Swing-state voters almost evenly split in presidential race: Survey

Swing state voters are almost evenly split in the 2024 presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris, according to a Wall Street Journal poll released Friday. 

Harris had slender leads in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin, places where third-party and independent candidates are on the ballot. Trump had leads in Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

The biggest gap was in Nevada, where the ex-president was up by 5 percentage points, but no candidate’s lead in a state was outside the poll’s margin of error. Trump leads by 1 point in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, according to the poll.

Harris had a 2-point lead in Arizona and Michigan, and a 1-point lead in Georgia and Wisconsin.

The vice president had a slight upper hand with independents across the battlegrounds, amassing 40 percent support to Trump’s 39 percent, the survey showed. 

Registered voters had more trust in Trump on the economy, 50 percent to 40 percent; inflation, 50 percent to 39 percent; and immigration, 52 percent 36 percent. They preferred Harris on housing affordability, 45 percent to 42 percent; health care, 48 percent to 40 percent; and caring about people like them, 46 percent to 40 percent.

The ex-president had the advantage on being perceived as standing up for American workers, with a 2-point lead, 47 percent to 45 percent, according to the poll. 

Quinnipiac University polling released Wednesday showed a similar picture of the two candidates locked in tight races across the Rust Belt battleground states.

That survey showed Trump leading in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Harris had the advantage among likely voters in Pennsylvania. 

Harris has a lead of 3 percentage points over Trump, 49.7 percent 46.7 nationally, according to The Hill/Desk Decision HQ’s latest aggregate of polls.

The Wall Street Journal poll was conducted between Sept. 28 and Oct. 8 among 4,200 swing-state voters. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.