Morning Report — Trump, Harris take risks down the home stretch

by Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch - 10/16/24 6:20 AM ET

Editor’s note: The Hill’s Morning Report is our daily newsletter that dives deep into Washington’s agenda. To subscribe, click here or fill out the box below.

In today’s issue:

Harris courts Trump-skeptical voters
Trump finds chilly reception for tariffs
Disaster funding tests Speaker’s sway
U.S. to Israel: More Gaza aid or else

In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, Vice President Harris and former President Trump are ramping up efforts to reach voters where they’re at — and directly addressing those who aren’t traditionally part of their base.

Harris will sit down for an interview with Fox News today, an opportunity to appeal to conservative and undecided voters and not play it safe.

Her agreement to an interview with Fox’s Bret Baier highlights a willingness to take more risks as polls tighten in the final weeks of the campaign, write The Hill’s Alex Gangitano and Brett Samuels. During her first few weeks on the ballot, Harris faced scrutiny over whether she was being too cautious in her interactions with the press and offered a limited policy agenda, even as she surged in the polls and raked in cash after replacing President Biden atop the ticket.

Harris is spending more time highlighting aspects of her life and her resume that appeal to voters who are turned off by Trump and are looking to learn more about her. Since July, The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports, Harris has framed the race as the prosecutor versus the “convicted felon,” a title Democrats have used to label Trump.

On Tuesday, the vice president agreed with radio host Charlamagne tha God when he called Trump’s vision one of “fascism.” Trump’s campaign quickly responded on the social platform X to suggest that such rhetoric risks political violence.

Harris has also sought to appeal to undecided voters in key swing states by touting her prosecutorial chops. Last week, in an interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes” and earlier in an interview with Oprah Winfrey, Harris discussed owning a gun. And during a lengthy discussion with shock jock Howard Stern the vice president said, “I have put a lot of people in jail.”

Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau said it’s an effective strategy to “counter what some voters assume she is.”

“Republicans have created this narrative of a wild-eyed crazy liberal from California,” Mollineau said. “This is her filling in pieces of her bio and presenting who she really is. To the extent that Trump talks a lot about crime and law and order, it’s a counterbalance to that. I think this is her saying, ‘The caricature people have painted of me is untrue, and who I am is a lot more nuanced.’”

Both Trump and Harris are ramping up efforts to woo new, young, undecided voters who largely eschew traditional media in the final stretch of their campaign. And former President Obama’s recent call to action to Black men has reignited concerns around whether those potential voters will show up for Harris in November.

In The Memo, The Hill’s Niall Stanage notes that the Fox interview is just the latest example of Harris’s effort to court voters who may be right-leaning but skeptical of Trump. The strategy, which also includes endorsements from figures such as former Vice President Dick Cheney and an open pursuit of people who voted for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in the GOP primary, has obvious upsides. But it also has risks, including any possible missteps or a broader unease among progressives over Harris’s effort to tack toward the center.

“It’s hard” for Harris to win over conservative voters, said Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf.

“It’s possible to switch voters, but it’s more of an attitude that she is pushing,” he said. “It’s pushing back on the allegation from Trump that she is not smart and doesn’t have the courage to do these interviews. She is going into the lion’s den.”

SMART TAKE WITH THE HILL’S BOB CUSACK:

Pollsters have been trying to get a handle for two years on the biggest question: Who will win in 2024?

The data has been remarkably consistent, though it doesn’t give us a clear answer. The contest between Trump and Harris is a complete toss-up.

The Hill has been partnering with Mark Penn of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll for years and Mark’s last batch of polls before the election came out this week. In our monthly podcast, we break down why both candidates can win.

Harris is regarded as the “change” candidate, but 6 in 10 Americans think the country is on the wrong track.

Trump enjoys polling advantages on most policy issues, including the economy and immigration. Harris has, however, closed the gap since Biden stepped aside.

Fourteen percent of the country still hasn’t decided whom to vote for. Those undecideds will likely decide the election, but we won’t know until Nov. 5 — and perhaps days beyond — whom they settled on.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY:

▪ Look up! October’s supermoon, the third in 2024, is the closest of the year tonight and will team up with a comet for a rare stargazing two-for-one.

