Connecticut House Democrat locked in tight race for reelection: Poll

An incumbent House Democrat from Connecticut is locked in a tight race for reelection against her Republican challenger, a new poll shows.

The survey, released Tuesday from Emerson College Polling/WTNH/WCTX/The Hill, found Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) leading Republican George Logan by 3 points — 49 percent to 46 percent. Roughly 1 percent said they would support someone else, while 5 percent were undecided. 

Connecticut is one of the most solidly Democratic-leaning states in the country, but the state’s 5^th Congressional District is much more competitive than the other districts. Hayes narrowly defeated Logan by less than 1 point in 2022, winning her third term in office, but the district has not elected a Republican to the House in 20 years. 

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson polling, noted in a release that the poll showed a “stark” gender divide, with Hayes leading among women by 15 points and Logan leading among men by 10 points. 

Both candidates are viewed decently favorably by respondents, though Logan has a slight advantage in net favorability. Hayes is viewed favorably by 52 percent and unfavorably by 43 percent, while Logan is viewed favorably by 49 percent and unfavorably by 33 percent, according to the poll.

Hayes, however, has an advantage in name recognition, with 18 percent saying they are not familiar with Logan compared to just 6 percent who said the same about the incumbent.

The candidates are roughly even in the support they receive from their own party, but Logan leads among independents by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent, the data shows.

The poll also found the results for the presidential contest and the state’s Senate race are close. Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 1 point, while Sen. Chris Murphy (D) leads Republican Matt Corey by 6 points.

Both Harris and Murphy are likely to easily win in the state overall, a Democratic stronghold. 

The race may still be an uphill battle for Republicans. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s forecast model rates the race as “likely Democrat,” while Cook Political Report rates the race as “lean Democrat.” 

The poll was conducted from Oct. 9-11 among 725 likely voters. The credibility interval, which is similar to margin of error, was 3.6 percentage points.