How a debate ultimatum from Biden could rattle the GOP primary

With about a week until Republican primary voting gets underway in Iowa, Donald Trump continues to enjoy polling advantages nationally and in important early states. 

Despite the best efforts of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) and former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, Trump remains a prohibitive frontrunner in the race. He’s amassing support from a majority of GOP primary voters in most states and has a historically unprecedented lead in Iowa. 

Under pressure from the Trump campaign, the Republican National Committee recently paused its participation in hosting additional debates this month after sponsoring four events in the fall. 

Republican presidential candidates are now free to participate in any debate or forum they wish. CNN and ABC have scheduled a total of three debates in Iowa and New Hampshire this month, including tonight’s CNN Iowa debate. The debates will take place just days before voting begins in these two crucial early states. They will be watched by millions of voters and present the last high-profile opportunities for DeSantis and Haley to make up significant ground on Trump and alter the trajectory of the primary.

Even with these new media-sponsored debate opportunities in Iowa and New Hampshire, DeSantis and Haley know they need Trump to finally participate if they are to make up any significant polling ground. Several candidates have delivered admirable performances in the previous Republican debates, but Trump’s primary lead has only increased with each passing month. 

Acutely aware of this phenomenon, DeSantis and Haley have ramped up their public pressure for Trump to take part in the upcoming debates. 

DeSantis has called Trump a “keyboard warrior” and repeatedly criticized him on the campaign trail for refusing to participate in primary debates. 

“He parachutes in for [a] 30, 45-minute, hour speech and then just leaves, rather than listening to Iowans answering questions and doing, I think, what it takes to win,” DeSantis said. 

Haley has called out Trump on social media for not participating in debates before the Iowa caucuses, noting that the race is essentially down to three candidates and “it’s time for Donald Trump to show up.” 

“As the debate stage continues to shrink, it’s getting harder for Donald Trump to hide,” she added. 

Despite this full-court press, Trump is scheduled to participate in a live Fox News Des Moines town hall with Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum the same evening as the debate. Unlike 2016, voters have not yet punished Trump for missing primary debates and his various counterprogramming events have helped decrease their audience sizes and ratings.

Instead of complaints from DeSantis and Haley, the only action at this time that could get Trump back on the Republican primary debate stage is a surprise ultimatum from President Biden. 

Although the Commission on Presidential Debates recently unveiled the dates and locations of three proposed fall presidential debates, President Biden’s campaign is not yet committed to these. When pressed about this, President Biden’s top deputy campaign manager, Quentin Fulks, pointed out that Trump is not attending Republican primary debates. 

Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel vociferously lobbied Trump to participate in primary debates because she thought boycotting them could give President Biden an excuse to avoid debating him in the general election. 

Given this unique dynamic and opportunity, President Biden should publicly announce that if Trump is the Republican nominee for president, he will not debate him in the general election unless he also participates in the upcoming primary debates in Iowa or New Hampshire. Trump of course could readily dismiss this unorthodox demand, but he’d have to seriously consider it. 

He’s dead set on debating the 81-year-old president in the fall and thinks it’s an integral part of a successful general election strategy in a close race. Trump told Bret Baier in June that he and Biden “have to debate.” He recently told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt that he would do “20 debates” with Biden even if they were all organized by the much-maligned Commission on Presidential Debates.

No matter how Trump responds to the ultimatum, it would be a deft use of the bully pulpit with little political downside. Politics makes strange bedfellows, so this surprise move would cause intraparty tensions and be warmly welcomed by the campaigns of DeSantis, Haley and Chris Christie. 

During the Simi Valley debate, Christie called Trump “missing in action” and penned the nickname “Donald Duck” because of Trump’s penchant for skipping debates. In the Miami debate, DeSantis said Trump owed it to voters to be on stage and explain his failures regarding federal spending, border wall construction and draining the political swamp. 

Trump will turn 78 in June and his opponents argue that numerous campaign trail gaffes like calling Hezbollah “very smart’ or referring to Hamas as hummus show a frontrunner who has declined in the last several years and is not as politically formidable today. 

Haley has said that politicians over 75 years old should take mental competency exams and that she never gets confused. Trump’s participation in primary debates would allow the other candidates to make these arguments directly while sharing the same stage and hoping for a disqualifying gaffe. 

At the very least, this could prolong Trump’s eventual primary victory which could come as soon as March, absent some unexpected development. Given Trump’s three debate performances against Hillary Clinton and his disastrous showing against Biden in Cleveland, the president should feel comfortable however this scenario plays out. 

Biden should not be afraid to exercise every point of leverage afforded to presidential incumbents ahead of a very close and historically important 2024 election.

Aaron Kall is the Lee H. Hess director of debate and communication lecturer at The University of Michigan and editor/co-author of “Debating The Donald.”