©  AP Photo/Evan Vucci/Matt Rourke

AN AVALANCHE of new polling data underscores the volatility of the 2024 presidential race and the important role every swing state will play in determining the electoral outcome in November. 

In a series of polls released this week, the race for the White House race appears essentially deadlocked, with all seven battleground states within reach for either candidate.

The national and state-level data has given both Vice President Harris and former President Trump reason for optimism, while leaving election analysts flummoxed. 

Surveys from top-rated pollsters at The New York Times and Siena College illustrate the conflicting signals nationally and in battleground states.

Their national survey found the race tied — a potentially worrying sign for Democrats given Trump’s history of outperforming polls and the GOP’s recent advantage in the Electoral College.

However, the Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll found Harris with a 4-point lead in battleground Pennsylvania, which has the potential to play a decisive role in the election outcome.

Illustrating just how close the race is nationally, Republicans are pushing for Nebraska to change its electoral system to help Trump win a single extra Electoral College vote from an Omaha-area district.

So how should we read the new polling?

• The GOP’s Electoral College advantage can be understood through the lens of the 2020 election. Biden won the national popular vote by about 4.5 points, but he only squeaked by Trump by thousands of votes in the swing states. The swing states have generally voted a few points to the right of the national popular vote in recent elections.
  
  
• Several recent polls have found Trump and Harris running neck and neck nationally, even while Harris has opened up a small lead over Trump in Pennsylvania. The Keystone State could be the tipping point state for both campaigns.
  
  
• New York Times election analyst Nate Cohn wrote about how their latest polling breaks with conventional wisdom: “A clear lead for Ms. Harris in Pennsylvania, but a tie nationwide? This is unexpected. Four years ago, President Biden won the national vote by 4.5 percentage points, but won Pennsylvania by just 1.2 points. Similarly, our poll averages have shown Ms. Harris doing better nationwide than in Pennsylvania. This poll is nearly the opposite.”
  
  
• Cohn said he’s looking to see if this is part of a new trend of Trump running stronger nationally but Harris leading in the northern battlegrounds that will determine the outcome. If the trend is confirmed, “it would suggest that Mr. Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College, relative to the popular vote, has declined significantly since 2020.”

The Hill’s Evening Report spoke with Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, who summed it up: “It’s a close and volatile race and it’s been very difficult to get a bead on it.”

A roundup of the latest surveys:

• The Washington Post finds Harris leading by 1 point nationally. Harris leads by 2 points nationally in a Fox News survey.
  
  
• New polls from Emerson College and The Hill find Trump leading in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Harris leads in Michigan and North Carolina, while Nevada is tied. It would be an Election Day surprise if Trump won two “Blue Wall” states while Harris carried North Carolina, but any combination seems possible at the moment.
  
  
• The latest Marist survey finds Harris leading by 5 points in Michigan and by 1 point in Wisconsin. The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania.
  
  
• In Nate Silver’s polling aggregation, Harris leads by 1.2 points in Pennsylvania. The race there was effectively tied last week, but several new surveys have found Harris opening up a lead of between 3 and 5 points in the Keystone State.
  
  
• Overall, Silver’s model gives Trump a 51 percent chance to win the election — a coin flip. “People probably need to be realistic about the possibility that the election will remain in toss-up range straight thru to Nov. 5.,” Silver said on X.

Here are the averages according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ as we head into the final seven weeks until Election Day. Every swing-state is within the margin of error:

National: Harris +3.7%

AZ: Trump +0.1%

GA: Trump +0.5%

MI: Harris +1.2%

NC: Trump +0.5%

NV: Harris +1.2%

PA: Harris +1.1%

WI: Harris +2.0

Read more:

• Trump campaign goes on offense over Iran effort to share hacked materials.
• Trump’s high-profile surrogates try to broaden appeal among women.
• Most voters anxious about economy, political violence.
• Democrats call on Harris to ramp up media profile.
• ‘Uncommitted’ leaders say they won’t endorse Harris.

Welcome to Evening Report! I’m Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what’s coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here.

• North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) says he’s staying in the gubernatorial race following speculation that he might drop out in response to an explosive CNN report.
  
  
• The Middle East is bracing for Hezbollah’s response to the pager and radio attacks in Lebanon. The Wall Street Journal details how the covert attacks against Hezbollah unfolded across Lebanon’s streets and malls.
  
  

• The Environmental Protection Agency’s internal watchdog found that top agency officials retaliated against three staffers for expressing different scientific opinions.

   

• The U.S. has the worst health care system among wealthy nations, a new survey finds.

©  Greg Nash

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Shcumer (D-N.Y.) will move on a bipartisan government funding bill after GOP infighting sank the House bill.

Government funding bills are supposed to originate in the House, but Speaker Mike Johnson’s six-month continuing resolution (CR) attached to a voter security measure failed Wednesday after 14 Republicans voted against it.

The government faces a Sept. 30 deadline to avert a shutdown.

