Harris, Trump locked in tight race in 7 swing states: Poll

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are locked in a tight race across seven battleground states as the race for the White House enters the home stretch, according to polling released Thursday. 

The new survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill found Harris edging out Trump in Georgia (49 percent to 48 percent), Michigan (50 percent to 47 percent) and Nevada (49 percent to 48 percent). 

Meanwhile, the polling shows Trump slightly ahead in Arizona (50 percent to 47 percent), North Carolina (49 percent to 48 percent) and Wisconsin (49 percent to 48 percent). 

In Pennsylvania, the two are tied at 48 percent each.  

In all cases, the poll numbers fall within the margin of error, meaning the race is essentially tied in each of the swing states.

“The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues to be tight, within each state’s margin of error,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.

Harris leads Trump among independent voters in six out of the seven states polled. The one exception is Nevada, where Trump leads Harris among independents.   

Trump does slightly better with female voters in Arizona. But Harris performs better than the former president with women in the other six battleground states. Harris also fares better with voters under 30 years old in every swing state. 

Trump, meanwhile, performs better across the seven states with male voters. 

“There is also a stark gender divide, similar to that of 2020,” Kimball said. “In six of the seven swing states, Harris leads Trump among women, however, in Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge on Harris among women voters, a group that broke for Biden by about three points in 2020 according to exit polling.” 

The polling shows how Democrats’ fortunes have rapidly changed more than a month since President Biden withdrew from the presidential race. Democrats fretted about their viability in states like Michigan with Biden at the top, but with Harris as the nominee those states appear more competitive again.  

Harris is riding a wave of momentum following the Democratic National Convention, which was held last week in Chicago, and observers are watching closely to see if that translates to better poll numbers for her. But the Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey suggests that even with the newfound energy at the top of the Democratic ticket, the race for the White House is still a nailbiter.

An aggregate of national surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ shows Harris leading Trump roughly 50 percent to 45 percent.  

The new polling also reinforced the strength of downballot Democrats, a trend seen in previous surveys.

In Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all of which are holding competitive Senate races this year — the Democratic Senate candidates are leading their GOP rivals.

In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake 49 percent to 42 percent. In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin is leading Republican Mike Rogers 47 to 41 percent. In Nevada, incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen is ahead of GOP rival Sam Brown, 50 to 40 percent. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey leads David McCormick 48 to 44 percent. And in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin edges out Eric Hovde, 49 to 48 percent.

Meanwhile, in the North Carolina gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Stein leads GOP Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, 47 to 41 percent.

The polling from Emerson College Polling and The Hill was conducted Aug. 26-28. In Arizona, 720 likely voters were polled with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. In Michigan and Georgia, 800 likely voters were polled in each state, with a margin of error for each of 3.4 percentage points. In Pennsylvania, 950 likely voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. In Nevada, 1,168 likely voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points; 775 likely voters were polled in North Carolina with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. In Wisconsin, 850 likely voters were polled, with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.