Takeover opportunities grow for House Dems

The troubles House campaign committees face when their most vulnerable members run for higher office is a familiar topic for Backroom readers. But, in this cycle, Republicans are getting hit hard.

Rep. Jim Gerlach’s (R-Pa.) decision Tuesday to run for governor of Pennsylvania (see related story on this page) and Rep. Mark Kirk’s (R-Ill.) announcement Wednesday that he will run for statewide office (almost surely the Senate) have opened up what are perhaps two of the top four most-Democratic House seats held by a Republican.

{mosads}The Democrats are expected to add a third when Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) either runs for Senate or retires.

Of the seats listed as vulnerable by The Cook Political Report, only Rep. Joseph Cao’s (R-La.) heavily Democratic New Orleans district ranks more blue on Cook’s Partisan Voting Index (PVI). Cao’s is D+25, while Castle’s is second at D+7, Kirk’s is third at D+6 and Gerlach’s is fourth at D+4.

Only five other GOP-held seats even rank in the D+ column.

And in all three races, Democrats seem to have a jump on the Republicans. Democrat Doug Pike has already banked $630,000 in Gerlach’s district, while GOPer Curt Schroder banked just $15,000 for his exploratory committee. Also, a few Democrats are already running for Kirk’s seat, and former Delaware Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) is already running against (for now) Castle. Carney raised more than $260,000 in the second quarter.

What it means is, even if the Democratic waves of the last two cycles break, Democrats could still be favored to add a few seats that would offset any losses.

—A.B.

Obama, Biden to raise funds for N.J., Virginia candidates

President Obama and Vice President Biden will raise money for two candidates for governor on Thursday, aiding what could be two uphill fights.

Obama will appear at a rally and a fundraiser for New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) on Thursday at the PNC Arts Center in northern New Jersey. A spokesman estimated about 200 people would fork over $10,000 to attend the fundraiser, which will benefit Corzine and the state Democratic Party.

Corzine has consistently trailed former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) in public opinion surveys. The latest, a Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 8 to July 12, shows Christie leading by a 53-41 percent margin.

{mosads}Democrats are increasingly worried about Corzine’s campaign, and the governor has already launched advertisements critical of Christie’s record. The Republican Governors Association is running its own advertisements slamming the Democrat.

Meanwhile, Biden will join state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) at a private fundraiser in Richmond, Va. The fundraiser, at the home of a senior vice president of Genworth Financial, will help Deeds close the fundraising gap with his Republican opponent.

Former Virginia Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) announced Tuesday he had $5 million in the bank, after raising $1.8 million over the last fundraising period. After winning the Democratic primary by a surprisingly large margin last month, Deeds raised $3.4 million, much more than McDonnell, but had $2.7 million left.

Polls out of Virginia have shown a much closer contest than that in New Jersey, with Deeds and McDonnell largely running within or close to the margin of error.

But Republicans have the historical winds at their back. Over the last three decades, Virginia has never elected a governor of the same party as the president. The last time that happened was in 1973, when Gov. Mills Godwin (R) won.

— R.W.

Portman the male chauvinist?
Not so much

A cautionary lesson on syntax from former Rep. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who is otherwise very careful at choosing his words:

While talking about the economy with reporters Wednesday morning, the Senate candidate offered this about a woman he met in Ohio:

“She was a temp for months, and one of the temp jobs that she finally got was with this manufacturing company, and a few weeks ago, they hired her full-time. And she’s delighted to have a job. Having talked to her, I think she’s going to work her way up through the system. She’s a really bright, capable woman. And I was struck by that, because it’s such an exception.”

At this point, Portman campaign manager Bob Paduchik seems to look up to make sure no journalist is looking at his or her boss cockeyed.

Almost immediately, though, Portman makes it clear the “exception” was a company that was actually hiring during a recession — not the “bright, capable woman.”

Campaign ad averted.

—A.B.