Hurricane Milton is on a collision course with Florida’s west coast and has the potential to be “one of the most destructive” on record, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Milton is expected to make landfall Wednesday evening, battering a region that’s still recovering from Hurricane Helene, which devastated six states across the Southeast only two weeks ago. The back-to-back weather events have strained federal, state and local resources, while creating a humanitarian crisis in western North Carolina. They’ve also provoked a nasty back-and-forth between U.S. political leaders with less than a month to go before a razor-tight election that will determine which party controls the White House, the Senate and the House. The latest on Milton, as Florida braces for disaster … - The NHC says Milton could bring 150 mph winds and a deadly 15-foot storm surge.
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Dozens of counties in Florida are under a state of emergency, and the roads are packed with evacuees.
- President Biden said Tuesday that Milton could be “the worst storm to hit Florida in over a century.”
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Tampa Bay mayor Jane Castor (D) told CNN that “if you choose to stay … you are going to die.”
Hurricane Milton has scrambled Washington politics before it even makes landfall … - The White House announced Tuesday that Biden had postponed his planned trip to Germany and Angola. He’ll stay in Washington to oversee preparations for Hurricane Milton and continue coordinating the response to Hurricane Helene.
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Trump’s scheduled town hall with Univision on Tuesday night in Miami has been postponed until Oct. 16.
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Some lawmakers are calling on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to reconvene the House for a vote on emergency funding. Johnson has so far resisted, pointing to remarks from Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who says the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has the necessary resources for now.
Beyond the humanitarian crisis, there are concerns that the two devastating hurricanes will disrupt voting in key swing states, including Florida, North Carolina and Georgia, which were all badly hit by Helene. In addition, the politics and backbiting are playing out on the national scene: -
Vice President Harris said she tried to get a hold of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), but he did not take her call. She accused him of playing “political gamesmanship.”
- DeSantis is furious, calling Harris “delusional.” DeSantis said he’s been in constant contact with Biden and FEMA, and that he has the resources he needs.
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“Why all of the sudden is she trying to parachute in and inject herself when she’s never shown any interest in the past?,” DeSantis said Tuesday on Fox News. “We know it’s because of politics, we know it’s because of her campaign … Harris is not even in the chain of command. She has no role in this. The idea that I should be, like, worrying about her when I’m focused on the task at hand is just quite frankly absurd.
- Biden said Tuesday that DeSantis has been “cooperative.”
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“I talked to [DeSantis] again yesterday and I said…I know you’re doing a great job,” Biden said. “It’s being all — being done well, we thank you for it and I literally gave him my personal phone number to call, so I don’t know — there was a rough start in some places, but every governor — every governor — from Florida to North Carolina, has been fully cooperative and supportive and acknowledged what this team is doing and they’re doing an incredible job. But we got a lot more work to do.”
Elsewhere, Harris and FEMA director Deanne Criswell are unloading on former President Trump for his claims that the government is redirecting disaster relief to illegal immigrants. - “It is the height of irresponsibility and frankly, callousness. So, lives are literally at stake right now,” Harris said on ABC’s “The View.”
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Criswell said Trump’s claims that FEMA lacks on-the-ground personnel and that the federal government does not have adequate recovery aid available for victims are “completely false.”
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Criswell said there are more than 3,400 personnel from federal agencies on the ground in North Carolina alone and that the federal government “will continue to bring in more resources as we go into the recovery and the long-term needs that these communities have.”
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Trump has claimed that FEMA is only providing $750 to disaster survivors. FEMA disputes that claim, saying there is much more available through an array of federal programs.
Perspectives: - Matt Stoller: Could Hurricane Milton provoke a financial crisis?
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JD Vance: Biden-Harris mismanaged Hurricane Helene.
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Welcome to Evening Report! I’m Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what’s coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here. |
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The U.S. is not actively trying to revive a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, an acknowledgement that the White House has a better chance of trying to shape and limit Israeli operations in Lebanon rather than halt hostilities there.
More than a dozen states are suing TikTok, alleging the platform exploits and harms young users while “deceiving” the public about these dangers.
The largest U.S. water utility was hit by a cyberattack.
The Biden administration will require the removal of most lead-contaminated water pipes within the next 10 years.
