NRSC: Hogan, Alsobrooks tied in Maryland Senate race

Senate Republican sources say polling shows former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are tied in the Maryland Senate race, a surprise result given Maryland’s reputation as a liberal bastion.

Two sources familiar with a presentation of polling data given to Republican senators at a special meeting Tuesday at the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) headquarters say Hogan, a popular former governor, and Alsobrooks, a well-regarded local official, are in a dead heat.

The polling data presented to GOP senators Tuesday included another piece of good news: Republican challenger Tim Sheehy is leading incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana by 4 points, according to two sources familiar with the meeting.

And the NRSC has West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice leading his little-known Democratic opponent, Glenn Elliott, by 34 points.

If Sheehy hangs onto his narrow lead over Tester and Justice wins the seat of retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.), Republicans would take back the Senate majority in 2025 unless Democrats can somehow manage to knock off either Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in Texas or Sen. Rick Scott (R) in Florida.

Democrats now control a 51-seat Senate majority. 

The NRSC’s presentation also showed Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) with a 2-point lead over businessman Bernie Moreno, the Republican challenger.

Senate Republican strategists are confidant Moreno will close the gap over the next two months as he gains more name recognition through advertising.

NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) says he expects former President Trump to carry Ohio by 10 points in November, which would be a tough margin at the top of the ticket for Brown to overcome in the Senate race.

“Bernie Moreno is running a great race. Ohio is likely looking to be won by Trump by about 10 points, which is consistent with past presidential races,” Daines told reporters. “That puts Bernie in a pretty strong position to win. We’re seeing Ohio is less prone to ticket splitting and will be probably more of a red jersey, blue jersey outcome in November. And that bodes well for Bernie Moreno.”

The presentation that GOP senators saw at the NRSC headquarters Tuesday showed Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leading Republican candidate Kari Lake by 4 points in the Arizona Senate race and Trump leading Vice President Harris by 1 point in Arizona.