▪ Walgreens announced Tuesday it will close 1,200 locations, including about 500 stores over the next year, to contend with online competitors and declining prescription drug payments.

▪ Climate change is affecting homes. This model shows the risk in your county.

LEADING THE DAY

© The Associated Press | Evan Vucci

Trump on Tuesday clashed while promoting tariffs in a back-and-forth with Bloomberg News top editor John Micklethwait during a Chicago Economic Club event. “It’s going to be a positive effect,” Trump said. It’s an assertion challenged by many economists and business leaders who describe high tariffs on international goods as injurious to the U.S. “It must be hard for you to spend 25 years talking about tariffs as being negative and then have somebody explain to you that you’re totally wrong,” Trump added in response to a detailed series of questions.

CNBC “Squawk Box” host Joe Kernan said Tuesday on his business-focused program that Trump through his campaign canceled an interview this week that neither CNBC nor the campaign had previously announced.

Trump appeared Tuesday in Georgia for taping of a Fox News town hall event with an all-female audience, to air today at 11 a.m. ET. He fielded questions about his plans for the economy, public safety and immigration and revisited promises to lower energy prices by 50 percent, expand the child tax credit and outlaw sanctuary cities. He repeated his view that Democrats are America’s “enemy within” and blasted Democrats as “a threat to democracy.”

HURRICANES Helene and Milton are gone but their turbulence lingers. They’ve created new complications for election officials and residents in affected states. Misinformation and conspiracy theories, still in circulation after Trump and others criticized the administration’s disaster response, continue to strain the patience of state and federal officials and hinder the help that’s needed in many communities. The experience is seen by many as a warning ahead of Election Day.

2024 ELECTION ROUNDUP:

New York: GOP Rep. Mike Lawler (R) is seeking reelection in a swing district where he defeated a top Democrat in 2022. The New York Times’s “The Daily” podcast explained Tuesday how the outcome of the blue-state contest in Lawler’s district could help shape the 2025 direction of the House. He’s challenged by progressive former Rep. Mondaire Jones in a tight race that Democrats would like to win in a region an hour north of New York City. The contest also has its share of intrigue surrounding Working Families Party candidate Anthony Frascone.

Georgia: Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney on Tuesday temporarily blocked a new rule from the state’s election board that would require counties to count Election Day ballots by hand. He said the provision was implemented too close to Nov. 5 and would cause “administrative chaos.”

Iowa: In their fight to flip the House, Democrats are eyeing gains in an unlikely spot where two GOP seats have emerged as true battlegrounds.

North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R), a controversial gubernatorial candidate, sued CNN while again denying its report about alleged porn site posts attributed to him.

Battleground bloc: Mormon voters are increasingly seen as a crucial swing vote, with both Harris and Trump stepping up their campaign outreach efforts to that demographic.

WHERE AND WHEN

The House will convene a pro forma session Friday at 10:30 a.m. The Senate will hold a pro forma session Friday at 11 a.m.
The president this afternoon will deliver a eulogy for Ethel Kennedy, who died Oct. 10 at age 96, at Cathedral of St. Matthew the Apostle in Washington and return to the White House. Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 4 p.m. Biden and first lady Jill Biden will host an East Room reception at 5:30 p.m. to mark Italian American Heritage Month.
The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at noon.
Candidate schedules this week: Harris today will campaign in Upper Makefield Township in Bucks County, Pa., and be interviewed by Fox News anchor Bret Baier, to air at 6 p.m. ET. On Thursday, she’ll campaign in Milwaukee; La Crosse, Wis.; and Green Bay, Wis. On Friday, Harris will be in Grand Rapids, Mich., in the afternoon and Oakland County, Mich., in the evening. On Saturday, Harris will return to Detroit and Atlanta. Sunday is the vice president’s 60th birthday. Trump today will participate in a live Univision town hall, rescheduled from earlier in the month because of Florida hurricanes, and he’ll hold a rally at 7 p.m. in Duluth, Ga. On Friday, the former president will hold a rally in Detroit at 7 p.m. On Saturday, Trump will hold a campaign event in Latrobe, Pa., at 6 p.m. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is in Pennsylvania today. On Thursday, Walz will campaign in Durham, N.C., accompanied by former President Clinton. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) will headline two rallies today, the first in Williamsport, Pa., and the second in Wilmington, N.C. On Thursday, Vance will campaign in Pittsburgh at 12:30 p.m.