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A U.S. judge ordered sweeping changes to Google’s Android app store, the latest in a wave of challenges to the tech giants.
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© Illustration / Courtney Jones; Julia Nikhinson and Matt Rourke, Associated Press; and Adobe Stock |
Polling static amid campaign chaos
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The race for the White House feels topsy-turvy, but the polls won’t budge. Pollsters and election analysts largely agree — the U.S. presidential race is headed for a photo finish, and it’s possible that nothing will happen between now and November to alter the dynamics. Here’s the latest from Nate Silver, whose current model gives Vice President Harris a 55 percent chance of defeating former President Trump, which is a statistical toss-up: “I’ve never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50, and I probably never will,” Silver wrote.
“On average, since our forecast relaunch on July 30, Harris has won 49.4 percent of simulations, and Trump has won 50.2 percent.” The latest round of polling released Tuesday did nothing to change that, with most of the movement taking place within the margin of error. -
The latest New York Times/Siena College survey finds Harris leading Trump 49-46 nationally, after the prior poll found the race knotted at 47. President Biden led the same poll by 9 points at this point in 2020.
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The latest Reuters national survey has Harris ahead by 3 points. She led the prior survey by 6 points.
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Democrats had seen signs of gains in two red states that gave them hope, but The New York Times/Siena poll found Trump leading by 13 points in Florida and by 6 points in Texas.
Here are The Hill/Decision Desk HQ averages for the 7 battlegrounds that will determine the outcome. AZ: Trump +0.7 GA: Trump: +0.7 MI: Tied NV: Harris +1.8
NC: Trump +0.7 PA: Harris +0.5 WI: Harris +0.6 Remarkably, the candidates are separated by less than 1 point in every state except Nevada. But what to make of Harris’s 3.3 point national lead? -
There’s a case that Harris should have a wider national lead. Biden led by 7.2 points in RealClearPolitics average heading into the 2020 election. He won the popular vote by about 4.5 points, and that only enabled him to squeeze by Trump by several tens of thousands of votes in the states that mattered.
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There’s also a case that Trump’s Electoral College advantage has eroded. He’s performing better among Latino and Black voters, which could boost his vote count in states such as New York and California, which are not in play for the GOP nominee. That means he might do better in the national popular vote, while performing in line with expectations in the battlegrounds.
But nobody knows for sure. Here’s how CNN’s election analyst Harry Enten put it: “The average state polling miss is 3.4 pts since 1972. All swing states are within that. The true margin of error of state poll averages is way bigger (+/- 9.4 pts). Anything from a Trump 300+ electoral vote win to Harris doing the same is possible.” Perspectives:
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© Alex Brandon, Associated Press; John Hart, Wisconsin State Journal via AP |
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Battle for the Senate goes down to the wire
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Republicans are favored to win a slim majority in the Senate, but nothing seems certain as a chaotic election cycle heads into the home stretch.
Republicans are all but guaranteed to flip West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin (I) is retiring. Polls show former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) leading Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana.
Those two races would give the GOP a 51-49 majority, assuming Republicans don’t fumble away any Senate races in red states.
Republicans would love to cushion that potential majority by defeating Democratic incumbents in Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona or Nevada. They’re also hopeful former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) can pull an upset in a deep blue state.
Democrats, meanwhile, feel most of their incumbents are running strong in the presidential battlegrounds. They’re hopeful independent candidate Dan Osborn can pull a stunner against Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) in Nebraska, while also keeping tabs on Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Texas), who appear to be running weaker than former President Trump in their home states.
Here’s a roundup from the heated campaign battles that will shape the next Senate: |
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“Biden’s Middle East diplomacy failed. Now he must back Israel’s military action,” by Douglas Schoen and Saul Mangel for The Hill.
“Private equity decimated emergency care in the U.S.,” by Karen Landman for Vox. “Lessons from Detroit for Chicago’s public schools and teacher’s union,” by the Editorial Board at The Chicago Tribune. |
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28 days until the 2024 general election.
104 days until Inauguration Day 2025. |
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Tuesday - Harris appears on CBS’s “The Late Show.”
- Biden campaigns for Sen. Bob Casey (D) in Pa.
Wednesday - Trump campaigns in Scranton, Pa., and Reading, Pa.
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