House incumbents locked in tight races in two New York swing districts: Poll

Two New York House incumbents are locked in tight races in their swing districts that could help decide which party controls the lower chamber next year, according to a new poll. 

The survey from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill shows GOP Rep. Mike Lawler leading his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones, 45 percent to 44 percent for the seat representing New York’s 17th Congressional District. 

Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan leads Republican Alison Esposito 48 percent to 43 percent for the seat representing the state’s 18th Congressional District. 

In the 17th District, Lawler has a slight advantage over Jones in favorability rating, with 47 percent viewing him positively and 40 percent viewing him negatively. Jones is even at 40 percent favorable and 40 percent unfavorable. 

Jones leads among younger voters, up 11 points among those younger than 40 and 4 points among those in their 40s, but he’s behind with voters older than 50 by 9 points. And candidate Anthony Frascone of the Working Families Party, a progressive third party, takes 6 percent of voters younger than 40 and 3 percent overall, according to the poll, potentially hurting Jones. 

Seven percent of respondents in that race say they are undecided. 

The race for the 18th District sees a large gender gap, with Ryan leading among women 54 percent to 34 percent and Esposito leading among men 52 percent to 40 percent. Both candidates are viewed decently favorably, but Ryan has an advantage in name recognition, with 23 percent not being familiar with Esposito. 

The presidential race is similarly close in both districts, according to the poll. Vice President Harris and former President Trump are tied in the 17th District at 49 percent each, while Trump narrowly leads 48 percent to 47 percent in the 18th.

Although New York as a whole is likely to vote comfortably for Harris in November, a few key districts could be crucial to the House majority. Republicans picked up a few seats in the state in 2022, including Lawler’s, helping the GOP narrowly win control of the chamber. 

If Democrats can flip those seats back, that could be all that’s needed to win back the majority. Republicans are hoping to hold on to those seats and add others, like Ryan’s, to pad their majority. 

The poll was conducted from Oct. 1-3 among 630 likely voters in each district. The margin of error is 3.8 points.