© Greg Nash, The Hill; and Seth Wenig, Associated Press |
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Trump holds narrow lead over Biden in swing states as debate takes shape |
Former President Trump holds a narrow lead over President Biden across the battleground states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 election, according to polling out today.
The new battlegrounds survey from Emerson College and The Hill provides an early glimpse of voter attitudes about the candidates ahead of their first debate next week. The entirety of the poll was conducted after Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.
✈️ 30,000 ft. view: Arizona … Trump +4 Georgia … Trump +4 Wisconsin … Trump +3 Nevada … Trump +3 Pennsylvania … Trump +2 Michigan … Trump +1 Minnesota … Tied The race is close and all of the results fall within the poll’s margin of error.
Still, it’s bad news for Biden, who carried all seven states in 2020. If these numbers were to hold, Trump would likely win 312 Electoral College votes, easily surpassing the 270 needed to win.
🔵The problem spots for Biden: Rust Belt: -
Biden’s likeliest path to reelection is for his Blue Wall to hold across the Rust Belt, although that’s an extremely narrow path back to the White House. Biden can’t afford to lose even one of Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. If Biden triumphs again in all three states but loses in the other battlegrounds, he’d likely squeak out a 270 to 268 Electoral College victory.
Sun Belt: -
Biden won Arizona, Nevada and Georgia by the slimmest of margins in 2020, so it’s no surprise they’re in play once again. But Democrats must be vexed at Trump’s strength, particularly in Georgia, where he faces state charges on a conspiracy to overturn the election. In addition to Biden carrying Georgia, Democrats picked up two Senate seats there in the last presidential cycle.
Minnesota: -
Minnesota is a must-win state for Biden, and the fact that it’s competitive will give Democrats tremors until Election Day. No Republican has carried Minnesota since 1972, and it’s only happened five times in the past 100 hundred years. Trump has shown surprising strength in traditionally blue strongholds this cycle. The latest evidence: Biden only leads Trump by single-digits in deep blue New York.
🔴 The problem spots for Trump: Independent voters: -
Trump has a narrow lead over Biden among independents in all seven states, but his support has dropped in some states since his convictions. The most pronounced decline came in Pennsylvania, where Trump’s independent support fell by 8 points. Trump lost 5 point among independents in Arizona, and 3 points among independents in Michigan. Perhaps unsurprisingly in a race between two deeply unpopular candidates, Biden also shed some independent support, dropping 6 points in Georgia and 5 points in Nevada.
National support: -
A new Fox News national survey put Biden in the lead by 2 points. That’s a 3-point swing in Biden’s favor from the same poll last month. Trump called the poll “TRASH!” in a social media post.
Trump and Biden will have a chance to alter the dynamics of the race at the first presidential debate one week from now. -
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not qualify. All third-party candidates have been frozen out of the debates. RFK lashed out at his rivals and CNN, calling the decision “undemocratic, un-American and cowardly.”
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Trump will get the final word at the debate after winning a coin toss.
- How important is the debate for Biden? CNN’s
Van Jones has the money quote: “This is the entire election as far as I’m concerned…if Biden goes out there and messes up, it’s game over.”
Related coverage: Related viewpoints: - Vox: Biden’s ads haven’t been working so he’s trying something new.
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Slate: The future of Michigan politics depends on Lansing.
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Welcome to Evening Report! I’m Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what’s coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here. |
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Supreme Court rules on taxes, prosecutions as Washington braces for Trump-related criminal decisions
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The Supreme Court did not issue rulings on Thursday in two cases pertaining to criminal charges surrounding former President Trump. Check back with The Hill, as these could rulings come as early as Friday morning.
There was still some action at the high court… -
In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled against a woman found guilty of drug trafficking who claimed she was unknowingly carrying. Justice Neil Gorsuch scolded the majority over the ruling, saying it gives the government too much prosecutorial power.
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In a 7-2 ruling, the Supreme Court upheld a key provision from Trump’s sweeping 2017 tax law. The ruling permits Congress to levy a one-time tax on shares owned in foreign corporations. The court side-stepped more far-reaching questions about Congress’s broader taxing authority, The Hill’s Zach Schonfeld reports.
Related coverage: |
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Senate Democrats outpace Biden, raising prospect of ticket-splitting
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Some good news for Democrats running down ballot from Biden… The Emerson/Hill poll released Thursday found Senate Democrats are outperforming the president, raising the prospect that ticket-splitting could help Democrats hold their narrow majority in the Senate.
Case in point: In Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is outperforming Biden by 7 points. Rosen leads Republican challenger Sam Brown 50 to 38, while Biden trails Trump 46 to 43 in the Silver State. The Democratic candidates outperform Biden by 3 points in Minnesota and by 2 points in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Related coverage:
Updates on two contentious House primary races… Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), the chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, is hanging on to his political career by a thread. Ballots are still being counted from Tuesday’s primary election, but Good trails his GOP challenger, Army veteran John McGuire (R), by about 300 votes. Provisional and mail-in ballots are still being counted, and a recount is possible.
But that hasn’t stopped Good’s antagonists from taking a victory lap. They’re holding Good as an example of what will happen to Republicans who get on the wrong side of Trump. On the Democratic side…
Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) apologized for calling the sexual violence perpetrated by Hamas against Israeli women on Oct. 7 “propaganda” and “lies.” The progressive left is sticking with Bowman. Establishment Democrats are rallying behind his challenger, Westchester County executive George Latimer (D), who would be a strong ally for Israel in the House.
Related coverage: |
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Firestorm erupts over requiring women to sign up for military draft
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The Hill’s Alexander Bolton has an interesting scoop…
Senate Democrats added language to the annual defense bill to require women to register for the draft.
There’s a backlash to the provision among Republicans, and it could make for a tough vote for vulnerable Democrats up for reelection, such as Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.).
Army veteran Sam Brown (R-Nev.), who is running against Rosen, is already making it an issue in a new campaign ad. Brown was severely burned by an explosive device in Afghanistan.
“Look at my face. This is the high cost of war and I just found out that Jacky Rosen voted this week to make signing up for the draft mandatory for our daughters. You’ll be hearing more from me on this.” |
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Democrats push for opening pathways to Palestinian refugees
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A group of about 70 Democrats are urging the Biden administration to open pathways to Palestinian refugees seeking to escape the war in Gaza.
In a letter sent Thursday to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, the Democrats asked that Gazans be given special access to U.S. Refuges Admissions programs: “We appreciate the steps that the Biden Administration has taken to evacuate American citizens from Gaza. However, without pathways for Americans to petition for their relatives in Gaza, countless families with strong ties to our nation remain stranded in life-threatening conditions.” |
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The first presidential debate is one week away. Here’s what else is on our radar: 25 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. 60 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. 138 days until the 2024 general election.
214 days until Inauguration Day 2025. |
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- President Biden travels from Rehoboth Beach, Del., to Camp David in Maryland for debate prep.
- Vice President Harris holds a campaign call on abortion rights at 8 p.m. with activists and celebrities to mark the anniversary of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade.
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