Glenn Youngkin and the art of the flip: A guide to winning in tough areas

It’s often said that imitation is the highest form of flattery. Ancient Rome copied the Classical Greeks. Julius Caesar copied Alexander the Great. The French Revolution’s Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen copied America’s Declaration of Independence.  

In American politics today, you’d be forgiven for thinking that Republicans and Democrats are so ideologically far apart that they wouldn’t want to copy anything from the opposing party whatsoever. The two parties seem incapable of even acknowledging that the other side might have a decent idea or two. 

But that’s not entirely true. Let’s think back to the rainy November night in 2021 when Glenn Youngkin shocked Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe and won Virginia’s governorship. 

Youngkin used a unique strategy to focus on independent swing voters in the suburbs rather than the devout MAGA base. 

His victory was and is still massive. Prior to his election, no Republican had won statewide in Virginia in a dozen years. Rather than doubling down on partisan warfare, Youngkin introduced himself to voters as someone who had come from modest means, who ended up washing dishes after his father lost his job. What’s more, he effectively communicated how his subsequent successful business career could translate to a fruitful governing career.

Ever since Barack Obama won the Commonwealth in 2008, Virginia hasn’t looked back. The state that had been solidly red as recently as 2004 became solidly blue for the last several election cycles, largely due to population growth in the Washington, D.C. metro area.

But Youngkin’s electoral success proved to be a perfectly drawn play for flipping a contested state or winning in a tough “purple” area. He dropped the overt partisanship and focused on the issues that mattered to the voters. It didn’t matter what the GOP and Donald Trump were doing; Youngkin was dead set on presenting himself as fiscally responsible and a common-sense solution to political dysfunction. 

Let me be clear: This messaging and strategy wouldn’t necessarily work in a deep red state like Alabama or Wyoming. But in the light-blue state of Virginia, this tone was pitch-perfect. 

Although it was a Republican who cracked the code on how to flip a state, Democrats are now employing this strategy as well — for example, in the purple states of Nevada and Michigan. Both Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) are running effective ads that downplay their partisan allegiances to the Democrats and instead paint them as everyday Americans willing to put the issues first before partisanship. 

Recently, there have been some key developments in Kamala Harris’s campaign staffing. Following President Biden’s replacement at the top of the ticket, Harris made major personnel additions to her staff, bringing a slew of high-profile Obama veterans into senior advisory roles. These additions to her campaign are game changers as they have firsthand experience crafting a winning message. 

Remember Barack Obama’s rapid accession to the presidency in 2008? At that time, 66 percent of those under age 30 voted for Obama, making the disparity between young voters and other age groups larger than in any presidential election since exit polling began in 1972. 

Those millennial voters who were part of Obama’s coalition are now in their 30s and 40s and living in the suburbs. This is ground zero for elections today, and they are a major reason Youngkin won Virginia in 2021. 

This demographic is more to the right on fiscal issues, but they’re not exactly ready to identify as Republicans because of the right’s perceived toxicity on issues like abortion.  

The suburban demographic is exactly who Youngkin was able to pick up en route to his electoral victory in 2021. That’s who Rosen and Scholten are targeting in their purple states. Any electoral strategy today must resonate with these voters. But so far, only Democrats seem willing to adjust their language and messaging to reach these people. 

Republicans have a shining example of how to carry these tough purple districts that ultimately decide the outcome of elections these days. They should drop the culture wars and focus on key issues like affordability. But so far, it doesn’t seem they’re willing to do this. 

Polling conducted by the Independent Center last November discovered that among political independents, a candidate who works with both sides of the aisle had a 72 percent favorability rating. What’s more, a candidate not affiliated with the Republican or Democrat parties received a 63 percent favorability rating. 

Do you want to know how to flip a state or win in a purple area? Take a page from the Youngkin playbook and leave overt partisanship behind in favor of common sense. The winners of this election will be the ones who follow this model. 

Adam Brandon is a contributor to the Independent Center.