Allan Lichtman: October surprise ‘huge myth,’ Harris will win

(NewsNation) — The “October surprise” is a “huge myth” in American politics, according to the historian who devised the “Keys to the White House” formula.

Allan Lichtman, a historian and American University professor, has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984 using a formula of 13 true-or-false questions.

“My system is based upon the fundamental forces that drive elections. … It’s governing, not campaigning, that counts,” Lichtman said on NewsNation’s “CUOMO.” “I’ve always made my predictions before then (October) and I never change them.”

Frank Luntz, a renowned pollster and communications consultant, said polling this year is not indicative of virtually anything. 

Lichtman is “brilliant” and “he’s proven it through decades of success,” Luntz said.

He previously told “NewsNation Live” that “cataclysmic events” have had a mixed but important effect on the keys assessing the White House party’s strength and performance. If six keys go against the White House party, his system predicts a loss, he explained.

Those indicators: Party mandate, party contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military policy failure, foreign/military policy success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

Looking ahead to November, eight of the keys favor Vice President Harris, while three do not, according to Lichtman.

The final two keys — foreign policy success and failure — could go either way but won’t sway the final outcome, he predicted.

NewsNation is owned by Nexstar Media Wire, which also owns The Hill.

Katie Smith contributed to this report.