Trump lead in Florida narrows: Survey

The gap between former President Trump and President Biden has narrowed in Florida, according to a new poll that showed the incumbent making headway in his rival’s home state.

The new poll from Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and Mainstreet Research, published Wednesday, found 43 percent of likely Florida voters supported Trump, while 37 percent backed Biden.

This represents a 6-point drop from April for Trump, when he led Biden 49 percent to 40 percent, pollsters noted.

About 10 percent chose independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 5 percent said they were undecided.

“While Trump is still in front, these numbers suggest Biden has made modest gains and kept the race competitive in the nation’s largest swing state,” said Dukhong Kim, Ph.D., an associate professor of political science at FAU.

Trump won in the Sunshine State by a somewhat similar margin in 2020, clinching more than 51 percent of the state’s vote, compared to Biden’s 48 percent.

This was a slightly higher margin than in 2016, when Trump had about 49 percent of the vote, while former Secretary of State and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had 47 percent.

Florida is a significant state in the presidential election with 30 electoral votes. Decision Desk HQ is currently predicting that Trump has a 79 percent chance of winning Florida.

The Biden reelection campaign announced in April it is aiming to flip Florida, calling the state part of Biden’s pathway to 270 electoral votes.

When it comes to demographics, the FAU/Mainstreet Research poll found Biden performs better than Trump with Black voters, garnering 68 percent of the group’s support in the Sunshine State.

The former president, however, had higher support among white voters without college degrees. Fifty-seven percent of these voters backed Trump. Forty-three percent of college-educated people who are white picked Trump in the poll.

Both Trump and Biden could face issues among young voters in Florida. The poll showed 18 percent of voters ages 18 to 49 said they are more open to third-party candidates.

The FAU/Mainstreet Research survey of 883 Florida adults was conducted Saturday and Sunday via an interactive voice response and online panel. FAU said no margin of sampling error was calculated for the full sample, but a “sample of this size would carry a margin of error” of about 3.3 percentage points.