The Ukraine war offers a chance to solve Moldova’s Transnistria problem

During last month’s summit of the second European Political Community in Moldova, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seized the moment.

He called for an end to the lingering “frozen conflicts,” notably the contentious issue of Transnistria. He stated unequivocally that enduring conflict is intolerable, whether frozen or conventional.

His message came at a time when Russia’s recent brush with mutiny from the Wagner mercenary group was indicating its internal vulnerabilities, presenting a window of opportunity to address the security risks posed to Europe from frozen conflicts.

Transnistria, a self-declared republic squeezed between the Dniester River and Ukraine’s border, emerged from the crumbling Soviet Union. When Moldova prepared to cut its Soviet ties in 1990, Transnistria strove for its own independence, leading to a face-off with Moldovan forces. Then the Russian army stepped in. Presently, around 1,500 Russian soldiers are still stationed there under the label of “peacekeepers,” despite ongoing appeals from Moldova’s government to cease the occupation.

Despite Russia’s military intervention in 1992, Moldova managed to sustain robust relations with Moscow, receiving gas supplies at discounted rates. Gradually, though, Moldova shifted its gaze towards the West, building a relationship with NATO in 1992 and signing an association agreement with the European Union (EU) in 2014. This inclination toward EU integration and alignment with Western principles created a rift in its relationship with Russia.

The seismic shock of Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine reverberated across the region, potentially putting Moldova, with a 1,200 kilometer-long border with Ukraine, at risk of becoming collateral damage. Moscow has continued to threaten Moldova against adopting an “anti-Russia” stance, in an attempt to flex its imperial ambitions once again. 

Mikhail Galuzin, the deputy head of Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, raised concerns about Moldova’s “Euro-Atlantic course,” even hinting at the possibility of a situation akin to Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan underscored the gravity of Moldova’s situation, suggesting it is at greater risk than even the Baltic countries or Poland. Although Ukraine’s inspiring fight against Russian forces provides some breathing space for Moldova to regain stability, the harsh truth is Moldova’s military lacks the resources to effectively counter significant threats.

While Ukraine’s counteroffensive gains momentum, and Russia braces itself for the backlash, Moldova is quietly trying to disentangle itself from Russia’s grip, building stronger ties with the EU. In June 2022, both Moldova and Ukraine were recognized as official EU candidates, in a tangible display of defiance.

Moldova has responded assertively to rising tensions, taking concrete actions to resist Russian interference. In February, Ukraine said it had intercepted a Russian plan to overthrow Moldova’s government. It passed a law punishing separatist activities and requested NATO’s help in bolstering its air defense capabilities, indicating a hard-line stance against Russia and Transnistria.

In July 2022, Chișinău delineated its stance on the separatist state and the presence of Russian forces, setting a clear “red line.” Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a stern message to Moscow, forbidding a Russian delegation from entering the country. Moreover, it underscored the immediate and unconditional requirement to recommence the withdrawal of Russian troops and ammunition depots from Moldova. 

While the Russian forces stationed in Transnistria are among the least capable in the Russian army, their strategic location could yet create instability in both Ukraine and Moldova. 

The Transnistrian populace — one third of whom are ethnic Ukrainians and a substantial number of whom hold Ukrainian citizenship — might be sympathetic toward Ukraine. The unrecognized president of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselsky, chose a careful neutral stance during Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, aware of the potential repercussions locals and from Ukrainian authorities.

Transnistria is rightfully worried about a Ukrainian intervention, and its behavior reflects a potential willingness to conduct negotiations in the future. 

Possible solutions include a negotiated settlement, focusing on the economic benefits of integration for Transnistria, or even considering the implementation of a treaty of neutrality. This would be akin to Austria’s experience in 1955, which might persuade the Russian peacekeepers to leave. This treaty would forbid membership in NATO or the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. 

If a peaceful resolution is not possible, Moldova might then consider a Ukrainian military intervention and establish a joint defense treaty. If Ukraine were to apprehend Transnistria’s 1,500 Russian soldiers, they could become a valuable asset to Ukraine’s prisoner exchange program, while neutralizing the Russian threat in the region.

President Putin’s past responses to internal mutiny and international incidents (as when Turkey shot down a Russian jet over Syria in 2015) have shown a pattern of restraint and preference for negotiation. This suggests that if Moldova and Ukraine decide to take military action, Russia would opt for negotiation instead of confrontation.

If Moldova can successfully reintegrate Transnistria, it would also set the precedent for other contested regions such as South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia. 

The fate of nations who neighbor Russia is intertwined with the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian war. A perceived Russian victory would likely encourage the Kremlin to exert force on other neighbors. To prevent this, it’s vital to support Ukraine’s resistance and help nations like Moldova resolve their frozen conflicts. 

With Ukraine fighting back against Russia and Russia grappling with internal strife, the time is ripe for decisive action. Every resolution to these frozen European conflicts, including the Transnistrian issue, coupled with Ukraine’s triumph over Russia, moves Europe one step closer to the dream of a sustained, all-encompassing peace.

David Kirichenko is a freelance journalist and an editor at Euromaidan Press.