Ukraine’s fate hangs in the balance as Zelensky descends on DC

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with congressional leadership and President Biden on Tuesday with the fate of ongoing U.S. support for Ukraine’s war effort against Russia hanging in the balance.

Zelensky’s visit to Washington, in which he’s expected both on Capitol Hill and at the White House, comes as many lawmakers from both sides of the aisle agree that the U.S. should continue support to Kyiv, but are at a fierce stalemate over changes to immigration policies that have them pointing fingers at each other.

“It’s not just Republicans that are holding a hard line. It’s Democrats that are holding a hard line,” Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) told NBC on Sunday about why border security continues to be the holdup.

Meanwhile, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) called the timing “a crisis moment for Ukraine.”

“This is one of the most dangerous moments that I’ve ever faced in American politics, and I wish Republicans weren’t holding Israel aid and aid to Ukraine hostage to the resolution of immigration reform,” he also told NBC.

The White House has said it will run out of money to support Ukraine by the end of the year if Congress does not act, warning a break in funding would “kneecap” Ukraine on the battlefield.

The fight over funding is a boon to Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose war strategy is to break apart international solidarity for Kyiv and outlast the Ukrainians’ will to fight. 

The Ukrainian president’s visit will serve to demonstrate that U.S. and Ukrainian ties remain strong despite chaos on Capitol Hill and domestic partisan battles. 

Biden, for his part, will “make it very clear to President Zelensky and the Ukrainian people that we’re going to support them, particularly at this very difficult time,” John Kirby, a White House spokesperson on national security issues, told reporters Monday.

The visit also serves as a chance for the president to get an update from Zelensky about progress on the battlefield, where Ukraine’s top general, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has warned of a stalemate, and other top officials say the war is grinding into a battle of attrition. 

Zelensky will have a different audience to tend to on Capitol Hill, where the Ukrainian president is expected to meet with lawmakers in both parties, including Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who has led the charge on conditioning a House vote on Ukraine aid to stricter policies on the southern border.

Over in the Senate, lawmakers erupted during a briefing that devolved into chaos last week over Republican criticisms that Democrats were refusing to engage in good faith on immigration reform. Zelensky canceled a classified, video conference appearance at that briefing with no stated reason. 

“I think it was a good idea he wasn’t there,” Romney said of Zelensky’s absence at the time, after leaving the briefing in frustration.

“We agree that Ukraine needs the money … but we also recognize that the president put border security on the table as part of this supplemental, and unless they’re willing to shut down the 10,000-a-day being released into the country, they’re not going to get a deal done.” 

Biden said last week he’d be willing to make “significant compromises” on border policy to reach a breakthrough on Ukraine funding. But at the same time, the White House has sounded the alarm over the past week that the U.S. will run out of money to provide military support to Ukraine by the end of the year without Congress passing additional funding.

White House Budget Director Shalanda Young laid out in detail in a letter to congressional leaders this week how the government has already run through most of the roughly $67 billion in military assistance already provided to the Pentagon and State Department.

The White House in late October sent an emergency funding request of roughly $100 billion to Congress seeking additional money for border security, allies in the Indo-Pacific and for Israel and Ukraine in their respective conflicts against Hamas and Russia.

Roughly $61 billion of that request covered money for Ukraine, including $30 billion in equipment for Ukraine from Department of Defense stocks and to backfill those stocks.

The request for Ukraine is expected to cover 2024, underscoring a tight deadline for the Ukrainian military to make gains on the battlefield before pressure increases for Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow — amid waning public support in the U.S. and increasing Republican criticisms. 

Nearly half of Americans, at 48 percent, think the U.S. is spending too much on aid for Ukraine, according to a poll conducted by The Financial Times-Michigan Ross. The poll found Republicans were more likely to be critical of aid for Ukraine compared to Independents and Democrats. 

U.S. officials reportedly assess that Putin is waiting for the results of the U.S. presidential election before engaging in any peace talks, giving Kyiv a slight reprieve from concern that it could be forced into negotiations over the next year. 

“Nowadays if anyone is willing to discuss with Putin, he won’t,” Jadwiga Emilewicz, the outgoing secretary of state for Polish-Ukrainian development cooperation, said in an interview last week. 

“I think there might be [a] prediction in Moscow, if Trump wins the election, just for example, this war might come to an end because he’s willing to discuss with Putin as soon as possible,” Emilewicz explained.

Emilewicz, who was in Washington to advocate ongoing U.S. support for Ukraine, said Kyiv officials are feeling pressure to scale back their ambitions from freeing all their territory under Russian occupation because of pressure from Washington and European governments. 

“Yes, they feel this pressure, and maybe that’s why they decided to change their policy,” she said, saying there’s a general sense that Ukraine cannot count on the U.S.

White House officials believe Zelensky is Ukraine’s best advocate for articulating why additional U.S. aid is so critical, and his whirlwind trip to Washington, D.C., this week may be his final chance to impress upon lawmakers why congressional action is so necessary.

But Zelensky will face a skeptical audience among some lawmakers in the GOP in particular.

“What’s in America’s best interest is to accept Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory to the Russians, and we need to bring this war to a close,” Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) said Sunday on CNN. “But when I think about the great human tragedy here, hundreds of thousands of Eastern Europeans innocent have been killed in this conflict. The thing that’s in our interest and in theirs is to stop the killing.”