ZOOM IN

© The Associated Press | J. Scott Applewhite

Senate Republicans are pumping the brakes on a year-end omnibus spending package as Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) are locked in a battle to become the next Senate GOP leader, The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports.

Senators had thought they would be able to squeeze Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) into bringing a trillion-dollar-plus package to the House floor if it was paired with federal disaster relief. But the appetite among Senate Republicans for jamming Johnson with a huge spending bill is fading.

Trump’s druthers are factored in, should he be elected. Backing an omnibus bill that Trump opposes would not strengthen a new working relationship for the next Senate GOP leader, according to Senate sources.

The other key consideration is Johnson’s future as Speaker. He says he is committed to passing disaster relief for states hit hard by hurricanes Helene and Milton, but he has tried to rule out the possibility of passing another huge omnibus package before Christmas.

Some Senate Democrats had believed they could put pressure on Johnson to pass an omnibus his conservative colleagues oppose by pairing it with disaster relief, but that plan is losing momentum. “The biggest thing is the Johnson element,” said a Senate GOP aide. “If they can hold onto [the majority] over there, his job depends on” not passing an omnibus.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) disaster relief fund and the Small Business Administration are at the top of the list for new infusions of funding, according to some anxious lawmakers. The administration said Tuesday the nation’s loan program for disaster survivors has fully exhausted its funding.

“It can wait,” Johnson told CBS’s “Face the Nation” Sunday. “Congress will meet, and in a bipartisan fashion, we will address those needs. We’ll provide the additional resources.”

FEMA “has plenty of resources” in the near term, he added.

MEANWHILE IN 2025, Congress’s major battles are likely to be over taxes. There’s a growing possibility of divided government, which has some lawmakers and lobbyists predicting the tax fight could stretch into 2026 and beyond.

Tax proposals are flying before Election Day. Beneath candidates’ tax promises and the appeals for votes, a relatively coherent new direction for a more industrialized U.S. economy is emerging, with two distinct paths proposed by Democrats and Republicans.

AHEAD: House Republicans plan to hold leadership elections in Washington during the week of Nov. 12. Orientation for freshmen members who will join Congress next year is scheduled Nov. 12-22.

ELSEWHERE

© The Associated Press | Fatima Shbair

HUMANITARIAN CONDITIONS: The White House sharply intensified pressure on Israel this week to improve dire conditions for civilians in Gaza, warning that it would be forced to take corrective measures — potentially including a suspension of military aid — if the flow of humanitarian aid is not increased within a month.

In an Oct. 13 letter to senior Israeli officials, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin demanded urgent steps to ensure that civilians have access to food and other necessities, blaming the Israeli government for permitting a deterioration of conditions in Gaza, The Washington Post reports. In Gaza, Israel has waged one of the century’s most destructive wars against Hamas, killing more than 40,000 and plunging at least half of the population into “famine-like conditions.”

Meanwhile, as Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade fire across the Lebanese border, Hezbollah’s deputy chief Naim Qassem said on Tuesday the Iran-backed group would inflict “pain” on Israel, but he also called for a cease-fire. Israel has been increasing the pressure on Hezbollah since it began incursions into the region.

“The solution is a cease-fire, we are not speaking from a position of weakness, if the Israelis do not want that, we will continue,” Qassem said in a recorded speech.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that he would not agree to a cease-fire deal that failed to stop Hezbollah rearming and regrouping.

The Wall Street Journal: Inside Israel’s ground offensive in Lebanon. Thousands of troops are on the hunt for Hezbollah infrastructure along the border.

OPINION

■ A few weird tricks to fix Congress, by The Washington Post editorial board.

■ Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah is working, and the West should back it fully, by Dan Perry, opinion contributor, The Hill.

THE CLOSER

© The Associated Press | John Raoux

And finally … 🐭 On this day in 1923, Walt Disney and his brother Roy founded the Disney Brothers Cartoon Studio in Hollywood, Calif.

Now known as the Walt Disney Company, the studio pioneered animated filmmaking techniques and grew into a global entertainment empire. Just a few years later, Disney and animator Ub Iwerks debuted Mickey Mouse, the cartoon mouse that would soon become synonymous with the company.

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