It’s Tuesday — Happy October! 🎃👻 And happy 100th birthday to former President Carter! You don’t look a day past 80!

• Tonight’s the big Vance-Walz debate. Mics won’t be muted, so buckle in.
• Trump says he’ll add live commentary throughout the debate tonight. I repeat, buckle in.
• Tens of thousands of dockworkers are striking, which could throw a wrench into the preelection economy.
• Harris and Trump are stalled in a near tie.
• Helene rescue efforts are highlighting the devastation in North Carolina. Biden said he’ll visit later this week.

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@digital-staging.thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  

©  AP

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) are meeting tonight for their only debate. Dun, dun, dunnn.

Their biggest goal: Do no damage and maybe score some political points when they can. Vance is under pressure to make up for former President Trump’s weak debate performance.

Meanwhile, Walz has already set his own expectations low. He recently pointed out that Vance is a “Yale law guy” while he’s a “public school teacher.” That was certainly meant to lower the bar for his night. But Jason Miller, a top Trump campaign official, argued to CNN’s Kasie Hunt that he believes Walz has the advantage. “Walz is very good in debates,” Miller said, arguing “he’s been a politician for nearly 20 years.”

Tidbit about Vance’s debate prep: Vance said in a Teamsters call this morning that he doesn’t think he needs to prepare much. “We have well-developed views on public policy so we don’t have to prepare that much,” Vance told the Teamsters. “We feel a lot more confident, and frankly, you don’t have to prepare if you don’t have to hide what you say.” 👀We shall see!

Here are the details for tonight:

What time?: 9–10:30 p.m. EDT with two commercial breaks 

How to watch: It will air on CBS News. If you don’t have cable, it will also stream on CBSNews.com and YouTube. 💻 Debate livestream

Who is moderating?: CBS News’s Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan

Where is it happening?: At the CBS Broadcast Center in New York City

Will there be a live studio audience?: No

Will the microphones be muted?: No, the microphones will stay on, but CBS News reserves the right to turn off the mic if they see fit.

More from the debate host, CBS News

Trump announced that he will do a “personal play by play” during tonight’s debate, providing live commentary.

“I will be doing a personal PLAY BY PLAY of the Debate tomorrow between the Brilliant J.D. Vance and the Highly Inarticulate ‘Tampon’ Tim Walz,” he posted on Truth Social.

Happy October. Election Day is five weeks from today(!) That means we’ve also entered the critical October stretch of the campaign season. Any number of wild cards can alter the current state of the race between Vice President Harris and former President Trump.

What I mean by ‘wild cards’: Weather events, leaked footage and major news events can all change the status quo of the campaign.

🕰️ For example: Remember when the “Access Hollywood” tape leaked in October 2016, in which Trump was heard bragging about groping women? And the questions around Hunter Biden’s laptop swirling in October 2020? And former President Obama meeting with then-Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.) in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy? These are just a few of the recent “October surprises.”

Without one of these October surprises, tonight’s vice presidential debate could be the last major event before the election.

A possible factor: Tens of thousands of port workers are striking, freezing shipping on the East Coast. The White House unsuccessfully tried to avert the strike, and it could have implications for the economy.

This year has the potential to significantly swing things: Harris and Trump are in a dead heat. Polls show them in a near tie in the battleground states that will likely determine control of the White House. Last month’s debate didn’t move the needle at all, despite Harris having a much stronger performance — and Trump even sharing unfounded claims that Haitian immigrants are eating their neighbors’ pets.

• ‘The Coming Trump Revenge Tour’🐍: Politico
• ‘Trump Amps Up Rhetoric to Keep Immigration at Center of Election’: The Wall Street Journal
• ‘Early Voting Has Started. Here’s What to Watch.’: The New York Times

©  AP

The death toll from Hurricane Helene has risen to at least 130 after catastrophic flooding, high winds and landslides left parts of the Southeast obliterated. As many as 600 people are still unaccounted for, according to the White House.

President Biden says he’ll visit western North Carolina later this week — and called on Congress to pass supplemental funding to help the relief efforts. Georgia lawmakers are asking the White House for a disaster declaration in the state. This would free up federal disaster funding.

NEW: Late this morning, the White House daily schedule added an emergency Helene briefing for Biden from the Roosevelt Room.

Trump made an unforced error: Trump visited Georgia yesterday where he slammed Biden’s response — and falsely claimed that Biden and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) have not spoken. Well, Biden confirmed the two spoke Sunday and Kemp praised Biden’s response.

💡 What could this mean politically?: Time will tell. The next few weeks will be crucial as relief and recovery efforts are underway. The Bush administration was criticized for its response to Hurricane Katrina, so this will determine how the Biden administration is viewed. There’s a lot of attention and pressure directed at the Federal Emergency Management Agency. There’s added pressure because we’re only five weeks away from the election. Republicans will be watching closely, though Trump making false claims that can easily be proven will only help the Biden administration.

Keep in mind: Helene scrambled the politics of three battlegrounds: North Carolina, Georgia and Florida.

How can you help the victims?: Time put together a list of charities who are helping the victims of the storm.

Why did Asheville get hit so hard?: Asheville hasn’t experienced flooding like this since 1916. Geography didn’t help — it’s basically at the bottom of a bowl of mountains and attracts floodwaters from higher elevations. It’s also nestled between two rivers. NewsNation’s Steph Whiteside explains the circumstances

Why was North Carolina caught off guard?: The Washington Post talked with experts who said that “treacherous terrain and isolated geography would have made an exodus dangerous and logistically challenging.”

‘North Carolina in Crisis Mode as Helene Rescues Continue’: The Wall Street Journal

“Iran is preparing to fire ballistic missiles at Israel, according to a senior White House official, who said the attack could be launched ‘imminently,’” reports The Hill’s Brad Dress.

Some context: “The news comes just hours after Israel announced it had begun raids into southern Lebanon to take out military capabilities of the Iranian-backed militia group Hezbollah. Hezbollah, a star proxy group for Iran, has been severely crippled by the nearly yearlong cross-border conflict it has carried out against Israeli forces in a fight tied to the ongoing war in Gaza. Most of Hezbollah’s command structure has been eliminated.”

🎃 Celebrate: Today is National Pumpkin Spice Day!

🥵 Watch out for the heat: Parts of Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona will reach dangerously high temperatures today. 🗺️ Today’s heat map

🎭 Good, we need more of this energy: The satirical news outlet The Onion hired a former MSNBC anchor and is relaunching videos for the Onion News Network. (The Washington Post)

The House and Senate are out. President Biden and Vice President Harris are in Washington. (all times Eastern)

• 1:15 p.m.: Biden holds a call with Jewish rabbis ahead of the high holidays.
• 1:30 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre briefs reporters. 💻 Livestream
• 2:30 p.m.: Former President Trump campaigns in Waunakee, Wis. 💻 Livestream
• 4:40 p.m.: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) delivers remarks at the New York Stock Exchange. 💻 Livestream
• 6 p.m.: Trump campaigns in Milwaukee. 🧀 Livestream
• 9 p.m.: The CBS News vice presidential debate.

Because you made it this far, here’s a puppy peace offering.