2024 election poised to shatter spending records
The 2024 election is on track to be the most expensive in American history, raising questions about the flow of money across the country and its potential impact.
The total cost of the 2024 federal election is projected to top $15.9 billion, a nominal record, according to a new report from OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan nonprofit that tracks money in politics.
“It’s funny. As there seems to be fewer and fewer persuadable voters in each presidential election, the costs of campaigns have continued to climb,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of the election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.
Outside spending alone is set to top $5 billion, blowing by previous spending by groups such as super PACs that can raise and spend unlimited sums of money — as long as they don’t coordinate with candidates.
“Super PACs and billionaires continue to spend more and more hoping to select our elected officials. And right now, it is looking as though there isn’t a ceiling to how much an election in the U.S. can cost,” said Brendan Glavin, deputy research director at OpenSecrets.
Beneath the behemoth top-line figure, there are a number of trends to explore, from the impact of Vice President Harris’s entrance into the race in July to the biggest sources of fundraising to how that money is being spent.
Here’s what you need to know about the money flowing into 2024 elections.
Money matters
Money has always played a big role in elections, and that role has only grown in recent election cycles.
“While money alone doesn’t guarantee electoral success, every candidate wants to have enough money to get their message out and be able to fight back against attacks,” said Michael Beckel, research director at Issue One, an organization that advocates for limits on money in politics.
Adrienne Uthe, founder and strategic adviser to the public relations firm Kronus Communications, said money “doesn’t just matter — it dictates airtime, influences narratives, and shapes the political landscape.”
“As more outside cash floods the field, the real question becomes: whose voices are being amplified, and whose are drowned out? We’re seeing not just an election but a strategic investment in America’s future by a select few,” Uthe said.
Small donations of less than $200 account for 16 percent of all political contributions so far this cycle, according to OpenSecrets, down from 22 percent during the 2020 election cycle.
Ten individual donors have contributed $599 million, or 7 percent of all federal fundraising, the report found.
This is also the first cycle where the top five mega-donors are all supporting Republicans, giving the GOP a significant edge over Democrats when it comes to outside spending.
But, Beckel notes, both Republicans and Democrats have embraced the outside groups and the mega-donors that fund them.
“Megadonors have the ability to single-handedly fund super PACs and dark money groups, should they choose to,” Beckel said. “To raise massive sums, candidates’ official campaign committees must rely on scores and scores of donors, but super PACs and dark money groups need only find a single generous backer, or just a handful of generous backers, to raise enormous sums.”
More than $2.5 billion has already been spent by outside groups such as super PACs this election cycle, according to OpenSecrets, within striking distance of the $3.3 billion spent during the 2020 cycle.
Running for office has become progressively more expensive since the Supreme Court’s controversial 2010 Citizens United decision, which opened the door to unlimited spending in federal elections.
The average House candidate needed $2.4 million to win in 2020, up from $1.4 million in 2008, according to OpenSecrets. The average Senate candidate needed $27.2 million in 2020, up from $8.5 million in 2008.
“When a candidate has more money, that means they’ll have to make fewer tough choices about how to deploy their resources,” Beckel said. “If your budget is limited, you’ll have to make tough decisions about how to use your finite resources, such as restricting which markets you’ll be able to advertise in or how many ads you’ll be able to air.”
While the candidate with the most money often ends up winning the election, that’s not always the case. And Coleman identified “somewhat diminishing returns” when it comes to spending in elections.
“After you run so many ads, there are some voters who tend to just tune them out,” he said.
Battle for Congress, Harris entrance energize spending
Razor-thin margins in Congress, a close contest for the White House and Vice President Harris’s entrance into the race are a few factors driving spending in federal elections so far this election cycle.
“Both Democrats and Republicans think they can prevail in the battle for which party controls the levers of power in Washington in 2025,” Beckel said.
“Party leaders are urging donors to dig deep into their wallets and give generously to help determine the policy agenda of the coming years,” he added.
Ken Gross, senior political law counsel and consultant at the legal and lobbying giant Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, said “virtually all” of the money is being spent in key races.
“The so-called ‘air war’ in the battleground states is in full swing for both presidential campaigns and, down ballot campaigns, in close races,” said Gross, former associate general counsel of the Federal Election Commission.
Coleman said there is overall a “smaller” playing field of competitive House and Senate races this cycle. If Senate Democrats lose either Montana or Ohio, “that’s pretty much the ball game” for the upper chamber, he said.
“In terms of the House, something we look at is outside spending. Major outside PACs have so far spent in 41 districts. At about this time two years ago, that number was closer to 60,” Coleman said.
Harris’s entrance into the race over the summer also prompted massive fundraising hauls for Democrats in July and August. Her campaign said it raised about $615 million during those months.
“Spending on the 2024 election cycle started slowly but ramped up significantly when Vice President Harris took over the Democratic nomination,” said Sarah Bryner, director of research and strategy at OpenSecrets.
Coleman said Harris’s entrance into the race “helped with a ‘vibe’ shift” in the party that contributed to the surge in fundraising.
“Before Biden got out, the mood of the party seemed to be deflated. The perception seemed to be that with Harris in, victory was at least within reach, so that likely helped fundraising,” he said.
Neither campaign has yet announced its September haul, but OpenSecrets estimates Harris and the Democratic Party raised a total of about $1 billion from July through September.
Trump, on the other hand, could struggle to match his 2020 fundraising numbers, according to the OpenSecrets analysis.
But the former president has reportedly outsourced much of his ground game to the pro-Trump super PAC Make America Great Again Inc., which has spent more than $239 million supporting him.
2024 Election Coverage
The pro-Harris super PAC Future Forward has spent more than $212 million supporting Harris and President Biden so far this election cycle.
Ultimately, however, Gross said campaign funds were “more valuable than super PAC money.”
“For example, outsourcing [get-out-the-vote efforts] to a super PAC, such as the Trump campaign has reportedly done, carries some risk. Time will tell on that issue,” Gross said.
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