• Former President Trump has urged Republicans to shut the government down if Congress cannot pass a funding bill that includes a law requiring voters show proof-of-citizenship when registering to vote.
  
  
• The election security add-on is a nonstarter in the Democratic-controlled Senate. It’s also a non-starter for House Democrats.

In a speech on Thursday, Schumer announced he’d file cloture on a legislative vehicle aimed at preventing a “Trump shutdown.”

“Both sides are going to spend the next few days trying to figure out the best path remaining for keeping the government open,” Schumer said.

• Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has warned that Republicans will be blamed for a government shutdown.
  
  
• Republicans are fighting to hold a narrow majority in House and believe they can win a narrow majority in the Senate, but many in the GOP worry a shutdown could have negative ramifications for the party up and down the ballot this close to an election.
  
  
• GOP senators are urging Johnson to vote on a clean CR funding the government for three months, effectively kicking the issue past the election for the lame-duck Congress.
  
  
• Johnson has not indicated what he’ll do as a plan B.

The Hill’s Alexander Bolton has the full story here.

Perspectives:

• The Hill: The House stumbles toward another shutdown, another Trump loss.

Read more:

• House GOP torpedoes Johnson spending bill.
• These 3 Dems, 14 Republicans crossed aisle on funding bill vote.
• Trump, Harris give lawmakers whiplash with costly proposals.
• House, Senate Democrats press leadership to quickly extend ObamaCare subsidies.

©  AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson

The Secret Service told members of the bipartisan task force investigating the July 13 assassination attempt against former President Trump that it made adjustments to its security efforts that may have helped foil a potential second attempt on Trump’s life.

Rep. Jason Crow (Colo.), the top Democrat on the bipartisan task force, told Politico:

“It’s our understanding that after July 13 that President Biden ordered the Secret Service to provide the same level of security to both Vice President [Kamala] Harris and to former President Trump that would be a presidential level security — commensurate with what the president would receive — and that that security is being provided.”

Elsewhere on Capitol Hill, lawmakers are pointing fingers.

Republicans are blaming Democratic rhetoric for the two assassination attempts against Trump. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), who was badly wounded in a shooting by a left-wing gunman in 2017, said:

“There is very specific rhetoric we can now point to that we know is triggering some of these people who are unhinged, who take it the wrong way, and want to carry out what is being sent to them by Democrats talking about this.” 

Democrats are furious over the allegations, and blame Trump for turning up the temperature.

“If they want to go down that road, then you could blame Trump – or you could blame Republicans – for a lot of the bad things that have happened in this country based on what they’ve said.” – Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.)

There are growing concerns on Capitol Hill that political violence will spread.

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) says she’s received specific threats to her safety.

“It doesn’t feel safe right now to be in politics, and I really want to emphasize that we’re at a point in American history where you have people afraid to come to work,” Luna said in an interview with host Chris Cuomo.

A group of bipartisan lawmakers in the House are preparing a Constitutional amendment that would allow for members to be replaced quickly in the case of a mass-casualty event.

“We’ve seen a 300 percent increase in threats against members over the last seven years, according to the Capitol Police,” Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.) told The Washington Post. “In an environment where we have seen a growing tendency toward political violence, imagine — horrifically — a baseball practice where someone has bad intentions and better aim. You can literally flip a majority for three to four months. Which I think is a frightening incentive for political violence.”

Perspectives:

• The Free Press: Stop blaming political violence on political rhetoric.

Read more:

• Trump suspect’s Ukraine advocacy draws scrutiny and Russian spin.

• Nebraska Republicans are pressuring state officials to change to a winner-take-all system. Currently, Nebraska splits its five Electoral College votes. Four of the five reliably go for Republicans, but the “blue dot” district that covers the Omaha-Council Bluffs metropolitan area is in play for Democrats. That could matter in a close race. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) visited Lincoln this week as part of the push. 
  
  
• Voters in a half-dozen states are weighing changes to the primary process amid concerns over political polarization. Organizers are pushing to do away with traditional party contests in favor of open, all-candidate primaries. 
  
  
• Democrats are bullish on flipping the New Hampshire’s governor’s mansion.
  
  
• Montana’s Supreme Court ruled that the Green Party Senate candidate will remain on the ballot.
  
  
• A Newark official won the special election to fill late New Jersey Rep. Payne’s seat.

“There are too many election lawyers,” by David Schultz for The Hill.

“Paging Iran,” by Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet for The Hill.

“Risky banks are regulators’s fault,” by the Editorial Board at Bloomberg.

“Why the Fed opted for a big rate cut,” by Colby Smith for The Financial Times.

11 days until government funding runs out.

12 days until the vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz.

47 days until the 2024 general election.

123 days until Inauguration Day 2025.

Thursday

• President Biden delivers remarks at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute 47th Annual Awards Gala at 8:45 p.m. EDT.

• Harris is in Farmington Hills, Mich., where she’ll participates in a virtual campaign event with Oprah Winfrey and other guests.
• Trump addresses the “Fighting Anti-Semitism in America” event.

Friday

• Harris campaigns in Wisconsin.