Campaign Report
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What to know about the Vance-Walz debate |
The vice-presidential debate next week will see Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance (R) square off at a crucial moment for both campaigns in a neck and neck race for the White House. |
© AP Photo/Nell Redmond/Morry Gash |
VP debates are often considered an undercard to the presidential showdowns, but Vance and Walz will take the stage amid sky-high stakes and highly competitive polling, as early voting is already underway in a handful of states.
The Hill/Decision Desk HQ aggregate polling has Vice President Harris up roughly 4 points over former President Trump nationally, and they’re separated by razor-thin margins in key battlegrounds.
Observers think a strong performance from Vance could help the Trump campaign stay on track amid poor favorability figures and recent controversy over amplifying a false claim about Haitian migrants. And on the other side of the aisle, Walz is tasked with helping pitch Harris’s fast-tracked bid to voters in the middle as he parries criticism from the right over how he’s represented his military record and his family’s infertility struggles.
The debate comes just a few weeks after Harris and Trump sparred in their first debate-stage showdown earlier this month. Polling suggests that debate didn’t really tip the scales, with Harris’s edge only a fraction of a percentage point up from where it was just before the showdown. But while a major flub or knockout from either of the vice-presidential contenders on Tuesday might not move the needle much, even a small nudge could make a big difference in such a tight race.
Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley said on MSNBC this week that the Oct.1 program could be “the most important vice-presidential debate” in U.S. history, and “may be the last chance Trump has if somehow Vance can score points and get an edge out of that.” Read more about how the debate could potentially change the game. The debate is slated for Oct. 1 in New York City, hosted by CBS News and moderated by “CBS Evening News” anchor Norah O’Donnell and “Face the Nation” host Margaret Brennan.
It’s unlikely that Vance and Walz would debate a second time, meaning Tuesday night could mark the last debate in this cycle’s presidential race. Harris was quick to call for a rematch, but Trump has resisted pressure. Read more from The Hill’s Alex Gangitano and Julia Manchester. |
Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, I’m Julia Mueller. Each week we track the key stories you need to know to stay ahead of the 2024 election and who will set the agenda in Washington. |
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Key election stories and other recent campaign coverage: |
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North Carolina’s Board of Elections has removed 747,000 people from its list of registered voters within the last 20 months, officials announced on Thursday in a press release. The state board of elections in the release said the majority of those stripped from the rolls were deemed ineligible to be registered because they had moved within the state and did not register their new address, or because they did not participate … |
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A new North Carolina survey found Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein has a double-digit lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in the state’s governor’s race. The survey was conducted following an explosive report from CNN that alleged Robinson made many offensive statements on a porn site more than 10 years ago, calling himself a “black NAZI,” among other comments. The Marist poll finds Stein leading with 54 percent … |
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Americans are placing less value on the First Amendment than they did four years ago, according to a new survey. A Freedom Forum report showed 58 percent of people say they would approve the First Amendment today, a 4-point drop from 2020. Despite the decrease in importance, respondents said the right to free speech will influence their vote this fall. More than half of Americans in the Northeast said the First Amendment is … |
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Upcoming news themes and events we’re watching: |
- 5 days until the vice-presidential debate
- 40 days until the 2024 general election
- 123 days until Inauguration Day 2025
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‘The Singing Trump’ heads to Louisiana |
Louisiana’s Lieutenant Governor, Republican Billy Nungesser, is having an unusual fundraiser this month called “Make America Laugh Again – The Singing Trump Show.”
The “Singing Trump,” who is headlining the show, previously appeared on NBC’s “America’s Got Talent!” Tickets will set attendees back at least $100.
Nungesser, who first took office in 2016 and won reelection in a landslide last year, is billing the event held outside New Orleans as “a laughter-packed evening featuring the one and only Singing Trump, who will have you rolling in your seats.” “This in-person event promises to bring joy and humor back into your life,” Nungesser’s team writes in the event description.
The “Singing Trump,” also known as former soap opera star Jeff Trachta, finished fourth on the reality competition variety show in 2017. —Liz Crisp |
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Branch out with a different read from The Hill: |
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Vice President Harris is holding her edge over former President Trump in Michigan and the race remains tight in Pennsylvania, according to a new poll from UMass Lowell and YouGov. In Michigan, the poll found Harris leading Trump 48 percent to 43 percent overall, though the former president had the edge with independents, winning 36 percent support compared to Harris’s 29 percent. Most Michigan voters are locked in on their … |
Democratic candidate Angela Alsobrooks is leading former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, her Republican opponent, by double digits in a new poll in the state’s hotly contested Senate race. The poll, from The Washington Post and the University of Maryland, found 51 percent of likely voters in the Old Line State backing Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County executive, and 40 percent backing Hogan. Vice President Harris … |
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Local and state headlines regarding campaigns and elections: |
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Free speech or political intimidation? A jury says this Trump Train organizer crossed the line. (Texas Tribune)
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Why aren’t Democrats spending money on the Florida Senate race? (Tampa Bay Times)
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Is Arizona a swing state in the 2024 presidential election? Here’s what to know (Arizona Republic)
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Election news we’ve flagged from other outlets: |
- One day at a time, Vance’s mother deals with her past and his future (The Washington Post)
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Doug Emhoff is all over the campaign trail. Melania Trump is not. (The New York Times)
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‘A f— you endorsement’: How Trump won over a key Muslim mayor in Michigan (Semafor)
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Key stories on The Hill right now: |
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A group of House Republicans is making a rare move that would force a vote on a bill to reform aspects of Social Security, stirring unrest in the conference. The bill at the heart of the push, also dubbed the Social Security Fairness Act, seeks to do away with the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension … Read more
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A New York appeals court on Thursday is considering former President Trump’s appeal of a multimillion-dollar judgment against him and his business empire. The five-judge panel will hear arguments in Trump’s appeal of the $464 million, plus interest, judgment against him and top Trump Organization executives in a civil fraud case … Read more |
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Opinions related to campaigns and elections submitted to The Hill: |
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You’re all caught up. See you next time! |
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