House GOP bullish on November despite chaos, unhappiness over last year

WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, W.Va. — House Republicans are ready to turn the page on the 118th Congress.

During their annual retreat at the swanky Greenbrier resort in West Virginia this week, House GOP leaders expressed confidence ahead of the November elections, predicting that the conference will expand its majority and, as a result, have an easier time legislating in the next Congress.

The bullish outlook comes despite a brutal stretch for the GOP majority — which is down to two votes — marked by bitter infighting, persistent chaos and embarrassing defeats on the House floor.

Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), say they can overcome the turmoil. 

“I think that overall we’re very excited about the fall, and that election can’t happen soon enough,” Johnson said at a press conference Thursday, flanked by other GOP leaders.

During his “big team speech” to the GOP conference — which he previewed for reporters ahead of time — Johnson called for unity in the Republican ranks to usher in a larger majority next year.

“Everyone says the next election cycle is the most important one of our lifetimes. We’re all accustomed to saying that; we say it every election cycle. Everybody knows this one truly is for all the marbles,” Johnson said.

“We have to stand together, stick together, get the job done, deliver for the American people. And I’m absolutely convinced that we do that, they’re going to expand our House majority, give us the Senate, and the Republicans will take the White House as well and then we will all be in a much better mood next January, because the agenda will change 180 degrees,” he added.

But for this class of Republicans, unity is a large ask.

The GOP conference has watched its small majority dwindle this Congress, from a tiny four-member margin at the beginning of last year to a razor-thin two-vote edge now.

That has accentuated the disagreements among House Republicans, giving outsize power throw the conference off course to just a handful of GOP lawmakers.

The GOP’s cushion is set to decrease even more next week when Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) retires from the House, a move that will leave Republicans at a two-seat margin but give them less wiggle room on various legislative undertakings.

“As you all know, we have a record-small majority. It’s the second-smallest in U.S. history with a two-vote majority. It will soon shrink once more when Ken Buck leaves after next week,” Johnson said.

The struggles of a small majority were apparent in the first 14 months of this Congress.

Last year, a small band of Republicans opposed former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (Calif.) bid for the top job, prompting an historic 15-round election. Nine months later, eight GOP lawmakers banded with Democrats to dump him from the top job, marking the first successful motion to vacate in U.S. history. McCarthy’s ouster prompted a three-week election to select his successor, with Republicans cycling through three other candidates before deciding on Johnson.

Last month, opposition from three Republicans tanked an effort to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, dealing an embarrassing blow to GOP leaders that forced them to hold a redo vote the following week.

And small groups of Republicans have repeatedly blocked bills in what were once considered routine and undramatic procedural votes.

All of it has led to questions about whether voters are tired of the infighting and ready to give Democrats a chance in November.

Asked Wednesday why voters should give House Republicans another session in the majority after the period of chaos, Johnson pointed to H.R. 1, their energy package, and H.R. 2, the conservative border bill that is a non-starter among Democrats.

“We live in challenging times; we live in a time of divided government. Democracy is messy — sometimes it’s very messy. This is part of that process,” Johnson said. “But I think what you’ve seen is that even though we live in a time of that divided government, and even though the Republicans have, quite literally, almost the smallest majority in U.S., in an effort that some deemed to be impossible, we are actually moving the ball forward and getting the job done.”

Republicans say they’re basing their optimism on practical and political factors.

Practically speaking, Republicans are talking up the map that is taking shape for November. Johnson said the conference is targeting 37 seats to flip this cycle, which includes five districts former President Trump won in the 2020 election and six spots that are open.

Republicans have their sights set on North Carolina, where redistricting delivered new lines that could hand the GOP three or four additional seats. Three Democrats from the Tar Heel State have already said they will call it quits at the end of this Congress. Johnson said Republicans are also eyeing pickups in California and Texas.

“With redistricting, we’re very well-positioned,” Johnson said. “Our recruiting class has been extraordinary as well. Because of the efforts of Richard Hudson and others who’ve worked in leadership at the [National Republican Congressional Committee], we got one of the best classes we’ve ever recruited.”

Politically speaking, Republicans say the environment surrounding the November elections is leaning in their direction, as President Biden grapples with approval ratings that are underwater, consumers see higher prices at the grocery store because of inflation, and issues championed by Republicans — namely immigration — top polls as the matter more important to voters this cycle.

“Republicans in 2024 are gonna grow our majority. We’ve got one of the best political environments we’ve seen in decades because President Joe Biden and the Democrats have failed,” said Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

“If you look at the polling, Biden’s at 39 percent favorable 56 percent unfavorable, and it’s because the American people have realized his policies are making them less prosperous and less safe,” Hudson continued.

Hudson pointed out that immigration has topped polls as the most salient issue ahead of November, a statistic House Republicans have capitalized on in recent months. 

In January, Johnson led a group of more than 60 GOP lawmakers to the U.S.-Mexico border; in February, House Republicans voted to impeach Mayorkas — an effort that took two tries — and last week, the chamber approved a bill named after Laken Riley, the Georgia college student who police say was killed by a man who illegally crossed the border.

All throughout, House Republicans — led by Johnson — have stymied efforts to send additional aid to Ukraine in the name of border security, demanding conservative policy changes in exchange for sending assistance overseas.

“On the immigration and border, most of the polling, most recently when I looked at it, was Gallup has it as the No. 1 issue for the American people,” Johnson said. “We believe a big part of that is because the House Republicans have been so consistent in highlighting what is an absolute catastrophe on the border that’s created by this administration.”

Democrats have sought to counter the GOP’s hold on the immigration debate. Newly elected Rep. Thomas Suozzi (D-N.Y.) made immigration a key issue in his special election race last month, and Biden used his State of the Union to harangue Republicans for killing a bill full of border security provisions.

Democrats are also seeking to tie Republicans to former President Trump, who clinched the GOP presidential nomination this week, hoping he will be a drag on the entire ticket after he took the blame for Senate GOP losses in 2022.

Republicans at the retreat dismissed those concerns.

“Republicans, particularly in the House, never do better than when President Trump is on the ballot,” House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (N.Y.), a close Trump ally, argued during a press conference. “We will do exceptionally well with Trump at the top of the ballot in Senate races and in these key House races because no one turns out voters and supporters stronger than President Trump. So we feel very optimistic.”