Hurricane Milton may be October surprise in presidential battle

The intensification of Hurricane Milton into a Category 5 storm headed straight for Florida will pose a serious test for the Biden-Harris administration, which has already been stretched by the devastating impact of Hurricane Helene in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.

President Biden and Vice President Harris, who have already visited parts of the country hit by Helene, have worked hard to stay on top of the federal recovery effort, but their leadership skills will be tested in new ways when Milton, which is generating wind speeds of 175 mph, slams into Florida.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) posted a map Monday afternoon on the social platform X warning that communities along the west coast of his state could be hit with an 8-foot to 12-foot storm surge.

Bracing for the huge storm, Biden on Monday signed an emergency declaration for Florida, citing more than three dozen counties that could be impacted by the storm.

The stakes are high for Harris, who has a higher favorability rating than former President Trump but trails the Republican on the trait of “leadership” in some battleground states.

“This is really going to depend on the impact of Hurricane Milton that’s about to impact Florida and most likely [cause] lots more rain over North Carolina. That’s really going to test the federal government’s response. If there are any shortfalls in the National Guard’s or FEMA’s plans to help those states that are in the path of Milton, Trump will be viewed as someone who will say, ‘I told you so,’” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist, using an abbreviation for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

“Trump could absolutely take advantage of that if they haven’t planned it all the way through,” he added. “It’s really going to be a test. … We’re talking about trying to convince small amounts of independent voters to go one way or another.”

While Harris leads Trump when voters are asked to rate which candidate is more compassionate or honest, she has yet to fully establish her leadership credentials on handling the economy and national security, to name two top issues, in the minds of some voters.

Strategists in both parties are looking back to Hurricane Sandy, which slammed into the mid-Atlantic states shortly before Election Day 2012.

They say then-President Obama’s adroit response to the disaster, which was captured in visual terms by Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie warmly greeting the president on the tarmac of Atlantic City International Airport in late October, helped seal his victory over GOP nominee Mitt Romney.

Twelve years later, the Republican governors of Florida and Georgia, Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp, realize the optics and political stakes of the moment, and are carefully steering clear of any photo ops that might make Harris look presidential.

DeSantis on Monday declined to take Harris’s call as a DeSantis aide explained it appeared to be “political.”

Kemp, meanwhile, is keeping his distance from Harris, who visited Georgia last week, and instead appeared with Trump at an event in Columbia County.

Harris announced at a press event last week in Augusta, Ga., that FEMA would provide $750 to people who need immediate help because of Helene.

The situation could get dramatically worse in Florida and other states over the next few days as another huge storm comes barreling down on Tampa and Sarasota while the streets and sidewalks of local communities are still lined with debris from the last storm.

“They’re going to have to turn around very quickly and try and deliver everything that’s needed under tremendous pressure. They’re still dealing with the previous storm,” said Jim Manley, a Democratic strategist.

Manley said Biden and Harris are going to need to stay focused on disaster relief, despite the needs of the competitive presidential campaign, which is being fought in states across the country.

“They’re on overdrive right now,” he said of Biden and Harris. “Many Republicans are doing everything they can to try and sow confusion, but they’re going to have to stay focused and do what they need to do to help tens of thousands of Americans.”

Trump, who is tied with Harris in North Carolina and trailing her in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, is trying to sow doubts about Harris’s competence and sees the federal response to the two major storms as a big opportunity to shift the dynamics of the race.

Trump has relentlessly attacked the federal response effort, though several of his claims have already been debunked by Kemp and others.

Trump has falsely accused the Harris administration of spending “all of her FEMA money” on housing for migrants who illegally crossed the border, and also claimed that hurricane victims would only get $750 each from the federal government, not taking into account billions of dollars more in federal aid that will flow to the hardest-hit areas.

He also claimed Kemp couldn’t get in touch with Biden to discuss Georgia’s needs, though the governor himself contradicted the former president by telling reporters last week that he spoke directly with Biden, who asked him, “Hey, what do you need?”

The swirl of rumors prompted FEMA last week to launch a website to address “false or misleading information” that it warned could harm survivors “by causing confusion and preventing people from getting the help they need.”

“Trump is reaching for any topic that will move the last 5 percent of undecided voters. He knows disasters are traumatic for those in affected areas and wants to use their difficult circumstances to push people in his direction,” said Darrell West, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution.

“His problem is he is promoting false narratives that local officials are contradicting,” he said. 

Republican pollster Whit Ayres warned that spreading false statements about the recovery effort could backfire on Republicans.

“The most effective messages are those that have the benefit of being true. When you have Republicans directly [contradicting] Trump’s argument, like Gov. Kemp, all it does is reinforce the people who are already on his side and doesn’t persuade anyone else to join him,” he said.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told CBS’s “Face the Nation” that relief supplies are moving into western North Carolina more slowly than he wants, but he noted that many roads in the area remain closed.

He called for a “coordinated response” from the military and FEMA to clear and repair roads.

Asked about the impact of misinformation on recovery efforts, Tillis warned “discipline is absolutely necessary.”

“I believe that we have to stay focused on rescue operations, recovery operations, clearing operations. And we don’t need any of these distractions on the ground. It’s at the expense of the hardworking first responders,” he said.