Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Montana Senate race to favor Republican 

Election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the Montana Senate race to favor Republican challenger Tim Sheehy over incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester following recent polling showing the businessman leading by 6 points.

Sabato’s moved the Senate race from a “toss-up” to “leans Republican.” The handicapper noted in its decision that it was already close to making the change when it published its Senate update Thursday, but it “wanted to see a little more information before” marking Tester, a three-term senator, as “an underdog.”

More information came in later Thursday when an AARP-commissioned poll showed Sheehy at 51 percent support among likely voters compared to Tester’s 45 percent. When Libertarian and Green Party candidates were added, Sheehy — a former Navy SEAL — led the senator by 8 points, or 49 percent to 41 percent.

“These are solid leads for Sheehy, whether in the head-to-head or the multi-party race, and they are similar to some other polling that has been released over the past few months,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, wrote in a Friday update. 

“Just one recent poll we are aware of, from Scott Rasmussen’s RMG Research, has had Tester ahead recently, 49%-44%,” he continued. “Every other recent one has had Sheehy leading—the smallest lead was 2 points in the Emerson College poll we cited Thursday, and a few others had Sheehy leading by margins similar to what the AARP poll suggested.”

“In other words, the AARP poll generally reinforced some of the other polling that’s already out there,” Kondik added.

He also wrote that Montana, a red-leaning state, is hard to poll, but that “history and recent trends are just not on Tester’s side.”

But, according to the editor, if the Senate Democrat loses in the Treasure State, his party will have no path to retain the upper chamber’s majority except if the Democratic Party “can somehow put a currently Republican-held seat in play.” 

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling index also shows Sheehy ahead by more than 4 points in the race, leading Tester with 49.8 percent to 45.4 percent support.

The Hill has reached out to Tester’s campaign for comment.