Texas grid on track to hit record demand amid blazing heat

Searing summer temperatures are pushing the Texas grid to record levels Tuesday afternoon — with demand projected to hit an all-time high at 5 p.m. CDT.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — which oversees the state’s isolated grid — anticipates a demand of 85,510 megawatts for a brief period in the late afternoon, as triple-digit temperatures meet the rising demand from Texans returning home from work.

That’s a bit higher than the all-time record set last July of 85,508 megawatts.

The grid came within just 17 megawatts of the record on Monday amid the hottest temperatures of the year. Highs in all of the state’s major cities are above 102 degrees, which humidity and harsh ultraviolet sunlight are pushing up to a subjective temperature that can feel 10 to 20 degrees hotter.

But that harsh sunlight is also a saving grace for the Texas grid. Unlike last summer, when near-record demand pushed the grid to the brink of blackouts, Texas’s runaway solar energy construction boom has given the state an ample buffer to meet demand.

At 5 p.m., when demand is expected to be at its highest, solar production is projected to put more than 19,000 megawatts onto the grid, accounting for all of the 10,000-15,000 megawatts of spare capacity the grid is anticipated to have Tuesday afternoon.

That more than makes up for the 10,000-plus megawatts of forced outages from other renewables that ERCOT lists as being down as of Tuesday afternoon as part of forced or planned outages.

The balance of energy supply and demand will likely get tighter, however, around nightfall, as the amount of power being generated through solar drops off while temperatures across the state hover in the triple digits. At 8 p.m., the grid is projected to have just 500 megawatts in excess committed reserves, which are reserves that are spoken for and projected to stay online.

But the grid will also have about 3,000 more megawatts of available capacity in reserve — generation resources that were scheduled to turn off but can be kept running in an emergency.

If the grid makes it through the straits of Tuesday night, smooth sailing is forecast for the rest of the week: Despite the protracted heat wave, the grid is projected to run with 10,000-20,000 megawatts of spare capacity until cooler temperatures come this weekend.