The campaigns for President Biden and former President Trump have been hit with a cascade of troubling developments this week as voters prepare to choose between two historically unpopular candidates with only five months to go before Election Day.
Biden faces headwinds on old school policy issues, with Democrats expressing frustration over his handling of immigration, Israel and the economy. He also faces questions about his age, which burst back onto the scene Wednesday following a Wall Street Journal report that Democrats furiously disputed.
Trump World, meanwhile, is eyeing a new survey that finds Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent bid could play to Biden’s favor in the battleground states that might determine the outcome of the election.
Primary voters in both parties continued to voice their displeasure with the presumptive nominees through protest votes in elections held Tuesday.
In the New Mexico primary, Biden registered 83.5 percent support, with nearly 10 percent of Democrats voting “uncommitted” and an additional 6.7 percent voting for spiritual teacher Marianne Williamson.
Trump fared about the same, taking 84.5 percent support, with 3.3 percent voting “uncommitted” and a combined 11.2 percent going for Nikki Haley and Chris Christie, who are no longer in the race.
Gallup finds that if the election were held today, it would be only the second time in history that both major party candidates have an approval rating below 50 percent. The first time that happened was between Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Here’s a rundown of the warning signs flashing for each campaign this week:
🔵 BIDEN
The president acted this week to stem the flow of illegal border crossings, addressing one of the top issues voters are concerned about in 2024.
However, that move angered many progressives and liberal Democrats, who don’t believe Biden adequately addressed the plight of desperate migrants seeking asylum in the U.S.
- Biden has struggled to keep his left flank close, as evidenced by the substantial “uncommitted” vote in the Democratic primaries.
- Axios reports that the Sunrise Movement, the group of young progressives that aided in crafting Biden’s climate agenda, are withholding their endorsement, at least for now.
Meanwhile, The Hill’s Niall Stanage has the latest on the politics around the Israel-Hamas war, noting that it’s “a critical moment on an issue that threatens to capsize his reelection hopes.”
There’s also the economy, and polling data piling up showing that many Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. There are widespread voter concerns about the high costs of housing, food and gasoline.
The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports that Democrats are urging Biden to appear more in touch with voter concerns on inflation.
As the president’s economic approval sags, the Biden administration is leaning into its antitrust agenda, highlighted in testimony by Attorney General Merrick Garland on Tuesday.
There’s also the issue of Biden’s age.
The Wall Street Journal is standing by a new report titled “Behind Closed Doors, Biden Shows Signs of Slipping.”
The White House and Democrats are furiously disputing the report. Several White House aides gathered Wednesday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” to push back.
Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said on X that many Democrats spent time with the Journal to share first-hand experiences about his “wisdom, experience, strength and strategic thinking.”
“Instead, the Journal ignored testimony by Democrats, focused on attacks by Republicans and printed a hit piece.”
Polls show Biden’s age is a major vulnerability as he seeks a second term, and Republicans will be seeking to highlight the issue.
🔴 TRUMP
Trump’s felony convictions have so far been a cash windfall for his campaign, as Republicans have rallied to his defense.
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On Wednesday, a Trump-aligned super PAC announced a $70 million haul in the month of May. The super PAC will put that money to use in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
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Trump has maintained a small, but meaningful lead in battleground polls, leading to some buzz that he could potentially win the election in a blowout.
But a new survey by Mainstreet Research, PolCom Lab and Florida Atlantic University found Trump faces a different potential threat.
In a head-to-head race, Trump narrowly leads Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is thrown into the mix, Biden takes the lead in both polls.
The Hill’s Hanna Trudo has the full breakdown here.
There is little polling detailing the potential political fallout for Trump after he became the first former president convicted of a crime, but Republicans got a glimmer of hope on Wednesday in a survey of Georgia.
The Quinnipiac University poll found Trump leading Biden 43 to 37 in the battleground, even though half of voters said they agreed with the guilty verdict against Trump. That survey includes Kennedy Jr. and three other third-party candidates, who combine for 16 percent support.
Like Biden, Trump also faces dissent from within his own party.
Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), who is running for Senate, will not attend the Republican National Convention amid his nasty and very personal feud with Trump World.
In the New Jersey Senate primary on Tuesday, GOP primary voters picked the establishment-backed candidate over Trump’s endorsed candidate.
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