GOP can gain in House, Senate by running on economic numbers

Friday’s monthly employment report was indeed extraordinary. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to an 18-year low of 3.8 percent in May while a 223,000 new jobs were added. The most astounding aspect of the report is not just what the numbers are, but where most of the change lies.

Indeed, many of the increases in employment lie within groups whose job numbers have typically remained stagnant: black workers, younger workers, and those who do not have a high school degree. Meanwhile, increases in the number of both retail and construction jobs further suggests that opportunities are steadily growing for lower-middle and middle-income workers across the country.

{mosads}Taken together, these increases suggest a new platform for Republicans going into 2018, and one that could present notable gains for them in the midterm elections. Put simply, if the Republicans are to hold onto control of the Senate and maximize their chances of maintaining control of the House come November, they must put away the polarizing populist playbook and run on the economy.

To be sure, many right-wing Republicans have used the politics of resentment, division, and demonization in recent years with arguably successful results. But given the current climate, this tactic will certainly not be as well-suited for the upcoming midterm elections.

Rather than championing hardline stances on immigration or other social issues as a means of isolating and dividing the electorate, Republicans must tout the palpable economic progress this country has seen with Republicans at the helm of the White House and both bodies of Congress. Republican candidates would be wise to underscore the degree to which benefits have accrued due to tax cuts and reductions in regulations, not only for the wealthy, but also for ordinary, hardworking Americans.

I learned firsthand the power that inclusive economic appeals can have in generating an optimistic economic outlook, rallying the country, and producing a stronger nation, as a senior adviser to President Clinton. During the Clinton administration, our emphasis on these inclusive themes ultimately led to President Clinton’s reelection and the Democratic Party’s resurgence in 1996. Inclusive fiscally prudent policies and cutting the capital gains rate also allowed the Democratic Party to make gains in the 1998 midterm election, even as talks of impeachment were escalating.

Indeed, the failure of Al Gore in 2000 to embrace those policies and advocate for inclusiveness was likely one of the factors that led to his defeat. Given the degree of polarization that exists in America today, I believe the Republicans can, and arguably should, speak to the inclusiveness of the economic recovery, as well as the broad-based benefits that all Americans have achieved. In doing so, they can highlight the failure of the Democratic Party to offer a similar agenda.

Finally, the last thing the Republicans need to do — and I am certain Larry Kudlow knows this as well as anyone — is to put forth a tax cut agenda that seeks to lower, even modestly, individual rates across the board. The reason last year’s tax cuts have not been as popular as they conceivably should be is because the bulk of the benefit appears to go and, indeed, has gone to major corporations rather than to ordinary Americans.

If President Trump were to offer an across the board tax cut agenda that reduces the individual rate for middle-class Americans, when the midterm campaigns start to intensify in the fall, the Republicans might find the same success in the 2018 elections that Democrats enjoyed in 1998.

As an American, I am proud of the economic gains we are achieving. While the extent of how widespread these benefits are is not fully appreciated by the political class, President Trump’s slowly climbing approval ratings, now around 44 percent, there are plenty of Americans who share this appreciation of the progress that has been achieved.

Make no mistake, I remain a centrist Democrat. It is my greatest hope that my party adopts this inclusive appeal, as I have implored it to do in numerous columns calling on Democrats to unite behind a moderate, pro-growth and inclusive platform that will bring voters of all backgrounders back into the party if they hope to succeed this November.

But absent such a bold move from the left, it would be a profound mistake for Republicans to not capitalize on the nation’s recent economic progress, as doing so not only benefits the party, but the political fortunes of its members. If Republicans can shift their rhetoric from threatening government shutdowns over a border wall towards underscoring the degree to which their singular focus on economic progress has benefited virtually every group at each stratum, then they can maximize their chances of success in November.

Douglas E. Schoen (@DouglasESchoen) served as a pollster for President Clinton. A longtime political consultant, he is also a Fox News contributor and the author of 11 books, including “Putin’s Master Plan: To Destroy Europe, Divide NATO, and Restore Russian Power and Global Influence.”