Why Iowa is Nikki Haley’s last stand

Nikki Haley’s prediction last Friday that after the Iowa caucuses, there will be only two candidates left in the Republican presidential primaries – her and former President Donald Trump – underscored the significance the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations is placing on a strong performance in that state.

It also foreshadows the very real possibility that if Haley’s “last stand” in Iowa fails, and she does not have a strong showing, then she, not Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), may be the candidate who doesn’t make it out of Iowa.

And while Haley’s best shot likely comes immediately after Iowa, in New Hampshire, where she figures to benefit from crossover votes from right-leaning independents and where Trump’s 26-point lead is considerably smaller than his 48-point lead nationally, per RealClearPolitics, the electoral calendar means it is highly unlikely that Haley survives a poor showing in the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses.

Indeed, after New Hampshire, the next two primaries are South Carolina, Haley’s home state, and Nevada. In both states, Trump enjoys a considerable polling lead, including a 52-point advantage in Nevada, and will benefit from more conservative electorates than New Hampshire.

Haley herself appears to understand that she must make an impressive stand in Iowa if she is to have any chance, however small, of toppling Donald Trump. For starters, she has reset expectations, saying, “We just need to have a good showing in Iowa. I don’t think that means we have to win necessarily, but I think that means we have to have a good showing.”

While those comments may not sound optimistic, they are at least realistic, especially when compared to DeSantis. Despite being virtually tied with Haley 17 percent to 15 percent, respectively, in the latest Iowa State/Civiqs poll, DeSantis recently told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that “We’re going to win Iowa.”

Haley is also likely hoping that she can capitalize on the endorsement of the Koch network, the country’s largest conservative grassroots organization, to propel her to a clear second place, and Americans for Prosperity, another supportive conservative group, which is spending $4 million on ads and canvassing to help Haley in the state.

Whether Haley’s recently supercharged ground game in Iowa will be enough to overcome DeSantis’s Never Back Down PAC, which has been focused on the state for months, and DeSantis’s endorsement by Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds remains to be seen, but Haley understands the importance of getting off to a good start.

With all of this in mind, should Haley fail to decisively separate from the rest of the GOP field, and DeSantis in particular, it is no stretch to say that it would essentially be the nail in her campaign’s coffin.

To that point, if Haley’s campaign all but ends in Iowa, it may behoove her to consider playing for a position she could arguably get – vice president in a Trump administration – by acknowledging her reservations but ultimately endorsing him.

Given Trump’s dominating lead, any hopes of dethroning him necessitate a consolidation of the non-Trump candidates behind the strongest alternative, and a poor finish in Iowa would make it near impossible for Haley to make the case that she is the best candidate to beat Trump in the other states.

Further, an unimpressive performance would blunt Haley’s momentum – which has been rising amid high-profile endorsements, courting of Wall Street donors and growing strength in the polls – going into New Hampshire, which may put a win or even second place finish in the Granite State in jeopardy.

Put another way, Haley’s extremely narrow road to victory calls for top-tier finishes in the first two states and possibly a win in South Carolina if her homefield advantage is enough to overcome the 26-point lead (49 percent to 23 percent) Trump enjoys in the state, per Trafalgar polling.

Ultimately, with just under one month until Republicans in Iowa make their choice for their party’s nominee, the pressure is on for Haley, who has spent much of the past month-plus positioning herself as the one candidate who can take on Donald Trump in a primary, and the best candidate to beat President Biden in a general election.

On that last point, Haley certainly has a case to make, as she beat Biden by 17 points (51 percent to 34 percent) compared to Trump’s 4-point lead over Biden (47 percent to 43 percent) in a recent Wall Street Journal poll.

However, while Haley may be Republicans’ best general election candidate, it likely will matter little if her “last stand” in Iowa fails to resonate with that state’s caucus-goers.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”