discovery of the balloon has revealed a surprisingly shaky state of affairs under Chinese President Xi Jinping, raising the risk for more unexpected crises.  

“Regarding the Chinese reaction, there’s something quite extraordinary here. … It seems that there is a confusion here, that there is inconsistency in terms of the response,” said Ho-Fung Hung, a professor in political economy at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.

Hung said that the confusing messages coming from Chinese officials — initially expressing regret that the balloon entered U.S. airspace and then incredulity that Biden had sent a missile to shoot it down — mirrors similar confusion coming from officials amidst China’s COVID-19 response and other domestic crises.

The draconian pandemic regulations were relaxed in the wake of widespread protests, but Chinese officials appeared unprepared to respond, or acknowledge infection outbreaks that followed.

“It reflects something going on in the Chinese government, that Xi Jinping is apparently in control, but the state seems more fragmented,” Hung said. 

Biden officials say they are looking to have the right conditions to reschedule a visit by Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China that was canceled in the wake of the balloon’s discovery, but have not addressed what steps Beijing needs to take to smooth relations.

Expectations were already low for Blinken’s anticipated meetings, which were to take place this week. But the visit was viewed as a critical venue for U.S. and Chinese officials to address how they communicate over the most volatile issues in the relationship, and how to prevent geopolitical explosions.

The most dangerous of these issues for both the U.S. and China is Taiwan, the self-ruled, democratic island that Beijing is intent on subsuming under the control of the Chinese Communist Party.

Biden has committed at least four times to aid Taiwan’s defense in the event of a Chinese military attack, even as his senior officials stress that the administration is working in line with long-held policy declarations between Washington and Beijing related to Taipei. 

Blinken’s visit to Beijing was meant to re-establish channels of communication — on climate change and military to military — that China severed in response to a visit to Taiwan in August by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)

And China is likely to lash out more if House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) follows through on reported plans to visit Taiwan, with the Chinese foreign mInistry last month issuing a statement warning against such travel. 

Even as the U.S. has identified China as its toughest global competitor, the Biden administration has stressed it seeks to cooperate on areas of mutual concern, in particular climate change, but also nuclear nonproliferation, with an unpredictable, nuclear-armed North Korea on China’s border.

And the U.S. has homed in on a potential opening with China to address Russia’s war in Ukraine, pointing to remarks by Xi in December to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he had “questions and concerns” about the then-10 month conflict. 

“The United States and China share a strong common interest in not going to war with each other and global stability, generally speaking. This gives them a reason to engage with each other,” said Patricia Kim, an expert on China and East Asia at the Brookings Institution. 

“I think the interests are there, but it’s just a very tricky climate with nationalism high on both sides, with mutual trust very low.” 

But the two sides are unlikely to come together anytime soon given the fallout from the spy balloon. 

“There might have been a tiny hope on the Chinese side that the Biden administration would be softer than the previous Trump administration,” Kim said. “But I think those hopes were quickly dashed when they realized that there is a pretty strong consensus in the United States that China is the pacing challenge for the United States, and that the Biden administration also has its eyes fixed on competing with China.”

While the Chinese appeared to ease off their “wolf warrior” diplomacy amid the planning of Blinken’s visit, and conveyed regret in the immediate aftermath of the balloon’s discovery, foreign ministry officials have since doubled down on describing the balloon as a civilian weather research tool and deriding the U.S. for overreacting. 

The signs from both sides suggest a resumption of talks between the U.S. and China is far off, and controversy surrounding the balloon will likely be dragged out amid interest in what intelligence the U.S. is able to glean from the recovery of the debris.  

“The most realistic outcome is that tensions settle over time, and the two sides can get back on track. I don’t think it’s impossible, but it’s remote for now,” Kim said.

“I think both sides just want space from this event,” added Sacks of the Council on Foreign Relations. “I think it has to kind of blow over, it has to fade from the news and then, kind of, U.S.-China diplomacy will resume.”