If age forces Joe Biden to stand down, who will step up? 

A damning critique by Republican special counsel Robert Hur has brought President Biden’s age and declining faculties into sharp focus. After interviewing Biden, Hur described him as as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” who had “diminished faculties in advancing age.” While comparatively healthy for an 81-year-old man, Biden’s long-term speech impediments and memory losses are worrying many Americans. 

If Biden’s age-related issues were to accelerate rapidly — though let’s be clear, there is no reason to indicate that they will — he would be forced to withdraw his nomination for the 2024 U.S. presidential race.  

So, who are the main Democrats ready to step up? 

Gretchen Whitmer (52) 

The popular Michigan governor is a pragmatist from the Rust Belt. She advocates for women’s health care and Medicaid expansion. While she works with local Republicans on a balanced state budget, and has passed 900 bipartisan bills, she has repeatedly denied tax cuts for Michiganians to relieve rising living costs. When asked about her presidential aspirations, Whitmer has said “I intend to serve four years as governor.” But intending to do something is not the same as saying you don’t want to do it. 

Dean Phillips (55) 

Phillips has already thrown his hat into the ring. He is a Jewish congressman from the idiosyncratic Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. His birth father died in the Vietnam War and his grandmother was famous advice columnist Dear Abby. Phillips strongly believes in term limits for the Senate and the Supreme Court. He is a Biden centrist, but has recently said about Biden, “voters want competition not a coronation.” 

Jared Polis (48)  

Polis is a highly experienced politician who gets results. The Colorado gay billionaire does not back down on hard progressive issues, and has improved infrastructure and internet access across his state. However, Colorado has high drug use and mental health issues, though the governor has tried to introduce programs to combat them. Polis has demurred when asked if he would run for president, yet one of his companies registered the domain name JaredPolisforPresident.com.  

Gavin Newsom (56)  

Newsom is a centrist Democrat. He upset many progressives when he pushed to keep open the state’s last nuclear plant and championed controversial programs to force unhoused people into mental health and substance abuse treatment. He gamely debates on Fox News, where any contentious remark he makes is greatly magnified. However, he is not very popular outside of California. Publicly he denies he will seek the presidency, but privately he has long harbored that ambition.    

Kamala Harris (59)  

Harris is internationally well-recognised. Her stance on abortion rights is popular with women of all political persuasions. Domestically Harris has been steady, but at crucial times hesitant. Biden has allegedly called her “a work in progress,” supposedly because of her inability to build consensus even within her own party. Nevertheless, she would be expected to announce her candidacy. In a mix-and-match candidacy that involves either (or both) a woman with a man or a white person with a person of color, Harris is in the mix. 

Andy Beshear (age 46)  

From a good ol’ Southern political family, Beshaer is a moderate Democrat who works well with Republicans. He is sure to bring in votes from the flyover states. Other advantages are that he has a strong anti-pharma record and supports reforms to health care and pensions. On the other hand, Democratic progressives may rail against his relative conservatism. Beshear has publicly said to no to a nomination, but Kentucky Democrats cite him as a “dark horse” contender. 

Wes Moore (45)  

The war veteran turned Maryland governor is strong on social issues such as housing and education. The lack of a national profile hinders him, and some will view him as just another smooth-talking, urban elitist. He has yet to prove himself in combatting the ongoing crime issues of the state’s largest city, Baltimore. Moore has not declared interest in a presidential run, but DNC insiders are already talking about him as a future candidate. 

All these potential candidates will run on a growing economy, combating dictatorships in China and Russia, and human rights, particularly those of women and gay people.  

The strongest candidate for the Republicans is still the much-indicted former President Trump (77).  He will play on the right-wing talking points of inflation, crime, immigration and gender issues. The other GOP candidate still standing, Nikki Haley (52) is distinguishing herself from Trump, based on her youth and appeal to younger voters. However, she is struggling against the Trump base.  

Of course, it is dangerous to underrate Biden, as partisan Republican Newt Gingrich has rightly noted. Biden has a strong economic record to run on. Maybe it is time to put our inbuilt agism aside. 

Patrick Drennan is a journalist based in New Zealand, with a degree in American history and economics.