The Hill’s Campaign Report: North Carolina special election poses test for GOP ahead of 2020

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your weekly rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.

We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching this week on the campaign trail. 

 

LEADING THE DAY: 

As Hurricane Dorian bears down on the North Carolina coast, there’s a political storm brewing inland. 

The special election to represent the state’s 9th Congressional District, set for Tuesday, is the culmination of months of controversy and political fighting. The district has been held by Republicans for nearly 60 years and President Trump won it by nearly 12 points in 2016. But Democrats came within striking distance of capturing the district last year, with the party’s candidate, Dan McCready, trailing Republican Mark Harris by only 905 votes.

Allegations of ballot fraud by a contractor for Harris’s campaign and an ensuing investigation by state election officials voided the results of last year’s vote and prompted a special election. Harris dropped out of the race and was replaced on the ballot by Dan Bishop, an ultra-conservative state senator who authored North Carolina’s controversial bathroom bill.

McCready and Democrats say they have sought to make the special election about kitchen-table issues – health care and drug prices – hoping to recreate the campaigns that helped Democrats capture a majority in the House in the 2018 midterm elections. Republicans, meanwhile, have worked to tie Bishop to Trump in an effort to turn out the president’s conservative base. 

The two strategies couldn’t be more different; the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has tried to avoid nationalizing the special election, playing a behind-the-scenes role for most of the race. Republicans, on the other hand, have homed in on national issues like Trump’s proposed border wall. Trump is set to rally for Bishop in Fayetteville, N.C. on Monday.

Democrats are convinced they have an edge in voter enthusiasm – and some Republicans fear that may be the case. But they’re hoping that Trump’s visit to the district ahead of Election Day will help propel Bishop over the finish line.

Looming over the final days of the race is Hurricane Dorian, which bore down on the North Carolina coast on Friday. The weather closed a number of early voting sites this week, throwing a wrench in both parties’ efforts to turn out voters ahead of Election Day. Both McCready and Bishop have called for state officials to extend early voting through Saturday.

Also happening on Tuesday: the special election in North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District to replace former Rep. Walter Jones (R-N.C.), who passed away earlier this year. That race has been much quieter, however, with Republican Greg Murphy favored to win over Democrat Allen Thomas.

I’m heading to NC-09 this week for the final days of the race, so be sure to check back for dispatches from the district.

— Max Greenwood

 

READ MORE:

North Carolina closes early voting for key House race as Dorian batters state, from The Hill’s Julia Manchester.

 

FROM THE TRAIL:

LATE BREAKING NEWS: Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz abandoned his plans to launch a 2020 bid, writing in a letter on Friday that “not enough people today are willing to consider backing an independent candidate because they fear doing so might lead to re-electing a uniquely dangerous incumbent president.” Schultz’s departure from the 2020 race comes amid a winnowing of the crowded field that has already seen five candidates drop out in recent weeks.

 

The Hill’s Jonathan Easley reports from Austin — Texas Republicans are sounding the alarm as Democratic presidential candidates get ready for their debate next week in Houston, warning that the Lone Star State could become more purple if the party doesn’t treat it as a 2020 battleground.

 

Democrats are struggling to find the right candidate to compete in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, The Hill’s Niall Stanage reports.

 

Also this week, former Vice President Joe Biden defended his ties to a former fossil fuel executive at a climate forum, reports The Hill’s Miranda Green. Meanwhile, Biden’s team is playing the expectations game, saying that he doesn’t have to win Iowa to win the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination.

 

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is under fire from conservatives for saying he would be open to discussing population control as a means to combat climate change, reports The Hill’s Julia Manchester. Meanwhile, Amie Parnes reports that Sanders is struggling to attract older voters, making his path to the nomination tougher.

 

ODDS AND ENDS:

Reid Wilson: The 10 counties that will decide the 2020 election.

Froma Harrop: Biden will win despite apparent lack of enthusiasm around his campaign.

Philip Elliot: Biden holds fragile lead over Democratic field.

Sahil Kapur: Why Harris hasn’t caught fire.

