Debate performance gives Vance 2028 White House boost

Sen. JD Vance’s (R-Ohio) debate performance is giving him a shot in the arm to become a leading 2028 presidential contender no matter what happens in November between former President Trump and Vice President Harris. 

The impact of vice presidential debates on election outcomes is widely considered negligible. But the significance of Tuesday’s debate between Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) could be felt more acutely years from now, after the Ohio Republican received widespread plaudits from the right for his performance.

“This is exactly what he needed to do for his own political future. He’ll certainly be happy with the short-term implications to the extent those matter, but the long-term implications are real,” one Senate GOP aide said.

“People have kind of been viewing him as a drag on the ticket. There was resentment among a large amount of the party’s factions just because a lot of people were opposed to him being picked in the first place. They felt like they were being proven right,” the aide continued. “This really resets a lot of that for him, and now people have a very good feeling about him and it buys him a tremendous amount of goodwill, but it also just puts him in a place of real strength.”

Trump can only serve one more term in office and has said he will not run in 2028, when he will be 82. That only put more focus on his choice of a running mate, as his allies looked for a MAGA heir apparent.

But Vance, who had been considered a rising star in the party, has had a largely uneven stretch as Trump’s running mate ever since the 40-year-old was rolled out as the choice during the Republican National Convention, having come under heavy criticism over comments past and present. 

Those included his recent decision to push false claims that Haitian migrants are eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, and a 2021 remark attacking some women, including Harris, as “childless cat ladies” who “don’t really have a direct stake” in the future of the country.

On Tuesday, however, Vance flipped the script and offered Republicans a reminder of why he was chosen as a potential standard-bearer for the MAGA movement. 

According to multiple polls, Vance was considered the slight winner. He also saw his favorability ratings draw close to even among those who watched the debate after entering underwater by a double-digit margin.

“A lot of people, even the ones that probably don’t agree with him on a lot of issues, they can see a future commander in chief on the debate stage now,” the Senate GOP aide said.

“From the JD Vance, ‘how does he come off as a person’ perspective — that bar was still super low for him, because all the stories that people see about him is, ‘This is not a good guy. He’s weird. He’s abnormal. He believes crazy things. This is a boogeyman,’” the aide added. “On stage, I think they saw something completely different. … I think there’s a big gap between what people had in their minds, perception-wise, versus what they got on stage, and I think that has a significant impact when it’s that kind of surprise factor.”

His performance Tuesday was widely expected by his Senate GOP colleagues, many of whom have praised him as smart, articulate and well-prepared, particularly in a debate setting. Sen. John Thune (S.D.), one of the leading contenders to become Senate GOP leader next year, told reporters last week that he was encouraged Vance was consistently doing media interviews and talking frequently with reporters on the campaign trail. 

Debates were also an area where he separated himself during the Ohio GOP primary in 2022, impressing Trump in the process. 

His debate performance could prove especially crucial with the key constituency of Republican donors, especially those who disagree with him on key economic and foreign policy issues, including support for Ukraine. The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia was not discussed during Tuesday’s affair.

“It redefined him to the money guys,” one GOP operative said. “He came across as a serious guy who won a VP debate, and some of the money guys who rolled their eyes at him now think, ‘Hey, this guy has some game.’”

“He came away a lot more substantive than many of the donors had realized. … Before last night, could you have envisioned JD Vance on a stage with Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin? Eh, maybe,” the operative continued. “After last night, it’s clear he belongs. … A lot of those guys don’t want to see JD on that stage.”

Vance appeared before a number of top Republican donors, including some who have yet to commit financial support for the former president, the night before the debate. 

Will Martin, a Vance spokesperson, told The Hill that the senator’s focus remains squarely on the final five weeks of campaigning for the top of the ticket.

“The only thing Senator Vance is thinking about is making sure we put President Donald J. Trump back in the White House. We have less than 35 days left in this election and there is absolutely nothing that will distract us from that goal,” Martin said in a statement. “If we come up short this November, what happens in 2028 won’t matter because this country will be beyond saving.”

Despite the strong night, Vance’s performance was by no means perfect. Potentially the most memorable moment occurred when Vance declined to answer whether Trump lost the 2020 contest to President Biden, declaring he was “focused on the future.” 

But Vance got a major show of support from perhaps his most important audience in the aftermath of his battle with Walz — Trump said in an interview that the performance reminded him why he chose him in the first place. 

“It just reconfirmed my choice,” he said.