 

POLICY ROLLOUTS:

The Human Rights Campaign will host a town hall with the Democratic presidential contenders next month to focus on LGBTQ issues (The Hill) … Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has adopted parts of Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s climate plan as her own (The Hill) … Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) has a $10 trillion climate plan (The Hill) … South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg would use the Defense Department to combat climate change (The Hill) … Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) has unveiled an education plan promising free preschool and community college (The Hill) … Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D) has a plan to support rural communities (The Hill).

 

FROM CONGRESS:

FIGHT FOR THE HOUSE: Democrats’ lead in the generic 2020 congressional ballot has slipped to 5 points, according to a new Economist–YouGov weekly tracking poll. That represents a 6 point week-over-week drop.

 

WEST VIRGINIA: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) will stay in the Senate and will not return home to run for governor, reports The Hill’s Reid Wilson.

 

KANSAS: State Treasurer Jake LaTurner (R) announced Wednesday that he will drop his Senate bid to launch a primary challenge against freshman Rep. (R-Kan.) for the state’s 2nd Congressional District, reports The Hill’s Juliegrace Brufke.

 

POLL WATCH:

TRUMP: The president’s approval rating remained steady in August, despite growing fears of an economic recession, according to the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll.

 

WISCONSIN: A Marquette University Law School poll released on Wednesday shows Biden leading Trump 51-42 percent in Wisconsin. Sanders also leads Trump in the state, but only by 4 points. Trump is tied with Warren and Harris at 45 and 44 percent support, respectively. 

The Badger State will likely be a must-win state in 2020. Trump flipped it from blue to red in 2016, contributing to his unexpected victory. The state is also slated to play a major role in the Democratic primary. While Sanders won Wisconsin handily in 2016, the Marquette poll presents what his team should see as red flags. The survey shows Biden leading the Democratic primary with 28 percent support, while 20 percent said Sanders was their first choice. 

 

WARREN RISES: Warren’s support continued to rise, according to an IBD/TIPP survey released on Tuesday. The poll shows the Massachusetts senator with 24 percent of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters, marking a 7-point uptick since August. Meanwhile, Biden’s support decreased by 2 points to 28 percent. 

Warren’s rise in a number of polls can likely be attributed to her growing name recognition and detailed policy proposals on a number of issues. Warren has also had relatively good debate performances, taking the opportunity to tout her proposals on the national stage. But expect Biden to put a dent in her momentum in the next debate when they go head-to-head for the first time on the debate stage. Meanwhile, the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris poll finds Biden at 32 percent support, followed by Sanders at 16 and Warren at 13.

 

CLIMATE VOTERS: A survey conducted by the Sierra Club released Wednesday shows that Biden is not only leading in national polls among Democrats, but also among climate-focused voters. The former vice president garnered 30 percent support in the poll, while Warren came in second with 21 percent support. Sanders isn’t far behind at 20 percent. Climate change is becoming a defining issue for a number of voters, especially in the Democratic Party. The findings are notable because Biden’s climate plan has been picked apart by some environmentalists and activists. 

 

MARK YOUR CALENDARS: 

• There are 150 days until the Iowa caucuses, 158 days until the New Hampshire primary, 169 days until the Nevada caucuses, 176 days until the South Carolina primary and 179 days until Super Tuesday.
• Most of the 2020 Democratic presidential contenders will be in Manchester, N.H., this weekend for the state Democratic Party convention.

 

ONE FUN THING

NOTHING TO SEE HERE: Talk show host Stephen Colbert sat down with Biden on Wednesday to discuss an array of topics, including some of the gaffes the former vice president has made on the 2020 campaign trail.  

 

TONIGHT: Stephen holds former VP @JoeBiden‘s feet to the fire over his recent string of gaffes on the campaign trail. #LSSC pic.twitter.com/qQ8rrvdGgb

— The Late Show (@colbertlateshow) September 5, 2019

 

Colbert wasted no time in his line of questioning, asking the former VP if he was “going nuts.”

“Look the reason I came on the Jimmy Kimmel show is because I’m not,” Biden quipped in response. 

Biden said he’s had some verbal slip-ups, but argued they were not issue-based gaffes. 

“I think it’s fair to go after a political figure for anything, OK. I mean we stand up, it comes with the territory, but here’s the deal: any gaffes I have made, and I have made gaffes like every politician I know has, have been not about a substantive issue, have been about I’m trying to talk about what other people have done,” Biden told the talk show host. 

That’s it from us for this week! See you next time!